1 Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany Systems Thinking and Modeling for Policy Analysis and Design Dynamics: Graphs over time Structure:Causal-loop Diagrams Stocks and Flows

2 Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany Events and Decisions Patterns of Behavior System Structure Reactive Adaptive Generative Increasing leverage A Systems Perspective

3 Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany New York, Chicago & Philadelphia,

4 Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany Populations of Selected U.S. Cities,

5 Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany Prejudice and Minority Achievement (Myrdal, Merton) Prejudice Discrimination Opportunities for the minority Achievements of the minority – + – + (R) Prejudice Aspirations of the minority Minority efforts to achieve Minority perceptions of the gap + + – + (B) Striving + (R) Hope or despair

6 Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany Structure and Dynamics of Terrorist Cells New recruits Terrorist group Losses Terrorist actions Suppression activities Zeal Peripheral support Funding Martyrs to the cause (R) (B) (R) (B) (R)

7 Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany The Classic Policy Planning Loop

8 Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany The Classic Loop with Complications

9 Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany The Classic Loop with Complications

10 Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany The Classic Loop with Complications

11 Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany Human Activity, CO2, and Global Temperature Thought experiment:

12 Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany Dynamic Planning for COIN in Afghanistan Source: PA Consulting

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22 Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany Urban Dynamics

23 Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany Systems Thinking in a Nutshell Dynamic thinking Graphs over time Stock-and-flow thinking Accumulations and what changes them Feedback thinking Reinforcing and balancing loops of circular causality Thinking endogenously ‘The fault, dear Brutus, is not in our stars, but in ourselves…’

24 Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany Policy Resistance of Complex Systems

25 Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany Policy Resistance of Complex Systems

26 Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany Policy Resistance of Complex Systems

27 Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany Policy Resistance in Complex Systems