Current Events In Activity-Based Modeling Ken Cervenka, P.E., AICP North Central Texas Council Of Governments For AMPO Travel Modeling Work Group Meeting Houston, Texas March 20, 2006

Agenda Current Agency Activities Responses From Focus Groups TRB Innovations In Modeling Conference Strategies For Advancing The Model Profession

Current Agency Activities Models In Place And In Operation SFCTA (San Francisco County) NYMTC (New York MPO) MORPC (Columbus, Ohio MPO) Models Under Development By Consultants DRCOG (Denver MPO) SACOG (Sacramento MPO)

Current Agency Activities (Cont.) Models Under Development By Universities FAMOS (Tampa Area Testing) CEMDAP (Dallas-Fort Worth Area Testing) Others ARC (Atlanta MPO) MTC (San Francisco/Oakland MPO) TRANSIMS (Portland Case Study)

“MPO Coalition” Activity Model Listserv Mission Statement: “MPO Coalition for the Examination and Advancement of Activity-Based Models for Use in Transportation Planning Applications” 27 MPOs (97 Million People) Are Represented 34% Of Total U.S. Population (Census 2000) 46% Of All MPO Population

Academic/Consultant Focus Group--Question 1 Do YOU think activity-based models (ABMs) are the appropriate "wave of the future" for a significant near-term (within five years) advancement of the U.S. travel model practice? [38 Responses]

Focus Group--Question 2 Assume $2 million a year for the next five years ($10 million) of unexpected monies were made available for advancing/improving land use/travel demand modeling tools. How would YOU suggest this money be spent? [27 Responses]

Focus Group--Question 3 What do YOU consider the right path for MPOs to take, when it comes to implementation of land use/demographic forecasting tools? [17 Responses]

Focus Group--Question 4 What should be the role of the federal government (especially U.S. DOT) in advancing the travel modeling profession? [5 Responses]

Focus Group--Question 5 How should one go about testing an existing activity-based model, to determine its readiness for real-world model applications use? [4 Responses]

Focus Group--Question 6 What are the questions we should expect robust land use and transportation models to help us resolve?

TRB Innovations In Travel Demand Modeling Conference 1:30 p.m. Sunday, May 21, 2006 To 2:30 p.m. Tuesday, May 23, 2006 Austin, Texas (Hyatt Regency)

Preliminary Agenda Sunday Workshops (1:30 to 5:00 p.m.) Innovations In Practice FTA Findings For Meaningful Forecasts Data And Survey Issues

Preliminary Agenda Monday Morning Plenary Sessions Overview Of The Policy Issues Moving Innovative Models Into Practice

Preliminary Agenda Monday Afternoon Concurrent Sessions 1 Tour Based Models Data And Synthetic Populations Land Use Forecasting Monday Afternoon Concurrent Sessions 2 Activity Based Models Survey Methods Assignment Advances

Preliminary Agenda Tuesday Morning Concurrent Sessions 3 Education And Outreach Emerging Modeling Considerations Validation Tuesday Morning Concurrent Sessions 4 Transitioning To A New Model Framework Data And Future Travel Behavior

Tuesday Afternoon Closing Plenary Next Steps: Institutional Issues Round Table Discussion By Eight MPO Model Practitioners Larry Blain (Seattle); Salvador Gonzalez (El Paso); Ron Milone (Washington, D.C.); Chuck Purvis (San Francisco); Chris van Slyke (Houston); Aichong Sun (Tucson); Dick Walker (Portland); and Kemit Wies (Chicago)

Strategies For Consideration (1) We Need A Very Clear Picture Of Who Is Doing What The TRB Innovations In Modeling Conference Will Set The Stage For Good Documentation Both Successes And Failures Are Important Rigorous Assessment Of Modeling Tools Not Just Activity Models Should Be Tested Both Implemented And Estimated Models Guidelines For Dynamic Validation Tests

Strategies For Consideration (2) More Basic Research To Better Understand (And Calculate) Behavioral Responses Some Original Explorations Still Needed Some “Directed” Efforts May Also Be Needed Applied Research Leading To Implementations Individual Or “Pooled Funding” Efforts? Rigorous Review Of All New Implementations A Need For An Active, Up-to-Date “Knowledge Base”