1 1 Trade between Ukraine & Norway Mirror and reconciliation exercises for external trade statistics between Norway and Ukraine Joint EFTA/UNECE/SSCU Seminar: Economic Globalisation: A Challenge For Official Statistics (Kiev, Ukraine, 3-6 July 2007)

2 Background Joint study between SSCU and Statistics Norway An EFTA funded co–operation on external trade statistics Working meetings –Kiev (25 – 26 January, 2007) –Oslo (19 – 20 April, 2007) Other participants: –State Customs Authority of the Ukraine –Norwegian Customs and Excise

3 Mirror Statistics Comparing two equivalent trade flows between two trade partners Asymmetries in the datasets due to differences within –Metadata –Management of data –Trade quality Importance for consistent data –For the user –For the quality

4 Asymmetries in International Trade Main explanatory reasons for discrepancies: –Valuation of exports versus imports (Fob / Cif) –Conversion to uniform currency –Methods:  Compilation of data  Threshold levels  Classification –Time lag –Trade via third countries –Trade system (General vs Special) –Misreporting –Unintentional errors

5 Cooperation process Working meeting Kiev –Comparison of key methodological principles –Mirror comparisons on a HS 6 digit level –Special regards to the trade in fish Working meeting Oslo –Reviewing data for 2006 –Development within trade in fish –Exchanging data on country of consignments

6 Total trade from Ukraine to Norway

7 Flat- rolled products of iron or non-alloy steel (HS 7208)

8 Trade via third countries Iron and steel (HS 72) –Country of consignment: –85 % from Belarus Articles of apparel and clothing accessories (HS 62 and HS 62) Snow skiis (HS )

9 Norway UkraineAustria NO M: USD 10.8 Mill AU X: USD 14.4 Mill NO M: USD 5.3 Mill UA X: 0 AU M: USD 41.4 Mill UA X: USD 40.3 Mill Trade via third countries: Snow skis from Ukraine to Norway

10 Total trade from Norway to Ukraine

11 Confidentiality in the datasets Inorganic chemicals (HS 28) –Ukraine’s import 2006: USD 3 million –No Norwegian registered export  Suppression on detailed country level Plastics and articles thereof (HS 39) –Ukraine’s import 2006: USD 4 million –Norway’s export 2006: USD 596 thousand  Suppression on a detailed country level

12 Total trade of fish from Norway to Ukraine

13 Frozen fish (HS 0303)

14 Average price of one ton of frozen fish (HS 0303) in Norway`s export and Ukraine`s import

15 Frozen Herring (HS )

16 Concluding remarks Discrepancies: –From Ukraine to Norway  2005: USD 17 mill  2006: USD 18 mill –From Norway to Ukraine  2005: USD 64 million  2006: USD 3 million Main reasons for asymmetries: –Trade via third countries –Confidentiality –Overestimation (underestimation) of customs value of goods