Oracle Demantra Overview & Utilization in a Demand Driven Supply Network Curtis Ardle February 22, 2008

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Demand Driven Supply Chain Network Agenda Demand Driven Supply Chain Network What is it? Benefits Best Practices Oracle Demantra Demand Driven Adaptive Planning Key Capabilities Applications w/in Suite Conclusion

What is Demand Driven? SUPPLY PRODUCT DEMAND It essentially is a supply chain driven by your customers. It means running your company on more real time information. Fundamental shift on how to do business. Linking supply with demand with products. SUPPLY PRODUCT DEMAND

Benefits Recognized For Your Company For Your Shareholders (w/ 10% improvement on perfect orders) 15% Less Inventory 17% Stronger Order Fulfillment 35% Shorter Cash to Cash Gain $.50 EPS Gain 5% ROA Gain 2.5% Profits *AMR Research: Hofman, Debra, “Mastering Supply Chain Excellence”

Collaborate Internally & Externally Use Your Data Best Practices Collaborate Internally & Externally Use Your Data Use Intelligence, not just Algorithms Establish and Execute S&OP Focus on Process First

Collaborate Internally and Externally ONE PLAN Marketing Sales SCM Finance Customer Supplier

National Weather Service Consumer Demographics Use Your Data Syndicated Data Sales History National Weather Service Consumer Demographics RFID POS Promotion response Account for demographics Reduce latency, dampening VMI Exception handling

Algorithms can never replace intelligence. Use Intelligence Algorithms can never replace intelligence.

Sales & Operations Planning Balance supply and demand Synchronize all operational plans S&OP Management Meeting Finance & Budgeting Marketing / Sales Meeting Product mix changes Promotions Sales quotas Customer collaboration Demand Meeting Consensus forecast Causal factors Supply Meeting - Production plan Inventory plan Supplier collaboration

Systems can increase visibility Process Excellence Systems can increase visibility Good processes capitalize on this visibility

What It Means - Demand Visibility Sensing Utilize granular data Know and utilize causal factors and product attributes Shaping Optimize promotion effectiveness Response Validate business plans S&OP to synchronize company

Oracle Demantra Demand Driven Planning Forecast-Driven Planning Predictive - use formulas and history to forecast demand Uses “buffers” to absorb demand shocks Expensive use of working capital Demand-Driven Planning Demand Sensing: Uses demand signals to plan and manage supply Demand Shaping: Uses strategies and information to shape demand Demand Response: Fulfillment based on customer requirements

Advanced Planning Solution Best in Class Processes Demand Driven Network Internal & External Collaboration SC Risk Management Operational Excellence Role Based S & OP Network Design Demand Sensing / Shaping Postponement Optimization Integrated Planning Supply Planning Promise, Distribute, Replenish Worksheets, Workbenches, Workflow

Advanced Forecasting and Demand Modeling Demantra Modules Demand Management Advanced Forecasting and Demand Modeling Real Time Sales & Operations Planning Trade Promotion Optimization Predictive Trade Planning Deduction & Settlement Management

Demand Management Core Application Statistical Forecasting 9 Models 23 Causal factors Attribute Based Forecasting Analyze and group by attributes Business rules for product level modeling Manage at any Level Time Product Location New Product Introduction Assumption Planning Supports qualitative forecasting Current & past assumptions modeled Shape modeling Use comparable products Generate and align to demand Editing, Reporting, Analysis, Collaboration, Events & Exceptions

Advanced Forecasting and Demand Modeling Statistical Forecasting Additional 6 models, Unlimited causal factors Compute & Display Live read-write capability Individual causal contribution Cross-correlations New Product Introduction Base & Lift Decomposition

Worksheets & Workflows Balance Supply & Demand Real-Time S&OP Worksheets & Workflows Collaborative planning Balance Supply & Demand All demand in one place Plan across orgs with real-time data Synchronize Assimilate Sales, Finance, Marketing and Supply Chain Ability to monitor variability Measure performance and drive accountability

Predictive Trade Planning Define Promotions Compute Lift, Halo, & Cannibalization Scenario Evaluation Promotion Effectiveness Engine Base & Lift Decomposition Trade Planning Worksheets

Trade Promotion Optimization Optimum Promotions to Maximize ROI Measure / Predict Lift, Cannibalization, Pantry Loading Automates promotion analysis Run promotion scenarios and recommend best promotions to run Integrates with overall single demand plan

Deduction & Settlement Management Reconcile Deductions and Payments Supports key methods Smart matching Auto matching Ease Administrative Burden

What It Means - Demantra Demantra in A Demand Driven Network Collaborate Internally & Externally Use Your Data Use Intelligence, not just Algorithms Establish and Execute S&OP Focus on Process First

Demantra - Demand Driven Demand Visibility Sensing Shaping Responding Demantra - Demand Driven Support Multiple Demand Sources Flexible Data Models Granular Visibility Support VMI & CPFR Bayesian Markov Mixed Model Forecasting Support Causal Factors Optimize Promotions Bottom Up, Top Down, Middle Out Attributes & Characteristics Chaining and Shape Modeling Collaboration Exception Handling Workflows and Worksheets

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