Diamond Offshore Drilling Inc. Presented by Ben Hier & Brandon Lee February 26, 2008
2 Agenda Company Overview Industry Outlook Competitors Portfolio Fit & Valuation Recommendation
3 Company Overview Diamond Offshore Drilling Inc. is a leading global offshore oil & gas drilling contractor Headquartered in Houston, Texas Fleet of 46 offshore rigs Strategy: “Economically Upgrade Fleet” 51% Owned by Lowes Corp (NYSE: LTR) NYSE Listed: DO Ocean Endeavor
4 Company History (1953) First submersible offshore rig developed Ocean Drilling & Exploration Co. formed (ODECO) (1992) Diamond M Corp. purchased all of ODECO for $372M (1993) Officially renamed Diamond Offshore Drilling Inc. (1995) Lowes Corp. (LTR) sold 30% of Diamond Offshore in an IPO Diamond Offshore listed on the NYSE: (DO) (1996) Diamond acquired Arethusa (Offshore) Ltd. Transaction reduced LTR’s ownership to 54% Land division sold to DI Industries Inc. (2008) Diamond is the world’s third largest offshore drilling contractor
5 Managerial Team James S. Tisch – CEO (1998-Present) Mr. Tisch has served as CEO of Loews, a diversified holding company and Diamond’s controlling stockholder, since January Lawrence R. Dickerson - President, COO, & Director (1998-Present) Mr. Dickerson served on the United States Commission on Ocean Policy from 2001 to Gary T. Krenek - Senior Vice President & CFO (2006-Present) Mr. Krenek previously served as Vice President and CFO since March 1998.
6 Business Model Contracts obtained through competitive bidding Receive a drilling “dayrate” for leasing fleet of offshore oil rigs regardless of results Diamond pays the operating expenses Some contracts have a performance bonus
7 Investment Thesis Drillers have high barriers to entry with large capital investments Cost to build a new floater ($440M, up over 400% since 1980) Major E&P companies are facing declining reserves & must drill deep offshore for growth Tupi oil & gas discovery 5-8 billion barrels of offshore reserves Diamond has one of the largest supplies of midwater floaters, which are in short supply International exposure buffers against more cyclical GOM drilling 50% of revenues generated in ’07 came from international operations Contract Drilling backlog provides cash flow & earnings visibility $10.84B in contract drilling backlog Well managed with a shareholder friendly dividend policy Expected to payout 60-80% of net income in special dividends
8 Investment Risks Volatility of energy prices Reduced E&P expenditures Oversupply of rigs Decline in dayrates Geopolitical risks Early termination of contracts Shortage of skilled labor Weather
9 The Fleet – Focused on Deepwater TypeNominal Water Depth (Feet)*Average Dayrate** High-Specification Floaters Semisubmersibles (11) 3,500-10,000$317,000 (+25% YOY) Intermediate Semisubmersibles (19) 1,1000-4,000$218,000 (+41% YOY) Drillship (1)7,500$180,000 Jack-ups (15) $115,000 (+2% YOY) * K ** K Semisubmersible Jack-up Drillship Deepwater!
10 Backlog Rig Days Committed High-Specification Floaters99%73%51%14% Intermediate Semi’s94%83%53%19% Jack-ups48%17%2%-- Total backlog as of February 7, 2008: $10.84B
11 Agenda Company Overview Industry Outlook Competitors Portfolio Fit & Valuation Recommendation
12 Oil Demand by Country
13 Short Term Energy Outlook Over the next two years, an easing of prices is expected $80 oil will support large offshore expenditures Spot price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil: Averaged $72 per barrel in 2007 Averaged $93 per barrel in January 2008 Expected to average $87 in February 2008 Expected to average $86 per barrel in 2008 Expected to average $82 per barrel in 2009 World oil consumption is expected to grow by 1.4 million bbl/d in 2008 Non-OPEC supply in 2008 is projected to be slightly higher based on output growth from Brazil. OPEC production will depend on the pace of consumption growth, inventory trends, and oil prices. U.S. Production is projected to remained unchanged in Source: Department of Energy
14 Crude Oil Prices
15 Deep & Semi Day Rate Index Source: Deepwater markets continue to exhibit high utilization & tight supply Bullish for Diamond Offshore
16 Jack-up Day Rate Index Diamond has (7 out of their 13 active) Jack-up rigs in the GOM Management is actively bidding 3-4 of the 7 internationally GOM Jack-ups account for less than 10% of revenue GOM dayrates are stabilizing Source:
17 Worldwide Contract Status & Expected Demand Source: Company Presentation 9/4/07
18 Global Offshore Expenditures Offshore Expenditures $193B (2006) to $248B (2010E) Offshore drilling has more upside than traditional land drilling
19 Agenda Company Overview Industry Outlook Competitors Portfolio Fit & Valuation Recommendation
20 Competitors Highly competitive industry “Numerous industry participants, none of which…has a dominant market share” Transocean (NYSE: RIG) operates 139 of the 1,202 offshore rigs worldwide #1 Market Share Diamond operates 46 offshore rigs
21 DO vs. NE vs. RIG vs. ATW (1YR)
22 DO vs. NE vs. RIG vs. ATW (5YR)
23 DO vs. S&P 500 (1YR)
24 The Fleet vs. Competitors TypeDiamond Offshore (DO)Transocean (RIG)Noble (NE) Semisubmersibles Jack-ups Other143
25 Comparable Valuation DORIGNEATW Market Cap$16.59B$41.05B$13.39B$3.05B Employees5,40020,0006, Offshore Rigs Operating Margin47.65%50.67%49.77%47.78% Profit Margin36.42%49.14%40.26%34.71% EBITDA$1.44B$2.95B$1.78B$211M P/E (ttm) P/E (Forward) Current Ratio Debt/Equity (mrq) Payout Ratio94%N/A3%N/A RIG-Transocean, NE-Noble, ATW-Atwood Oceanics
26 Agenda Company Overview Industry Outlook Competitors Portfolio Fit & Valuation Recommendation
27 Correlation to RCMP Holdings Low Correlation To Holdings!
28 DCF Assumptions Beta: 1.22 DCF WACC: 11.12% Bloomberg WACC: 10.98% Terminal Growth: 5%
29 DCF Valuation Current Price: $ DCF Value: $135 Intrinsic Value: $122-$149 Estimated Special Dividend Yield: 5.6% Estimated Total Return: 18%
30 Sensitivity Analysis
31 Multiple Valuation & Conclusion DORIGNEATW EV/EBITDA PEG Ratio E P/E RIG-Transocean, NE-Noble, ATW-Atwood Oceanics Multiple valuation supports DCF analysis DO provides portfolio diversification into energy & basic materials Stock is 20% below its 52-week high (December 26, 2007) Diamond Offshore is undervalued & should be bought
32 Agenda Company Overview Industry Outlook Competitors Portfolio Fit & Valuation Recommendation
33 Recommendation Purchase 100 shares of (DO) at the market Approximate investment: $11,949 Diamond Offshore is the energy company to own!