For North Seattle Community College By Kyra Kester, Ph.D., Washington State University June 6, 2013

REGION DEFINITIONS AND COMPARISONS 2

 SEATTLE METROPOLITAN STATISTICAL AREA (MSA): Seattle/Tacoma/Bellevue/Everett  SEATTLE COMBINED STATISTICAL AREA (CSA): Adds Olympia, Bremerton, Mt. Vernon areas to MSA  PROSPERITY PARTNERSHIP/PUGET SOUND REGIONAL COUNCIL (PSRC) uses “CENTRAL PUGET SOUND”: Snohomish, King, Pierce And Kitsap Counties 3

4 SEATTLE MSA/SEATTLE CSA MSA population 3.5M> 50% state CSA population 4.2M ~ 2/3 state

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6 INDUSTRY WashingtonKing County KC Share of State Government 620, ,00115% Health Care & Social Assistance 391, ,37536% Retail Trade 391, ,34435% Manufacturing 304,320109,80936% Professional/Scientific/Technical Services 296, ,61657% Accommodation/Food Services 250,796 99,94040% Other Services (not Government) 237,080 87,51037% Construction 199,048 71,31336% Administrative/Support Services 195,217 83,00243% Real Estate/Rental/Leasing 186,228 78,77342% Financial/Insurance Services 169,410 74,08444% Agriculture/Natural Resources 146,095 5,5344% Wholesale Trade 136,795 64,71147% Information 115,392 85,36574% Transportation /Warehousing 115,070 53,80547% MAJOR STATE/KING COUNTY INDUSTRY 2013 SOURCES: BLS, ESD, EMSI,

 STATE LEVEL DATA: For perspective  COUNTY LEVEL DATA: For consideration of accessible employment options for students and for partnerships  NSCC CATCHMENT AREA DATA:  DEFINED BY ZIP CODES : 98103, 98105, 98107, 98115, 98117, 98125, 98133, ◦ For more immediate access for student/graduate employment, WBL options, partnerships 7

8 NSCC CONTAINS 19% OF SEATTLE JOBS 9% OF KING COUNTY JOBS ESD/EMSI

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RECESSION and RECOVERY 10

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12 ECONOMIC CONDITIONS: Source: ESD, King County Growth Report 2012 ) Percent Unemployed: Comparing The Two Great Recessions (1980 – 2011)

13 Source: ESD, King County Growth Report 2012 ECONOMIC CONDITIONS: NUMBER OF UNEMPLOYED ( ): REFLECTS GENERAL POPULATION GROWTH SINCE THE 1980s RECESSION

14 Resident Civilian Labor Force and Employment King County, LABOR FORCE Total Employment Total Unemployment Percent Unemployed ,100866,30048,8005.3% ,600944,70039,9004.1% 20051,012,900965,30047,6004.7% 20061,050,0001,006,00044,0004.2% 20071,069,0001,030,00039,0003.6% 20081,091,7001,043,30048,4004.4% 20091,116,0001,020,10095,9008.6% 20101,107,1001,006,000101,1009.1% 20111,105,6001,016,00089,6008.1% Chart Source: King County Growth Report 2012 from Employment Security Department data. Reports King County residents only.

15 ECONOMIC CONDITIONS: UNEMPLOYMENT RATES, MULTIPLE MSAs ECONOMIC CONDITIONS: UNEMPLOYMENT RATES, MULTIPLE MSAs NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, APRIL 2013

16 BLS, MAY 2013

17 ECONOMIC CONDITIONS UNEMPLOYMENT RATES KING COUNTY SOURCE: EMPLOYMENT SECURITY MAY 2013

 In 2011, export of Washington-originated products rose 21% to a new high of $64.6 billion  Approximately 8.7% of Washington State’s private sector jobs are linked to export manufacturing 18

19 The largest manufacturing sector is Aerospace, which employs 98,000 people statewide (2013),  94,000 in the MSA (45,000 in Seattle)  7,500 engineers in the MSA (15.6% growth since 2010) Average Median Hourly Wage $47.77  4,100 machinists in the MSA (26% growth since 2010) Average Median Hourly Wage $24.04 NOTE: Aerospace growth since 2008: 41% Snohomish 15% Pierce 0% King County NOTE: Aerospace growth since 2008: 41% Snohomish 15% Pierce 0% King County

 The Boeing Company  The Boeing Company alone provided 16.4% of the state economy in 2011 ($27.1 billion)  The aerospace industry includes a cluster of 650 smaller companies  In 2011, The Boeing Company’s global exports rebounded, up 16.4% from 2010, almost to the all-time high of

21 SOURCE: A. CASSEY, RECESSION: EXPORT TRENDS WASHINGTON 2010

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Manufacturing Sectors (MSA) Employment 2012 Growth to 2017 Growth to 2022 Transportation Equipment 48, %7.0% Computer/ Electronic8,7336.3%25.6% Fabricated Metal6, %33.2% Machinery5, %22% Beverage+Food2,2486.9%18.5% Electrical Equipment1, %45.7% 24 Seattle Jobs Initiative, Understanding King County’s Manufacturing Sector, 2012

Manufacturing SectorsPercentage of Mid-Level Wage Jobs Transportation Equipment52.4% Computer/ Electronic14.8% Fabricated Metal5.1% Machinery5.0% Beverage+6.9% Electrical Equipment12.9% 25 Seattle Jobs Initiative, Understanding King County’s Manufacturing Sector, 2012

THERE’S A DIFFERENCE? 26

 ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: ◦ Key sectors are critical groups of industries with similar needs and concerns  WORKFORCE PLANNING, add: ◦ Current large employers (greatest job demand) ◦ Economic conditions (hiring? replacing? growing?)  considers employment for a broader range of clients, not just those economic development is targeting 27

28 KEY/TARGETED SECTORS International Trade Innovation Economy Aerospace/High Tech Manufacturing Information/Communication Technology Life Sciences: Health Care, Research, Global Initiatives, Biotechnology Clean Tech/Energy/Utilities

 Number of full and part-time employees TARGETED SECTOR2011 EMPLOYMENT Aerospace 87,301 Clean Technology 26,115 Information Tech144,196 Life Sciences 28,574 Logistics/Int’l Trade 49,688 Military 91,301 Tourism/Visitors136,420 Business Services181, Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 2012

30  Generating approximately $25 billion in revenue annually, ICT companies are active in nearly every economic sector, from personal telecommunications to health, manufacturing, and businesses of all types. Statewide Washington hosts more than 3,000 software companies

 Software publishing provides 78,393 jobs statewide (70,119 in King County) with average annual income of $175,227  Computer systems contains 24,634 statewide (18,162 in King County) with average annual income of $96, Seattle area video game companies generate more than one third of the $10B annual revenue attributed to the game industry nationwide

Including Health Care, the sector has 390,000 jobs in Washington, 2nd largest employment sector in the state  218,000 Seattle MSA 142,000 King County 23,000 NSCC 32  More than two-thirds of the state’s bioscience companies are located in King County  Including almost 300 biotech/pharmaceutical and medical devices/technology firms  King County is also home to 24 of the state’s 36 nonprofit, research or academic organizations serving this sector

 Largest employer in the city is the University of Washington ◦ 17,000 faculty/staff  85% of faculty/staff live in King County ◦ 42,454 students (12/2012) in Puget Sound ◦ Annual revenue = $4.7B (2012) ◦ Annual grant funding $1.4B (2012) ◦ Annual patient services funding $1.8B (2012) The University of Washington receives more federal funding for research than any other public university in the United States, and has held the top spot for the last 38 years. IT IS PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE TO CUTS IN HEALTH RESEARCH 33

34 Employer The Boeing Co.76,452 Microsoft40,311 University of Washington27,920 Providence Health and Services19,091 King County Government13,382 United States Postal Service12,367 City of Seattle10,627 Costco Wholesale Corp8,224 Group Health Cooperative8,125 Nordstrom Inc.7,343 Swedish7,069 Alaska Air Group6,253 United Parcel Service5,554 Quality Food Centers (QFC)5,479 Virginia Mason Medical Center5,177 Seattle Public Schools5,048 Source: Puget Sound Business Journal Book of Lists 2011

35 SOURCE: EMSI NOTE: Projections for several industries increased in latest ESD reports

36 INDUSTRYKING COUNTY RANKSEATTLE RANK GOVERNMENT11 HEALTH CARE/SOCIAL ASSISTANCE23 RETAIL TRADE34 MANUFACTURING411 PROFESSIONAL/SCIENTIFIC/ TECHNICAL52 ACCOMMODATION/FOOD SERVICES65 OTHER SERVICES (NOT PUBLIC)76 INFORMATION813 ADMINISTRATIVE+ SERVICES99 CONSTRUCTION1012 WHOLESALE TRADE1115 TRANSPORTATION/ WAREHOUSING1210 REAL ESTATE/RENTALS8 FINANCE/INSURANCE7

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38 Workers are classified into occupational categories based upon work performed, skills, education, training, and credentials, not directly related to a single industry. Two examples of occupations are accountants and auditors and janitors and cleaners. Some occupations are found in just one or two industries, but many occupations are found in a large number of industries. EXAMPLE: HEALTH CARE EMPLOYMENT BY OCCUPATION SEATTLE 2013 HEALTH PRACTITIONERS/TECHNICIANS 36,386 includes Physicians, EMTs HEALTHCARE SUPPORT 17,152 includes Pharmacy Aides, Medical Transcriptionists LIFE/PHYSICAL/SOCIAL SCIENCE SERVICES 13,647 includes Biochemists, Nuclear Technicians

39 OCCUPATION SEATTLE EMPLOYMENT Office/Admin Support 105,467 Sales/Related 96,242 Business/Financial Operations 57,746 Food Preparation/Service 57,091 Management 50,319 Transportation/Materials Moving 45,083 Arts, Design, Entertain, Sports, Media 40,003 Personal Care 35,399 Education, Training, Libraries 35,141 Computer/Math 33,695 Building/Grounds Cleaning 25,513 Production 23,763 Install/Maintain/Repair 22,501 Construction 22,371 Architecture/Engineering 15,345 Protective 13,790 Legal 12,246 Community/Social 12,108

40 OCCUPATION SEATTLE GROWTH RATE KING GROWTH RATE Office/Admin Support5% Sales/Related6% BUSINESS/FINANCIAL OPERATIONS9% FOOD PREP/SERVICE9% Management6% Transport/Materials Moving6%7% Arts, Design, Entertain7% Health Practitioners/Technicians5% PERSONAL CARE8% Education, Training, Libraries6%5% Computer/Math9%7% Production8% Construction4%5% Healthcare Support6%7% Architect/Engineering4%5% Life/Physical/Social Science5%

 STAFFING PATTERNS: Occupations commonly employed together  EXAMPLE INDUSTRY: INFORMATION  KING COUNTY STAFFING PATTERN INCLUDES:  Software Developers, Applications  Software Developers, System  Computer Support Specialists +  Computer/Information Systems Managers (Industry=Management of Companies)  Market Research Analysts (Industry=Professional, Scientific, Technical)  Graphic Artists (Industry=Arts, Entertainment and Recreation) 41

BENEFITS? ENTREPRENEUR? 42

Professional, Scientific, Technical Employees 43 TOTAL JOBS CHANGE SINCE 2010 MEDIAN ANNUAL EARNINGS COVERED103,917UP 13%$104,099 UNCOVERED5,222UP 4%$77,882 SELF EMPLOYED17,616UP 9%$39,326 TOTAL JOBS CHANGE SINCE 2010 MEDIAN ANNUAL EARNINGS COVERED79,984UP 1%$181,599 UNCOVERED0 SELF EMPLOYED1,405DOWN 14%$27,619 Information Occupations ARE UNCOVERED AND SELF EMPLOYMENT RISING IN KING COUNTY? DOES IT MATTER?

TOTAL JOBS MEDIAN HOURLY WAGE LAWYERS COVERED6,512UP 2% $ SELF EMPLOYED2,104UP 10% $ LANDSCAPE/GROUNDS COVERED6,453UP 3% $ SELF EMPLOYED2,496UP 3% $ 7.82 CHILDCARE WORKERS COVERED10,893UP 4% $ SELF EMPLOYED3,871UP 8% $ 7.11 COMPUTER PROGRAMMERS COVERED8,842UP 6% $ SELF EMPLOYED486UP 8% $ COMPUTER SUPPORT COVERED10,248UP 8% $ SELF EMPLOYED200UP 4% $ 26.35

45 King County’s remaining unemployed are chiefly from 4 industries. These potentially available workers affect 3 others, too. SOURCE: BLS, EMSI

 Over the 2010 to 2020 period, occupational projections from the state Employment Security Department have consistently shown that the top three sectors for job openings will be  OFFICE AND ADMINISTRATIVE SUPPORT OCCUPATIONS;  SALES-RELATED OCCUPATIONS; and  FOOD PREPARATION AND SERVING-RELATED OCCUPATIONS for both the state and the nation 46

 That would seem to be good news for entry- level workers, but potentially problematic for increasing high wage employment?  What are Job Openings? ◦ Job vacancies: what causes them has meaning for workforce training.  How do they differ from Job Growth? ◦ What about Retirements? Replacements? 47

 Only 4 of the top 20 occupations in Washington project that the number of openings due to growth will be larger than that due to replacement.  Of those 4, the largest absolute and relative differences are for computer application software developers, where the number of openings due to growth is 2.8 times larger than number of openings due to replacement. 48 CHANGING CONDITIONS

49 For the other 16 occupations in the top 20, the number of openings due to replacement is greater (in many cases significantly greater) than the number of openings due to growth. For total state employment projections, about 64% of openings are due to replacement and 36% due to growth. CHANGING CONDITIONS

CRITICAL ROLE OF EDUCATION 50

 By 2020, 22.5% of jobs are expected to require a bachelor’s degree or higher.  The fastest employment growth is projected for occupations requiring a bachelor’s degree (1.67 percent average annual growth rate). 51

52 DIFFERENCES IN LIFETIME EARNINGS BY EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT

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Source: Carnevale, et al., “Help Wanted”,

55 MAJOR SHIFTS IN NATION’S ECONOMY BEGAN IN 1970s SHIFTS IN THE MIDDLE KEEP INCREASING, PARTICULARLY RISING DEMAND FOR ASSOCIATE’S AND BACHELOR’S DEGREES, AND CONTINUED LOW DEMAND FOR HIGH SCHOOL ONLY Carnevale, 2008

56 SOURCE: EMSI, ESD

57 SOURCE: EMSI, ESD

EDUCATION LEVEL ESTIMATED EMPLOYMENT IN 2010 AVG. ANNUAL GROWTH RATE AVG. ANNUAL OPENINGS AVG. ANNUAL WAGES (ESTIMATED 2012) Bachelors Degree Or Higher 698, %28,574$81,837 Associate Degree Or Post-secondary Certification 306, %11,450$62,582 Some College, No Degree, OR High School/GED 1,311, %481,946$45,559 Less Than High School 880, %38,547$28,694 SOURCE: Employment Security Department, Labor Market and Economic Analysis,

IN WASHINGTON, GAINS IN EARNINGS FROM ONE EDUCATIONAL LEVEL TO THE NEXT ARE FAIRLY EVENLY SPREAD 59 CHANGE IN EDUCATION LEVELGAIN IN EARNINGS LESS THAN HIGH SCHOOL TO SOME COLLEGE $16,865 SOME COLLEGE TO ASSOCIATE DEGREE $17,294 ASSOCIATE DEGREE TO BACHELOR’S DEGREE $18,984

ANALYZING INDUSTRY PROSPECTS: GOING BEYOND RECENT GROWTH 60

 Leading: Average annual employment growth rate surpassed average for the county  Slipping: Long-term growth above average, but near- term below average  Gaining: Long-term below average, but recent above average  Lagging: Below average in both the near and long term 61 NOTE: the period was used to indicate rank/rate of growth/total employment

KING COUNTY EMPLOYMENT GROWTH RATE FOR 2011 AVERAGED 1.81% OVER THE PERIOD , IT AVERAGED.46%  43.8% were leading  23.3% were gaining  20.8% were slipping  11.0% were lagging Source: WA-REAP 62

Thus, for the following slides: ◦ the categories of leading, slipping, gaining and lagging are based on long-term performance from 2002 and short-term ◦ Leading = growing both long-term and short-term ◦ Slipping = growing long-term, but not short-term ◦ Gaining = little or no long-term growth, but greater short term growth ◦ Lagging = little or no long or short term growth 63

INDUSTRYGrowth RANK Growth RATE (%) EMPLOYMENT Management of Companies, includes Securities 2* ,366 Educational Services ,631 Administrative and Waste Services ,191 Accommodation and Food Services ,666 Professional and Technical Services ,799 Other Services, not Public Admin ,426 Healthcare and Social Assistance ,905 Arts, Entertainment and Recreation ,088 Source: WA-REAP 64 Leading industries not included because of low overall employment: Example Mining: growth rate 9.71% (#1) but total employment 1,571

INDUSTRYGrowth RANK Growth RATE % EMPLOYMENT Information and Communication Technology ,727 Real Estate and Rental/Leasing ,959 State Government ,125 Local Government ,099 Source: WA-REAP 65

INDUSTRYGrowth RANK Growth RATE % Employment Finance and Insurance ,454 Manufacturing ,672 Transportation and Warehousing ,936 Retail Trade ,482 Source: WA-REAP 66

INDUSTRYGrowth RANK Growth RATE % EMPLOYMENT Wholesale Trade ,842 Construction ,610 Forestry, Fishing and Related ,109 Farm Employment ,385 Federal Civilian ,221 Federal Military ,188 Source: WA-REAP 67

68 OCCUPATION # EMPLOYED IN 2013 CHANGE FROM 2010 WAGE $ Software Developers128515%47.58 Accountants/Auditors110118%31.50 Marketing/Sales Mgrs99130%56.98 Bookkeeping/Acct’g Clerk97421%19.71 Misc Bus Ops Specialists95922%34.18 Financial Managers83421%49.39 Secretaries/Admin Ass’ts82622%21.66 Customer Service Reps77525%17.95 General/Operations Mgrs68126%58.65 Computer Info Analysts65520%41.82 Buyers/Purchasing Agents63920%30.99

ZIP CODES 98103, 98105, 98107, 98115, 98117, 98125, 98133,

COMPARATIVE JOB GROWTH 70

SOURCE: EMSI, 2013 COVERED EMPLOYMENT 71

NSCC TOP FIVE INDUSTRIES BY EMPLOYMENT WITH MEDIAN ANNUAL WAGES 72

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NSCC LARGEST INDUSTRY (HEALTH CARE) BY OCCUPATION 74

2013 TOTAL Added Median Hourly Retail Salesperson 5, $ Cashiers 3, $ Counter/Rental Clerks 7271 $ st line Supervisor Sales Workers1,460101$ st Line Supervisors Food Preparers/Servers 69371$ st Line Supervisors Housekeeping/Janitorial $ Food Service Managers2449$ Cooks, Institutional19622$ Chefs/Head Cooks1387$ EXAMPLES FROM RETAIL TRADE AND ACCOMMODATION/FOOD SERVICES 75

76 PROGRAMAWARDCOMPLETIONS Computer Graphics Award of less than 1 academic year 48 Computer Systems Networking and Telecommunications Associates degree13 Network and System Administration/Administrator Award of less than 1 academic year 9 Web Page, Digital/Multimedia and Information Resources Design Associates degree7 Computer GraphicsAssociates degree7 Computer Systems Networking and Telecommunications Award of less than 1 academic year 2 Computer Systems Networking and Telecommunications Award of at least 1 but less than 2 academic years 1 Total87 SOURCE : IPEDS

REGISTERED NURSES 77

COMPARATIVE GROWTH IN RN DEMAND

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GIS by EMSI 80

A NSCC Catchment B King County C State D Pierce- Snohomish-King 81

A NSCC Catchment B King County C State D Pierce- Snohomish-King RNs FORECAST: CONTINUED GROWTH FORECAST OF COVERED EMPLOYMENT by EMSI 82

83 REGISTERED NURSES  Employed in King County (2013): 20,207  Employed in State (2013):56,167  Growth rate King County : 5.1%  Growth rate State :3.8%  Expected openings King County 2013:875  EDUCATIONAL PROFILE:  Bachelor’s Degree: 43%  Associate’s Degree:37%  WHERE EMPLOYED (KING COUNTY):  General Medical/Surgical Hospitals:42%  Public Hospitals:16%  Physicians Offices: 8%  Temporary Employment Services: 4%