CONFLICT AND COMPROMISE and Public Opinion

Public Protest on Health Care CONFLICT AND COMPROMISE Chapter Opener: The 2009–2010 health care reform debate prompted people from the entire spectrum of anti- and pro-reform advocates to express their views. Common scenes of protest like this one at a Delray Beach, Florida, town hall meeting in August 2009 illustrate the public’s sharp differences of opinion, which subsequently made attempts at compromise in Washington difficult. Photo: AP Photo/Charles Dharapak

Obama on Health Care CONFLICT AND COMPROMISE 5.1: For years, Americans have reported that the nation’s health care system is among their chief concerns. In response to this concern, President Barack Obama made health care reform one of the first big issues he tackled in office. Here the president speaks during a town hall meeting on health care at the Democratic National Committee headquarters in August 2009. Photo: Alex Wong/UPI/Landov 4

Political Messages Fuel the Debate CONFLICT AND COMPROMISE 5.2: While both sides of the health care reform debate argued their stance passionately, it was often unclear if the sources of public opinion on health care were based on fact or hyperbole. In an effort to stall the passage of the health care bill until January 2010, Senator Jon Kyl, R-AZ, and Senator Jeff Session, R-AL, tell the media in December 2009 that passing the health care bill would add hundreds of billions of dollars to the deficit despite Democratic claims to the contrary on Capitol Hill. Contradictory messages like this fueled the public debate and made compromise harder to achieve. Photo: Roger L. Wollenberg/UPI/Landov 5

The Tea Party Influence CONFLICT AND COMPROMISE 5.3: The Tea Party movement, supporters of which are shown here demonstrating against the health care bill outside the U.S. Capitol in March 2010, is a clear example of how public opinion matters in American politics. The Tea Party movement partially grew out of public protests like this one; not only has its supporters tried to shift the health care debate with its often extreme views, but the Tea Party also has influence in today’s elections. Photo: Nicholas Kamm/AFP/Getty Images 6

Doctors Weigh In CONFLICT AND COMPROMISE 5.4: Looking at public opinion in terms of the health care debate is an easily grasped illustration of the idea that politics is everywhere. Because it is an issue that affects us all, it is understandable that so many Americans voiced their opinions about how the health care system should be reformed. Many groups united around their opinions about health care: This photo shows members of Doctors for America as they chant their support for the health care reform bill in Washington in March 2010. Photo: Madeline Marshall/UPI/Landov 7

Signing the Reform Bill CONFLICT AND COMPROMISE 5.5: This image of President Obama signing the health care bill in March 2010 is an example of hard-fought political compromise, which was based on the idea that while Americans might disagree about government policy, profound polarization is relatively rare and most Americans’ opinions fall in the middle of the political spectrum. This image is also a reminder of how much the political process matters and how public opinion, which played such a significant role in the health care debate, affects the political process. Photo: AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite 8

What is Public Opinion? Citizens’ opinions about politics and government actions Why does public opinion matter? Explains the behavior of citizens and public officials Motivates both citizens and public officials Helps explain policy outcomes This is a good time to ask what students themselves think of public opinion: Is it well-informed? Useful? Overvalued? Too often ignored? Do you think your fellow citizens have strongly held political beliefs, weak political beliefs, or few political beliefs at all? Regarding your personal beliefs, how do you think you compare to your fellow citizens? How do you compare to your parents or friends? Of course, this chapter is about what political scientists have learned by studying public opinion. Specifically: Most evidence suggests that public opinion helps explain why certain policies have the outcomes that they do. On the other hand, older scholarship interprets the evidence to conclude that “Americans have no firm beliefs about government and thus can be easily swayed by candidates, media, and advocacy groups.”

Early Theories of Public Opinion Original studies showed individual opinions as inconsistent, non-ideological, and uninformed. Some modern studies still confirm many of these initial findings. Are Americans poorly informed about politics? One survey found that more Americans could identify characters on The Simpsons than could list which liberties the Bill of Rights guarantees. See the classic book The American Voter, published in 1960(!) by Campbell, et. al. See What Americans Know About Politics and Why It Matters by Delli Carpini and Keeter

The New Theory of Public Opinion 3 Criticisms of Early Studies It isn’t surprising that many people don’t think much about politics. Opinions have been more consistent since the original studies in the 1950s. Most importantly, the original studies were looking for the wrong thing. After all, few people work in politics and the demands of jobs, school, family, etc. also take time. Also, open-ended or ambiguous questions can confuse respondents and make it seem as if they don’t have opinions. Later studies have shown that the early studies of the 1950s only described the electorate of the 1950s. Specifically, analysis of surveys taken in the 1960s and later found that many opinions remained stable over time. Later studies also found higher levels of factual knowledge in the American electorate. Older studies looked for political beliefs were internally consistent, stable, and based on a rationale that allowed individuals to explain why they held the beliefs they did. The new work began with the premise that none of these conditions were necessary, and that earlier scholars failed to find evidence of public opinion because they were looking for the wrong thing, rather than because it didn’t exist.

What Is Public Opinion? Some opinions are formed early and remain stable throughout a lifetime Others are more fluid and vary with events (latent opinions) The New Theory of Public Opinion calls for a broader definition of public opinion than earlier studies did. Basically, the public has a much broader set of opinions than those that were originally assessed, which focused only on politics and ideology; and the content of those beliefs can be much more fluid— constantly assimilating and reacting to new information. In general, there are two types of opinions: Broad expressions of preferences across a wide range of topics. Formed early in life, these are fairly stable and include: - Party identification - General ideology (e.g., liberal vs. conservative) - Beliefs about religion Opinions created “on-the-spot” when needed are latent opinions. Latent, on-the-spot opinions are formed by considerations, the relevant information that comes to mind when an opinion is requested. A question about who should provide health insurance—government or private insurers—might call to mind a fight with an insurance company over a medical claim, recent dealings with government bureaucrats, or how a good insurance plan helped a family member survive cancer. These considerations might not lead to the most thoughtful answer, but they might be all that people use to form their opinion. This description of how most people think about politics explains many of the anomalies in early studies of public opinion. People have trouble expressing their opinions because they are often devising these opinions on the spot. Although people cannot often provide a rationale for their beliefs, this doesn’t mean the beliefs are baseless; rather, such information might not be remembered. And it makes sense that opinions change over time, as people vary the considerations they use. Thinking about opinions in terms of considerations implies that public opinion cannot simply be measured once and for all. Even if nothing major happens—no big events, new proposals, etc.—opinions may change as people call up different considerations to form their opinions. Of course, the facts that are on the news don’t simply “interpret themselves.” They have to be framed by the people who write the news. This is why media bias—whether real or imagined—is always a contentious matter. We’ll talk more about this in Chapter 6.

What Is Public Opinion? Although events such as wars, economic upheavals, and major policy changes certainly influence public opinion, research shows that most Americans acquire some political opinions early in life from parents, friends, teachers, and others in their community.

Surveying Political Principles SOURCE: Pew Research Center, “Beyond Red vs. Blue,” available at http://typology.people-press.org/typology. Think about this question: Do you consider yourself a liberal or a conservative? Are you always certain what those labels mean? A Pew Research Center lists a number of opinions that are broad expressions about how a person thinks about politics. Some of these beliefs are obviously political, such as party identification, ideology, and judgments about whether elected officials lose touch with citizens. Others, such as beliefs about homosexuality or religion, may seem irrelevant to politics, but they inform the way Americans think about politics. Believe it or not, popular culture has a complicated relationship with political opinion. In the 1960s, opposition to the Vietnam War, the military draft, and the Lyndon Johnson administration was associated with “Sex, Drugs, and Rock and Roll.” Did the non-political opinions inspire the political views, or vice versa? Thinking about politics today, what role does popular culture play among people you know well?

Liberal–Conservative Ideology in America SOURCE: Data from 2008 General Social Survey, available at http://sda.berkeley.edu/archive.htm. Liberal-conservative ideology describes whether a respondent views his- or herself as a liberal, moderate, conservative, or something between these categories. As the responses in Figure 5.2 show, Americans are spread out across the ideological range, with most people identifying as either liberal or conservative, but not strongly so. Liberal-conservative ideology is a good example of a stable opinion: The best way to predict an American’s ideology at age forty is to assume it will match his ideology at age twenty, and the same is true for party identification. However, even these typically stable opinions sometimes change in response to events. Let’s take party identification. It’s usually formed during early adulthood and adolescence, and often persists throughout an individual’s life. Still, even Party identification can change as the individual’s life or circumstances change, as new issues arise, or when candidates’ positions contradict a citizen’s notion of the differences between parties. Sometimes individuals complain that a spectrum running from “liberal” (on the left) to “conservative” (on the right) does not adequately represent the political space within which they identify. (Many voters claim to be “liberal” on certain issues and “conservative” on others.) The opposite complaint is also made: Many people who identify themselves as “moderates,” “independents,” or “centrists” repeatedly vote for one of the two major parties.

Approval Ratings for President Barack Obama, 2009–2010 FIGURE 5.3 APPROVAL RATINGS FOR PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA, 2009-2010 The dots show presidential approval and disapproval as measured in a particular poll; the lines track the average ratings in all the polls taken at a particular time. Scholars claim that presidential approval is shaped by major national and international events. Are these influences evident in these data on approval of President Obama? SOURCE: “National Job Approval, Barack Obama,” www.pollster.com/polls/us/jobapproval-obama.php.

Fears of Terrorist Attack TABLE 5.1 FEARS OF TERRORIST ATTACK In this chapter, we argue that opinions are often sensitive to new information or events. Is this true of worries about a future terrorist attack? SOURCE: Pew Research Center, “American Attitudes Hold Steady in Face of Foreign Crises,” August 16, 2006, available at http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?ReportID=285.

Where Do Opinions Come From? Political Socialization: A process whereby political opinions are shaped by one’s parents, family, community, and culture Events Group Identity Political Realignment Political socialization is powerful, but not necessarily permanent. Some events are specific, individual experiences. For instance, a combat veteran or a law enforcement officer who was injured in the line of duty is likely to have had his or her beliefs about war or crime altered by the experience. Certain events shape the beliefs of large numbers of people in similar ways: September 11th, 2001 is an event that seemed to change many people’s opinions about nation building, terrorism, defense spending, etc. Similarly, the government’s much-maligned response to Hurricane Katrina affected many people’s views of the Bush administration. Events can also take the form of ongoing crises: The housing market collapse and financial market meltdown that began in 2008 has had lingering effects. The BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico has commanded public attention for months. A Congressional election like the one in 1994 (where Republicans won control of both houses of Congress for the first time in 40 years) or the one In 2006 (where Democrats won control of Congress for the first time in 12 years) reflects a “political realignment.”

Where Do Opinions Come From? Group Identity Groups defined by gender, race, or even level of education. They can affect opinions via: a. Socialization (e.g., white southerners) b. The fact that we often look to those who “look like” us when forming opinions c. The characteristics of the group As Table 5.2 shows, opinions about things like the role of women in politics, the veracity of the Bible, and income redistribution show areas of consensus and disagreement by gender, age, education, race, income, and region.

Where Do Opinions Come From? Table continuation from previous slide

Politicians and Public Opinion Politicians read public opinion polls closely to gauge whether their behavior will anger or please constituents. Few politicians always follow survey results—but virtually none would agree with Calvin’s father that polls should be ignored entirely. Why not? Politicians, parties, party leaders, interest groups, and religious leaders not only reflect but can also influence our political preferences. Politicians try to shape opinion rather than pander to it by describing their proposals in language that taps into deeply-held public opinions. Such efforts are not always successful. Politicians can fail to persuade the public when they have the wrong issue, the wrong message, or bad communications strategy. President George W. Bush’s efforts to reform Social Security were unpopular with the public and were never enacted into law. QUESTION: From your readings, do you think public opinion is more useful as a “mirror” to reflect public opinion, or as a “lantern” to help lead it in the direction that a politician wants to go? Do you prefer politicians who view themselves primarily as “representatives” or as “leaders”?

Sampling Error in Mass Surveys Measuring Public Opinion How do we know facts about public opinion, e.g., “55% of the public supports abortion rights; 38% can name their congressperson”? Most knowledge of public opinion is from mass surveys (Mass surveys: In-person or phone interviews with hundreds or even thousands of voters). Surveys tap a sample of a population. Random samples are best. Sampling error describes what percentage of the sample might not accurately represent the population about which a survey is trying to learn. The more respondents there are, the lower the sampling error.

Measuring Public Opinion Problems Measuring Public Opinion Face-to-face interviewing is best, but it is difficult to generate a random sample. Random digit dialing is useful, but the inability to call cell phone numbers may be a problem. Robo-polls face criticism and doubts about sample selection.

The Impact of Question Wording: Attitudes on Abortion SOURCE: Pew Research Center, “Abortion, the Court, and the Public,” October 3, 2005, available at http://people-press.org/commentary/display.php3?AnalysisID=119. Problems Measuring Public Opinion (cont.) As shows in the table in this slide, question wording biases results, making badly-designed survey information less useful or even misleading. For example, we could ask, “President Bush failed the nation in his handling of the Iraq war. How do you approve of the job he is doing as president?” OR We could ask, “President Bush saved the nation in his handling of the Iraq war. How do you approve of the job he is doing as president?” The way that we ask the question can affect the answer. Even more problems Measuring Public Opinion Even the order of questions can be problematic. This is especially true when broaching sensitive subjects like race. If a pollster asks whether the respondent thinks whites are hard-working and then asks if the respondent thinks blacks are hard-working, some respondents will guess that the “right” answer is to give blacks the same score they gave whites, regardless of the respondent’s true opinion. This is especially true when the respondent has an opinion that others might consider objectionable (e.g., racist or sexist).

The Impact of Question Wording: Attitudes on Abortion Table continuation

Measuring Public Opinion The Accuracy of Public Opinion Some of the claims that the public are exceptionally ill-informed assume that people take surveys very seriously when, in fact, they may not. The more relevant the survey question is to one’s everyday life, the more seriously the respondent tends to treat the question. It is true that many Americans have significant gaps in factual information, like which party controls the House or the Senate, or the name of the chief justice of the Supreme Court. Americans also routinely overstate the amount of federal money spent on government programs such as foreign aid. The amount of error in opinions about foreign aid is extremely large: People believe that the government spends more than ten times the amount that it actually does. Other surveys show that many Americans overestimate the amount of money spent on other programs such as NASA or distributive benefits (“pork barrel spending”). A succinct, interesting inquiry on citizens’ grasp of political facts can be found in an 11-page article called "Just the Facts, Ma'am": Political Facts and Public Opinion”, found in The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, Vol. 560, No. 1, 143-154 (1998)

Measuring Public Opinion Survey results are most believable when: The many problems with surveys are taken seriously by the survey developer. The questions are simple to understand. The topic is familiar. Multiple surveys confirm the same result. All of this leads to the question: How useful are surveys? Answer: Very useful, as long as the results are interpreted carefully. Mass opinion surveys are a powerful tool for measuring public opinion, but their results must be interpreted carefully. Potential Pitfalls of Mass Surveys. {This is a longer list but it is by no means comprehensive!} . Surveys often ask about complex issues that respondents may not have thought about. 2. Samples may be biased, despite heroic efforts to randomize them. 3. Some people may also be reluctant to admit some opinions to an interviewer. 4. Respondents’ opinions may change from day to day. 5. The wording of the questions may distort respondents’ results. 6. The timing of the survey (including events on the day the survey was carried out) can influence responses. 7. Answers may reflect how familiar people are with the topics of the questions. 8. Finally, all surveys that use a sample of the population can only measure public opinion within a margin of error. THE BOTTOM LINE IS NOT TO DISREGARD MASS SURVEYS, BUT INTERPRET THEM WITH CAUTION!

Liberal–Conservative Ideology in America, 1970–2006 SOURCE: Data from General Social Survey, available at http://sda.berkeley.edu/archive.htm. As you can see, the plotted points in figure 5.4 show no evidence of ideological polarization. (Definition: The effect on public opinion when many citizens move away from moderate positions and toward either end of the political spectrum, identifying themselves as either liberals or conservatives.) Over the last several decades, a strong majority of Americans have continued to say that they are moderates, with less than 50 percent saying they are liberal or conservative. As one of the most important data sources in studying American Public Opinion, a few words about the General Social Survey are in order: As you can see, over the past thirty years, there have been similar levels of self-identified liberals, moderates, and conservatives. Even so, there is considerable conflict among the American people on a wide variety of controversial issues. Of course, many issues are not controversial and thus rarely get asked about in surveys. Over the years, the issues that are surveyed have changed. Until 1998, the General Social Survey (GSS) asked people whether they believed that “women should take care of home, not country.” In 1974, more than a third of respondents agreed, but by 1998, agreement had declined to only about 15%, which is why the question isn’t asked anymore. There is no reason to gather data about which the vast majority of Americans hold the same opinion. Around the same time, the GSS also stopped asking whether people believed that white people had the right to a segregated neighborhood—not out of moral considerations, but because American public opinion data showed an almost universally anti-segregation perspective, whether everyone truly thought that way or not.

Party Identification in America, 1970–2006 SOURCE: Data from General Social Survey, available at http://sda.berkeley.edu/archive.htm. As you can see, the gap between Democrats and Republicans in party identification has narrowed considerably in the past 40 years. It’s also notable that neither party can hold power without the support of self-identified independent voters.

Measuring American Public Opinion: Examples of Principles

Measuring American Public Opinion: Examples of Principles Table continuation

Measuring American Public Opinion: Beliefs about Government In general, the public is disenchanted with government, believing that public officials are wasteful, inefficient, and uninterested in what average people think. Still, Americans tend to like their own specific representatives in Washington.

Trust in Government SOURCE: Pew Research Center, “The People and Their Government. Distrust, Discontent, Anger, and Partisan Rancor,” April 18, 2010, available at http://people-press.org/reports/pdf/606.pdf. The impression of a disenchanted and disapproving public is amplified by Figure 5.6, which shows levels of trust in government declining steadily since the 1960s. All-time lows were recorded in the mid-1970s during the Watergate scandal and impeachment of then-president Nixon, and in the early 1990s, and have approached these levels during the recent financial crisis. As noted earlier, many scholars have argued that low levels of trust make it harder for elected officials to enact new policies, especially those that require large expenditures. More profoundly, some scholars argue that low levels of trust raise questions about the future of democracy in America. Consider the public reaction to the American Recovery Act (“the economic stimulus”) or The Affordable Care Act (“Healthcare Insurance Reform”). How can we say that American democracy is a good or popular form of government when so many people are unhappy with the performance of elected officials and bureaucrats?

Trust in Government Trust in government reached its lowest recorded levels during the mid-1970s. The decline partly reflected the economic downturn and conflict over the Vietnam War, but opinions were also shaped by the discovery that then-president Richard Nixon lied about his involvement in the Watergate scandal. Here, Nixon resigns from office to avoid impeachment.

Approval of Presidents, Senators, Governors, Congress, and Trust In Government SOURCE: James Stimson, Tides of Consent: How Public Opinion Shapes American Politics (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2004), Figure 5.7, p. 155. The striking feature of this figure is the degree to which these approval lines move up and down together over time. For the most part , all of the lines trend downward in the early 1980s, then upward in the late 1980s, then sharply downward in the early 1990s, and then upward for the rest of the period.

Generic Approval and Consumer Sentiment SOURCE: James Stimson, Tides of Consent: How Public Opinion Shapes American Politics (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2004), Figure 5.8, p. 156. These data suggest two things about how Americans form these types of “approval” opinions. First, there’s a small set of considerations—and possibly only one!—that is used by Americans to form these opinions. The second figure compares the average “approval” opinion line against a national survey measure of consumer sentiment that asks whether people think economic conditions are good or bad. For the most part, the two lines track each other very closely. But there are major departures in the early 1980s and early 2000s. Think about what you know about the history of those periods. What do you think could account for the separation of average approval ratings from consumer sentiment? In general, what does this historical correlation of public approval and consumer sentiment mean for political actors? In other words, knowing these facts, what advice would you give to a politician who asked for your opinion on what strategies to use to get (re-)elected and what policies to pursue if she succeeds?

Policy Mood SOURCE: James Stimson, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, available at www.unc.edu/~jstimson. Policy mood: The level of public support for expanding the government’s role in society; whether the public wants government action on a specific issue. To see if you understand the concept, ask yourself if you can distinguish the policy preferences in a nation of over 300 million people from the policy mood. [Look for the answer that a “policy mood” is just the summary of aggregate policy preferences at a given time.] As the labels in the figures indicate, sharp changes in the policy mood often precede changes in the composition of Congress or the party that holds the presidency. Could you have used the recent policy mood data to predict the outcomes of the 2008 presidential and congressional elections?

Perceptions of The Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan SOURCE: Pew Research Center, “Gloomy Americans Bash Congress, Are Divided on Obama,” March 18, 2010, available at http://people-press.org/reports/pdf/598.pdf. Assessments of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have varied considerably over time. What factors do you think shaped these assessments and caused them to change? Thinking back to your own opinions on these conflicts, how has your thinking about these two wars shifted (if it has) in past years?

Characteristics of American Public Opinion Economic Conditions Americans are almost always worried about the economy. But what is “the economy”? Gas prices Unemployment Grocery prices Stock market Home prices (the home is the most valuable asset most people possess)

Americans’ Diagnoses of The Most Important Economic Problems Remember, politicians’ approval ratings—and reelection chances—track the Americans’ opinions of the economy (“consumer sentiment”) very closely.

Americans’ Diagnoses of The Most Important Economic Problems Table continuation

Public Opinion on Health Care Reform, 2009–2010

The Partisan Split Over Global Warming On the issue of global warming, most people agree that it is occurring, but the public is split as to the cause. Global warming would seem to be an issue that all sides should agree on. For instance, if global warming decimates farms or floods cities, it will harm both liberals and conservatives. Similarly, if fighting global warming is a waste of money, then it diverts the resources of both liberal and conservative citizens. Why, then, do liberals and conservatives draw different conclusions from the same set of facts?

Generational and Partisan Differences on Gay Rights While politicians’ approval ratings can largely be tied to people’s opinion of economic performance, it seems unlikely that the same can be true for evolving opinions on issues, especially social issues that, by definition, lack an overriding economic component. Take a look at the table above and ask yourself: What can account for evolving opinions on “hot-button” social issues such as abortion, gay rights, prayer in school, gun control, and medical marijuana?

Does Public Opinion Matter? If not, then politicians, journalists, and political scientists spend a lot of time worrying about it for nothing. Some argue that the political process often ignores broad swaths of people, and this means that public opinion does not matter. Arguments Against the Importance of Public Opinion While some people are not counted at all, others have accumulated great wealth and influence and therefore, some would argue, disproportionate power. Of course, it could be that divided public opinion results in a compromise that fully satisfies no one. Our constitutional design also makes change (responsiveness to public opinion) difficult. Recalling the early part of the lecture, note that Americans have a difficult time reciting even basic facts about American politics and government (How many Congressman are there? Identify justices on the Supreme Court, etc.). Thus, we must ask, “How much should public opinion matter?” The answer to that question has a lot to do with what one thinks fairness and justice require, but also in deciding what prudence and practicality would suggest. If fairness and justice point in one direction and pragmatism in another, how can politicians, policymakers, or citizens decide between the two? To help us understand the lessons of the study of public opinion, let’s concentrate on more concrete questions [next slide].

Public Opinion Poll Do you agree or disagree that the policies of the U.S. government represent the preferences and opinions of the American people? Strongly agree Agree Disagree Strongly disagree

Public Opinion Poll Americans vary enormously in their knowledge about government and politics, yet we treat all opinions as having equal weight. Should everyone’s political opinions be treated equally? Yes No

Public Opinion Poll Do you believe the majority of your political opinions are based on a full understanding of the issues? Yes No

Public Opinion Poll Which of the following political values do you believe is most important? Equality of opportunity Liberty Democracy

Public Opinion Poll Which of the following do you feel has had the greatest influence on your political values? Family Social groups (racial, religious, national) Education Political conditions/experiences

Public Opinion Poll Some commentators have pointed out that much of America is “purple,” rather than “red” or “blue.” To what extent do you agree or disagree that the red state/blue state stereotypes apply to your state? Strongly agree Agree Disagree Strongly Disagree

Chapter 5: Public Opinion Practice quizzes Flashcards Outlines wwnorton.com/studyspace

Following this slide, you will find additional slides with photos, figures, and captions from the textbook.

Tracking Events and Public Opinion, 2004–2010 FIGURE 5.1 TRACKING EVENTS AND PUBLIC OPINION 2004-2010 SOURCE: Pew Research Center, “Midterm Election Challenges for Both Parties,” February 12, 2010, available at http://people-press.org/reports/pdf/589.pdf.

Early Theories of Public Opinion Are Americans poorly informed about politics? One survey found that more Americans could identify characters on The Simpsons than could list which liberties the Bill of Rights guarantees, and another found most respondents unable to name any Supreme Court justices.

The New Theory of Public Opinion Images of intense confrontation between pro-life and pro-choice protesters may conceal the more nuanced, conflicting considerations that underlie many Americans’ opinions about abortion. Most Americans believe that the decision to have an abortion should be left up to the woman but are uncomfortable allowing unrestricted access to the procedure.

Where Do Opinions Come From? Although few Americans are economic policy experts, most people’s judgments about economic conditions, based on everyday events and their personal economic circumstances, are remarkably accurate.

Measuring Public Opinion There are many ways for Americans to become well-informed about policy proposals, but there is no guarantee they will choose to systematically gather information. Most prefer instead to make snap judgments based on very little information. The resulting opinions reflect strong emotions rather than dispassionate appraisal, as shown in this protest against President Obama’s health care proposals.