An initiative of the ACP Group of States funded by the European Union Global Climate Change Alliance: Intra-ACP Programme Training Module Mainstreaming Climate Change Module 1 - Understanding the basics of climate change science Ms Isabelle Mamaty Senior Expert Climate Support Facility

Understanding the basics of climate change  Learning objectives: o To enhance knowledge on climate change and its potential impacts o To enhance knowledge on impacts of climate change at regional and sectoral levels  Expected outcomes: o Increased knowledge on the causes of climate change o Increased knowledge on the effect of greenhouse gases and their main sources 2

Is climate change real?  IPCC 4 th Assessment Report: o “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea level”.  Observed trends: o Recent years warmest on record o Accelerating increase in global surface temperature and ocean temperature o Accelerating rise in sea level 3

Some observations: trends in global mean temperature 4 Source: IPCC (2007b) 4 th Assessment Report, WG I – FAQ 3.1 Fig. 1

Observations and projections: global sea level change 5 Source: IPCC (2007b) 4 th Assessment Report, WG I – FAQ 5.1 Fig. 1

Observations: intensity of cyclones 6 Worldwide: %age of Category 1 cyclone (blue curve), sum of Category 2 and 3 (green curve), sum of category 4 and 5 (red curve) on 5 years period. Dashed lines are averages for each category from 1970 to 2004 (Source: Petit & Prudent 2008, p. 42, from Webster et al 2005)

What are the causes of climate change?  Natural variation is an inherent feature of the climate (e.g. driven by solar cycles, earth orbit, volcanoes)  But anthropogenic emissions of long-lived greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are a major cause of the changes now being observed 7

The greenhouse effect 8 Source: WWF/IPCC,

What are the main greenhouse gases?  By decreasing order of abundance: o water vapour (H 2 O) o carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) o methane (CH 4 ) o nitrous oxide (N 2 O) o ozone (O 3 ) o chlorofluorocarbons (CFC) o other halogenated compounds (i.e. gases containing fluorine, chlorine, bromine or iodine) (e.g. hydrofluorocarbons – HFC, sulphur hexafluoride – SF6) 9

Evolution of GHG concentrations Source: IPCC (2007b) 4 th Assessment Report, WG I – FAQ 2.1 Fig. 1 10

Globally, what are the main sources of GHG emissions? 11 Source: Herzog (2005) – World Resources Institute

What are the main consequences? 12 Biophysical impacts Changes in t° Changes in rainfall patterns Shifts in seasons More frequent or severe storms, floods, droughts Raised sea level Erosion, desertification Changes in water quality/availability Changes in ecosystems Biodiversity loss Disease & pest outbreaks,... Socioeconomic impacts Damage to or destruction of infrastructure Reduced food security, malnutrition Economic disruption, loss of livelihoods, social disruption Increased mortality and morbidity Reduced availability of hydropower Conflicts, population displacement, human migrations,...

13 Lagoon, Benin Impacts of climate change (1) Flood, Fiji Degraded mangroves, Guyana, Limpopo dry season, Mozambique

14 Impacts of climate change (2) Solomon Island Coastal erosion, Vanuatu Drought, Senegal Coastal erosion, Benin

15 Regional impacts of climate change in Africa  By 2020 o Decreased in agricultural production, crop yields o Water stress due to climate change for 75 to 250 million of people (particularly in northern and southern Africa)  By 2050 o Sea-level rise in coastal areas by 2050 o large part of the western Sahel and southern-central Africa are likely to become unsuitable to malaria transmission 15

16 Regional impacts of climate change in Asia and Central Asia  By 2020 o Risk of hunger increase from 7% to 14% (additional 49 million people) o 10% increase in agricultural irrigation demand in arid and semi arid region of east Asia due to 1°C increase in temperature  By 2050 o Risk of hunger: additional 132 million people o Decrease in fresh water availability by 2050 o Greatest risk of increased flooding from the sea and in some mega deltas, flooding from the rivers o Endemic morbidity and mortality due to diarrhoeal disease primarily associated with floods and droughts o Pressure on natural resources and the environment associated with rapid urbanisation, industrialisation and economic development : up to 50% of Asia’s total biodiversity is at risk o 24% to 30% of coral reefs may be lost in the next 10 to 30 years 16

Regional impacts of climate change in Latin America and Caribbean  By 2020 o Generalised reductions in rice yields and increases in soybean yields o Risk of hunger for additional 5 million people o Water stress: additional 7 to 77 million people o Heat stress, malaria, dengue fever, cholera and other water-borne diseases  By 2050 o Desertification and salinisation projected to affect 50% of agricultural lands o Risk of hunger for additional 26 million people o Gradual replacement of tropical forest by savannah in eastern Amazonia o Risk of significant biodiversity loss in many areas of tropical Latin America 17

Regional impacts of climate change in small Island States  By 2020 o Subsistence and commercial agriculture and fisheries adversely affected o Increase water stress o Sea-level rise o Deterioration of coastal conditions: erosion of beaches and coral bleaching  By 2050 o Reduction of water resources to the point where they become insufficient to meet demand during low-rainfall periods o In the Pacific a 10% reduction in average rainfalls is likely to correspond to 20% reduction in the size of the freshwater lens on Tarawa Atoll, Kiribati o Coral bleaching may become an annual or biannual event in the next 30 to 50 years or sooner 18

Regional impacts of climate change in Central and Eastern Europe  By 2020 o Risk of floods especially in northern areas o Summer river flows may decrease by up to 50% in central Europe and by up to 80% in some rivers in southern Europe o Annual river runoff decreases in Southern Europe by 0% to 23% (compared to baseline) o Increase of snow-melt floods  By 2050 o Decline of annual runoff in south-eastern Europe by up to between 20% and 30% o Sea level rise in Baltic coasts with an increased risk of flooding and coastal erosion o Increased risks to health due to more frequent heat waves, flooding and greater exposure to vector and food-borne diseases 19

20 Turning words into action

Discussion  Questions and Answers  Discussion and sharing of experiences on the climate change impacts in the country and the main causes and consequences 21

Presentation of case studies  Presentation of case studies of climate change impacts (studies, video, photos ….) 22

Learning process exercise: Working group  Exercise: Preparation of a quiz on climate change impacts, causes and consequences 23

Recap – Key messages  Climate change is real, and is driven to a large extent by emissions of greenhouse gases linked to human activities o Fossil energy use, deforestation and agriculture are the main culprits  Climate change is notably characterised by rising temperatures, rising sea level, and more frequent/intense extreme weather events  Changes in climate system parameters generate a wide range of biophysical and socioeconomic impacts 24

Key references  IPCC (2007b) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK & New York, NY, USA  IPCC website:  UNFCC (n.d), Climate change: impacts, vulnerabilities and adaptation in developing countries  Volunteer-driven information website ‘CO 2 Now’:  WWF – Climate change explained:

26 Thank you Contact: Dr. Pendo MARO, ACP Secretariat or