Modelling Needs and Resources of Older People to 2030 A collaborative research project funded by the Research Councils’ New Dynamics of Ageing programme.

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Presentation transcript:

Modelling Needs and Resources of Older People to 2030 A collaborative research project funded by the Research Councils’ New Dynamics of Ageing programme

Partners Academic London School of Economics (Dept of Social Policy, Personal Social Services Research Unit) University of Leicester (Dept of Health Sciences) London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (Centre for Population Studies) University of Essex (Dept of Health & Human Sciences) Pensions Policy Institute Non-academic Department for Work and Pensions

Aims To produce high quality analysis to inform public debate and development of future long-term care and pensions policy up to 2030 To produce high quality analysis to inform public debate and development of future long-term care and pensions policy up to 2030By projecting the numbers, disability status, family circumstances, income, savings and care needs of older people, over the next 30 years projecting the numbers, disability status, family circumstances, income, savings and care needs of older people, over the next 30 years assessing the affordability and distribution of costs and benefits of combined policy options for pensions and long-term care assessing the affordability and distribution of costs and benefits of combined policy options for pensions and long-term care accounting for links between care needs and economic resources in later life accounting for links between care needs and economic resources in later life

Methods an integrated programme of new statistical analysis and modelling an integrated programme of new statistical analysis and modelling building on pre-existing models building on pre-existing models sensitivity testing to key trends sensitivity testing to key trends scenarios on key unknowns scenarios on key unknowns

The Team and Time Scale Prof Mike Murphy, LSE Prof Mike Murphy, LSE Profs Carol Jagger & James Lindesay, Leicester Profs Carol Jagger & James Lindesay, Leicester Prof Emily Grundy, LSHTM Prof Emily Grundy, LSHTM Prof Ruth Hancock, Essex Prof Ruth Hancock, Essex Raphael Wittenberg, Adelina Comas- Herrera, Linda Pickard, Derek King, Juliette Malley, PSSRU Raphael Wittenberg, Adelina Comas- Herrera, Linda Pickard, Derek King, Juliette Malley, PSSRU Chris Curry, Adam Steventon, PPI Chris Curry, Adam Steventon, PPI Department for Work and Pensions Department for Work and Pensions BT BT Time scale: Jan Dec 2009

5 linked work packages Mortality trends and their implications (WP1) Future disease patterns & their implications for disability in later life (WP2) Changing family units & kinship structure (WP3) Household & family resources (WP4) Projections of pensions, incomes, savings, care (paid & unpaid); expenditure on pensions & long- term care (WP5)

User Engagement & Dissemination An early seminar for users and researchers to discuss the research programme An early seminar for users and researchers to discuss the research programme An advisory group of research users and scholars; 2 meetings a year An advisory group of research users and scholars; 2 meetings a year A web site and a regular newsletter A web site and a regular newsletter Events to discuss early findings and related research by others Events to discuss early findings and related research by others

Further information A web site will be developed with links from all partners’ web sites A web site will be developed with links from all partners’ web sites