Creating Effective Public Policy for Managing Advanced Nanotechnology Mike Treder, Executive Director Center for Responsible Nanotechnology Mike Treder, Executive Director Center for Responsible Nanotechnology February 10, 2005 Expert Group Meeting on Nanotechnology Trieste, Italy

© 2005 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology Introduction From the Aide-Mémoire prepared for this Expert Group Meeting: “…in this moment there is no global effort to promote awareness of the potential applications of nanotechnology for development, to create new regulatory regimes (or build upon existing ones) for managing nanotechnology’s associated risks and for promoting global public goods, to provide a platform for constructive dialogue among all stakeholders including representatives from government, industry, academia and local populations.” My presentation will address this critical lack and will propose some ameliorating strategies.

© 2005 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology Overview Consumer Products of Nanotechnology  The future could hold more than just better tennis balls Analysis of Molecular Manufacturing  Capabilities, benefits, and risks Three Systems of Action  Different principles for different problems Thirty Essential Studies  Unfortunately, more questions than answers NanoFora  Encompassing a range of stakeholders

© 2005 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology Promises of Progress…  Defeat poverty  End starvation and disease  Open up outer space  Expand human capacities  Lengthen our lifespans

© 2005 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology …and Unprecedented Risks  Environmental and health dangers  Massive job displacement  Economic and social disruption  Constant intrusive surveillance  Unstable arms race

© 2005 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology This is Nanotechnology? (According to Forbes)  High-Performance Ski Wax  Breathable Waterproof Ski Jacket  High-Tech Tennis Rackets And Balls  Deep-Penetrating Skin Cream  Wrinkle-Resistant, Stain-Repellent Threads

© 2005 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology Nanotechnology could be…  Not just new products — a new means of production  Manufacturing systems that make more manufacturing systems — exponential proliferation  Vastly accelerated product improvement — cheap rapid prototyping  Affecting all industries and economic sectors — general-purpose technology  Inexpensive raw materials, potentially negligible capital cost — economic discontinuity  Impacts crossing borders — global transformation

© 2005 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology The Feynman Vision I want to build a billion tiny factories, models of each other, which are manufacturing simultaneously. — Nobel prize-winning physicist Richard Feynman

© 2005 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology A Billion Tiny Factories Inner Workings of a Desktop Nanofactory Courtesy of John Burch, Lizard Fire Studios (3D Animation, Game Development)

© 2005 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology The Nanofactory  Integrate large numbers of nanoscale chemical fabrication units  Combine nanoscale pieces into large-scale products  General-purpose manufacturing in a tabletop format  Extremely advanced products with compact functionality  Produce its own weight in hours; produce copies of itself “Design of a Primitive Nanofactory” By Chris Phoenix Director of Research, Center for Responsible Nanotechnology

© 2005 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology Artist's Conception of a Desktop Nanofactory Courtesy of John Burch, Lizard Fire Studios (3D Animation, Game Development) The Nanofactory

© 2005 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology Developing a Nanofactory Three milestones: 1Basic molecular manufacturing: The precise formation of molecular structures under direct mechanical control. 2Exponential molecular manufacturing: The use of nanoscale molecular manufacturing tools to build more of themselves, making it possible to produce large quantities of product. 3Integrated molecular manufacturing: The integration of tools into massively parallel structures, nanofactories, that can combine their outputs into large products.

© 2005 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology Molecular Mill image courtesy of Eric Drexler Jolt to the System The ability to build anything we can design, by manipulating molecules under direct computer control, will be a jolt to the system.

© 2005 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology The ability to build anything we can design, by manipulating molecules under direct computer control, will be a jolt to the system. A transformative, disruptive, discontinuous jolt to ecological, economic, political, and social systems — on a local, national, and global scale. Artist's Conception of a Desktop Nanofactory Courtesy of John Burch, Lizard Fire Studios (3D Animation, Game Development) Jolt to the System

© 2005 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology The combined impacts of nanotechnology will equal the Industrial Revolutions of the last two centuries — but with all that change compressed into just a few years. Change is Coming

© 2005 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology Societal Implications  Rapid design, prototype, refinement  Local manufacturing from local materials  High-performance products  Self-contained, automated factories  Exponential manufacturing  Factories become as cheap as any product  Products become as cheap as raw materials (…as cheap to build, not necessarily to buy…)

© 2005 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology

Benefits + Risks An automated, self-contained factory could provide...

© 2005 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology Benefits + Risks An automated, self-contained factory could provide... Lifesaving medical robots Lifesaving medical robotsor Untraceable weapons of mass destruction

© 2005 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology Benefits + Risks An automated, self-contained factory could provide... Lifesaving medical robots Lifesaving medical robotsor Untraceable weapons of mass destruction Networked computers for everyone in the world or Networked cameras so governments can watch our every move

© 2005 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology Benefits + Risks An automated, self-contained factory could provide... Lifesaving medical robots Lifesaving medical robotsor Untraceable weapons of mass destruction Networked computers for everyone in the world or Networked cameras so governments can watch our every move Trillions of dollars of abundance or A vicious scramble to own everything

© 2005 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology Benefits + Risks An automated, self-contained factory could provide... Lifesaving medical robots Lifesaving medical robotsor Untraceable weapons of mass destruction Networked computers for everyone in the world or Networked cameras so governments can watch our every move Trillions of dollars of abundance or A vicious scramble to own everything Rapid invention of wondrous products or Weapons development fast enough to destabilize any arms race

© 2005 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology Benefits + Risks An automated, self-contained factory could provide... Lifesaving medical robots Lifesaving medical robotsAND Untraceable weapons of mass destruction Networked computers for everyone in the world AND Networked cameras so governments can watch our every move Trillions of dollars of abundance AND A vicious scramble to own everything Rapid invention of wondrous products AND Weapons development fast enough to destabilize any arms race

© 2005 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology Never before has the world faced such a tremendous opportunity… Earth on the Brink

© 2005 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology …and never before have the risks been so great. Earth on the Brink Never before has the world faced such a tremendous opportunity…

© 2005 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology Overview Consumer Products of Nanotechnology  The future holds more than just better tennis balls Analysis of Molecular Manufacturing  Capabilities, benefits, and risks Three Systems of Action  Different principles for different problems Thirty Essential Studies  Unfortunately, more questions than answers NanoFora  Encompassing a range of stakeholders

© 2005 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology Systems of Action "Guardian" Principles Suitable for zero-sum or negative-sum situations  Deceive for the sake of the task  Respect hierarchy  Take vengeance  Be exclusive  Shun trading  Dispense largesse  Exert prowess  Be ostentatious  Be fatalistic  Make rich use of leisure  Be obedient and disciplined  Show fortitude  Adhere to tradition  Treasure honor

© 2005 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology Systems of Action "Commercial" Principles Suitable for positive-sum situations  Be honest  Collaborate easily with strangers  Be thrifty  Use initiative and enterprise  Compete  Be industrious  Respect contracts  Invest for productive purposes  Shun force  Be optimistic  Promote comfort and convenience  Be efficient  Be open to inventiveness  Come to voluntary agreements

© 2005 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology Forming Public Policy Guardian PrinciplesCommercial Principles To solve problems related to the minimizing of harm (theft, invasion) To solve problems related to maximizing wealth (trade, invention) Appropriate for governments and police forces, organizations that defend laws and land Appropriate for business and trade, which seek to increase value to all parties involved From Systems of Survival, by Jane Jacobs

© 2005 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology Systems of Action Guardian Principles Commercial Principles ? ? ? Zero-sum or negative-sum situations Positive-sum situations Unlimited-sum situations GOAL: Maintain and protect status quo GOAL: Improve resource use dynamically Appropriate for governments and police forces, organizations that defend laws and land Appropriate for business and trade, which seek to increase value to all parties involved

© 2005 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology Systems of Action Guardian Principles Commercial Principles Information Principles Zero-sum or negative-sum situations Positive-sum situationsUnlimited-sum situations GOAL: Maintain and protect status quo GOAL: Improve resource use dynamically GOAL: Spread innovation generously Appropriate for governments and police forces, organizations that defend laws and land Appropriate for business and trade, which seek to increase value to all parties involved Appropriate for the production and copying of freely shared information (Creative Commons, Open Source, Free Software)

© 2005 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology Problems Ahead  Information Principles now applied not just to information, but to physical products  Substantial new security (Guardian) issues  Massively disruptive economic (Commercial) impacts

© 2005 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology Worldwide Network Molecular Manufacturing Infrastructure Guardians Regulate usage Commerce Charge tolls Information Groups Enhance infrastructure & products

© 2005 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology Worldwide Network Molecular Manufacturing Infrastructure Guardians Regulate usage Commerce Charge tolls Information Groups Enhance infrastructure & products (See for more information)

© 2005 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology - Intellectual property violations - Manufacture of dangerous products - Makes black market inevitable - Intellectual property violations - Manufacture of dangerous products - Removes incentive for black market - Prevents alleviation of human suffering - Hinders creation of prosperity - Makes black market inevitable - Allows alleviation of human suffering - Fosters creation of unprecedented prosperity - Reduces incentive for black market Nanofactory Control Options T E C H N I C A L R E S T R I C T I O N S DISTRIBUTION & ACCESS Loose Tight

© 2005 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology CRN’s Proposal 1. Create a Molecular Manufacturing Infrastructure  Worldwide network of restricted nanofactories  Maximize benefits  Minimize risks

© 2005 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology CRN’s Proposal 2. Design Decision-Making Structure In Advance  Collaborative international administrative body  Must have global scope  Manage conflict  Balance interests of all three “action” groups

© 2005 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology What is Needed Now  Awareness of the issues  Technical research  Policy research  New networks

© 2005 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology Thirty Essential Studies CRN Chris Phoenix, Director of Research Center for Responsible Nanotechnology Copyright 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology Brooklyn, NY, USACRN Thirty Essential Studies Chris Phoenix, Director of Research Center for Responsible Nanotechnology Copyright 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology Brooklyn, NY, USA

© 2005 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology Unanswered Questions Who will own the technology for molecular manufacturing? Will it be heavily restricted, or widely available? What will it do to the gap between rich and poor? What will be the impact of rapid advances in medical research, diagnosis, and treatment? How can dangerous weapons be controlled, and perilous arms races be prevented? What happens to privacy when powerful surveillance devices are smaller than a mosquito, just as mobile, and so cheap that they are virtually everywhere?

© 2005 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology Thirty Essential Studies Section 1: Technical and Foundational Section 2: Capabilities of Molecular Manufacturing Technologies Section 3: Development of Molecular Manufacturing Technologies Section 4: Product Performance Section 5: Policies and Policymaking

© 2005 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology A collaborative project to study the facts and implications of advanced nanotechnology — a website for researchers worldwide to work together, helping to build an understanding of the technologies, their effects, and what to do about them.

© 2005 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology  The challenges of nanotechnology will have to be addressed by a diverse collection of people and organizations.  No single approach will solve all problems or address all needs.  Issues of multiple stakeholders and world regions (North-South) must be represented. Preparing Solutions

© 2005 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology  The only answer is a collective answer, and that will demand an unprecedented collaboration of leaders in science, technology, business, government, and NGOs.  It will require participation from people of many nations, cultures, languages, and belief systems. Preparing Solutions

© 2005 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology NanoFora  Nanotechnology will affect a broad range of stakeholders  Individual and group goals are diverse and possibly incompatible  Bad policies may multiply rather than cancel bad policy effects  Evaluate and compare policy options from multiple stakeholder group perspectives  Create comprehensive and stable plans to maximize benefits and minimize risks

© 2005 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology META Mediation Reporting OVERVIEW Values System Technology STAKEHOLDERS Social Justice Surveillance & Privacy Arms Control & Geopolitics Sustainable Development Medical Ethics & Research Intellectual Property Knowledge Managemen t Ecological Remediation Policing & Criminology Business & Trade NanoFora Project Structure

© 2005 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology NanoFora  Sound and effective decision-making for nanotechnology public policy  A stable structure for finding policy options that encompasses a range of stakeholders and multiple systems of action

© 2005 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology Summary Consumer Products of Nanotechnology  A revolution in manufacturing is coming Analysis of Molecular Manufacturing  Wonderful benefits and severe risks Three Systems of Action  Different principles for different problems Thirty Essential Studies  Many more questions than answers NanoFora  A project to engage stakeholder participation

© 2005 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology We must develop common understanding, create lines of communication, and build a stable structure to bridge the cliffs and pass safely through the transition into the nano era. Building Bridges