Perspectives on the Analysis M&S Community Dr. Jim Stevens OSD/PA&E Director, Joint Data Support 11 March 2008 v4-2

2 Who We Are Analysis Community Army (CAA, G3, G8) OSD (PA&E, Policy, P&R, AT&L, NII, Intel…) Defense Agency (DIA, NSA, DISA, DTRA) Joint Staff (J4, J5, J7, J8) Navy (N81) Air Force (A9) Marines (MCCDC) COCOM (Analyst Shops) DoD Analysis Community (planning, programming, acquisition) Guided by DODI

3 What We Do More Theater / Campaign Mission System Engineering Analysis Domain Less Joint Focus We perform analysis to support senior level defense decisions (e.g., planning, programming, and acquisition) Recent emphasis on Irregular Warfare (IW), Stability Operations, Homeland Defense (HD)

4 Examples of Decisions We Inform What capabilities do we need to find and neutralize WMD? (Counter WMD Study) What capabilities do we need to execute our war on terror strategy? (GWOT X-Game) What is the best mix of tactical air forces? (Joint Air Dominance Study) Are our projected future forces sufficient to meet the defense strategy? (Operational Availability Studies) What is the best composition (number, mix, and characteristics) of the future tanker fleet? (Tanker Analysis of Alternatives) What capabilities does DoD need to support civil authorities when responding to a domestic disaster? (H/D Civil Support Study) Shape Leadership Decisions: Help answer the question - How should DoD invest its scarce resources?

5 Analysis Community Vision A robust and inter-connected analytical community which supports the formulation, discussion, and assessment of National Security options across DoD through the use of M&S Force Planning Construct (source: 2006 QDR) Increasing complexity of the new strategic environment

6 Intelligence Assessments [DIA] Insights from FYABs … and from Analyses based on FYABs DoD Senior Leadership PPBE Decisions Analytical Baselines Analytical Baselines Integrated Data Integrated Data Traditional Irregular Catastrophic Disruptive Steady-State Surge HLD WOT/IW Conv Camp Civil Support MCO etc. JCS-led MSFD Development Concepts of Operations Traditional Irregular Catastrophic Disruptive Steady-State Surge HLD WOT/IW Conv Camp Civil Support MCO etc. OUSD(P)-led DPS Development Scenarios Defense Strategy DPS: Defense Planning Scenario MSFD: Multi-Service Force Deployment Strategy [Collaborative] Studies Winter Study Report MCS Study Report OA Study Report etc. PA&E-approved FYABs Models, Model Data, Model Results Integrated Data Concept of Operations (CONOPS) Scenarios Vision Implemented through the Analytic Agenda

7 Governance Deputy’s Advisory Working Group (DAWG) Policy, PA&E, JS Joint Analytic Data Management Steering Committee (JADM SC) Programmers, OPSDEPs M&S Professionals are in the JADM SC

8 Analytic Agenda Product Registry Products available via the JDS SIPRNET Website- Data Studies Tools

9 M&S Tool Registry –Collection of tools, documentation, data, and model POCs: Focus on tools in use or in development (government sponsored) Includes information on user groups and recent uses with study POCs –Benefits: Promotes collaboration among model users Encourages reuse Provides senior leadership visibility of investments DoD wide –Access via: JDS Classified Website (SIPR): Wiki and Forum sites on: –Scenario Development –Insurgency and Counterinsurgency (COIN) Analysis –Irregular Warfare Analysis –Access via classified website at: forum url: wiki url: Additional Information Sites

10Outreach Military Operations Research Society (MORS) [includes DoD, Industry, and Academia] –Annual Symposium in June –4-5 workshops each year (recent examples): Analysis of Non-Traditional Security Challenges: Methods & Tools Agent-Based Models & Analytical Tools in support of Stability Ops –Publications: Newsletter (PHALANX), Journal, and professional books Joint Collaboration Analysis Conference (JCAC) –Semi-annual (spring, fall): led by Joint Staff –Focused on combatant commander analysis needs and capabilities Other organizations include: –Institute for Operations Research and Management Science (INFORMS) –Military Applications Society (MAS-INFORMS)

11 Community Identified M&S Challenge Areas Operational AreasCross-cutting Missions/ Functions Conventional Operations (e.g. MCOs)Deterrence (Phases 0-4) Irregular Warfare (e.g., COIN, Counter Terrorism)Representation of ISR Stability, Security, Transition and ReconstructionC4 and Net-centric Operations Homeland Defense/Defense Support for Cvl AthHuman Behavior, Social, Cultural (HSCB) Aspects Management IssuesInformation Operations including Cyber Warfare Education and Training (analysts, decision makers)CBRNE Activities Ensuring Credibility of M&S (e.g., VV&A)Space Operations M&S Governance and Best Practices (e.g., Policies for use of proprietary tools) Logistics Joint, Interagency, Multi-national (JIM) Analysis OutreachHot Topics Configuration Management (e.g., data, tools, standards) Portfolio Management Representation of Complex Adaptive Systems

12 Challenges (near term) Irregular Warfare Analysis Tools and Data –Expand M&S in support of analysis of IW issues (DIMEFIL/PMESII, etc)) Joint, Interagency, Multinational Analysis –DoD “cannot meet today’s complex challenges alone” (QDR 2006) but must join with coalition, interagency, and other partners. To that end, DoD analysis (using M&S tools and data) must examine interaction between DoD and partner capabilities. QDR 2010: Comprehensive review of the defense strategy. –M&S Tools and Data will help analysis of capabilities required to meet the challenges (Example: TACAIR, IW Capabilities…) –Analysis (using M&S tools and data) to inform leadership decisions updating the defense strategy and shaping/sizing the force for the next ten years.