Watch in slide show mode to observe (modest) animation. comments questions: papers, etc:

Dan M. Kahan Yale University & many others The Climate-Science Communication Measurement Problem

Beliefs on global temperature “increase in recent decades” N = 1,885. Annenberg Public Policy Center & Cultural Cognition Project. Nationally representative sample, June 2013 (YouGov). CIs are 0.95 confidence intervals for estimated general population means.

I.What ordinary members of the public “believe” about climate change doesn’t reflect what they know; it expresses who they are. II.Ordinary members of the public already know everything they need to about climate science; their knowledge isn't what what the “climate change” issue is assessing. III.Promoting constructive public engagement with climate science doesn’t depend on communicating more scientific information; it requires changing the meaning of the question. IV.What needs to be communicated to ordinary decisionmakers is normal climate science; what needs to be communicated to ordinary people is the normality of climate science. Four theses on climate science communication

I.What ordinary members of the public “believe” about climate change doesn’t reflect what they know; it expresses who they are. II.Ordinary members of the public already know everything they need to about climate science; their knowledge isn't what what the “climate change” issue is assessing. III.Promoting constructive public engagement with climate science doesn’t depend on communicating more scientific information; it requires changing the meaning of the question. IV.What needs to be communicated to ordinary decisionmakers is normal climate science; what needs to be communicated to ordinary people is the normality of climate science. Four theses on climate science communication

I.What ordinary members of the public “believe” about climate change doesn’t reflect what they know; it expresses who they are. II.Ordinary members of the public already know everything they need to about climate science; their knowledge isn't what what the “climate change” issue is assessing. III.Promoting constructive public engagement with climate science doesn’t depend on communicating more scientific information; it requires changing the meaning of the question. IV.What needs to be communicated to ordinary decisionmakers is normal climate science; what needs to be communicated to ordinary people is the normality of climate science. Four theses on climate science communication

I.What ordinary members of the public “believe” about climate change doesn’t reflect what they know; it expresses who they are. II.Ordinary members of the public already know everything they need to about climate science; their knowledge isn't what what the “climate change” issue is assessing. III.Promoting constructive public engagement with climate science doesn’t depend on communicating more scientific information; it requires changing the meaning of the question. IV.What needs to be communicated to ordinary decisionmakers is normal climate science; what needs to be communicated to ordinary people is the normality of climate science. Four theses on climate science communication

“Belief” in evolution

“Ordinary Science Intelligence” Assessment OSI_1.0OSI_2.0

“Ordinary Science Intelligence” Assessment 18 items 6 “Basic facts” (NSF Indicators, Pew) 3 “Theory of science” (NSF Indicators) 6 Numeracy (Peters et al. 2006) 3 Cognitive reflection (Frederick 2005)

“Ordinary Science Intelligence” Assessment 18 items 6 “Basic facts” (NSF Indicators, Pew) 3 “Theory of science” (NSF Indicators) 6 Numeracy (Peters et al. 2006) 3 Cognitive reflection (Frederick 2005) Dimensionality (principal factor)

“Ordinary Science Intelligence” Assessment 18 items 6 “Basic facts” (NSF Indicators, Pew) 3 “Theory of science” (NSF Indicators) 6 Numeracy (Peters et al. 2006) 3 Cognitive reflection (Frederick 2005) Reliability (1-SE 2 ) Ordinary science intelligence Dimensionality (principal factor) 2PL Item resonse theory scaling

Ordinary Science Intelligence probability of correct answer Annenberg Center for Public Policy & Cultural Cognition Project. N = 2,000. Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). Predicted probabilities derived via Monte Carlo Simulation based on logistic regression. Colored bars reflect 0.95 confidence intervals. “Which gas makes up most of the Earth's atmosphere?” [Hydrogen, Nitrogen, Carbon Dioxide, Oxygen] “Electrons are smaller than atoms.” (True/false) “Ordinary Science Intelligence”: item response functions

Ordinary Science Intelligence probability of correct answer Annenberg Center for Public Policy & Cultural Cognition Project. N = 2,000. Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). Predicted probabilities derived via Monte Carlo Simulation based on logistic regression. Colored bars reflect 0.95 confidence intervals. “Which gas makes up most of the Earth's atmosphere?” [Hydrogen, Nitrogen, Carbon Dioxide, Oxygen] “Ordinary Science Intelligence”: item response functions “What is the probability that the woman who tested positive in a routine mammography has cancer?” [conditional probability]

Ordinary Science Intelligence probability of correct answer Annenberg Center for Public Policy & Cultural Cognition Project. N = 2,000. Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). Predicted probabilities derived via Monte Carlo Simulation based on logistic regression. Colored bars reflect 0.95 confidence intervals. “Which gas makes up most of the Earth's atmosphere?” [Hydrogen, Nitrogen, Carbon Dioxide, Oxygen] “Ordinary Science Intelligence”: item response functions Group 2 Group 1 “What is the probability that the woman who tested positive in a routine mammography has cancer?” [conditional probability] Group 2 Group 1

“Human beings, as we know them today, developed from earlier species of animals.” (True/false) Ordinary Science Intelligence probability of correct answer Annenberg Center for Public Policy & Cultural Cognition Project. N = 2,000. Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). Predicted probabilities derived via Monte Carlo Simulation based on logistic regression. Colored bars reflect 0.95 confidence intervals. “Which gas makes up most of the Earth's atmosphere?” [Hydrogen, Nitrogen, Carbon Dioxide, Oxygen] “Ordinary Science Intelligence”: item response functions Group 2 Group 1

Group 2 Group 1 “Human beings, as we know them today, developed from earlier species of animals.” (True/false) Ordinary Science Intelligence probability of correct answer Annenberg Center for Public Policy & Cultural Cognition Project. N = 2,000. Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). Predicted probabilities derived via Monte Carlo Simulation based on logistic regression. Colored bars reflect 0.95 confidence intervals. “Which gas makes up most of the Earth's atmosphere?” [Hydrogen, Nitrogen, Carbon Dioxide, Oxygen] “Ordinary Science Intelligence”: item response functions Group 2 Group 1

Group 2 Group 1 “Human beings, as we know them today, developed from earlier species of animals.” (True/false) Ordinary Science Intelligence probability of correct answer Annenberg Center for Public Policy & Cultural Cognition Project. N = 2,000. Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). Predicted probabilities derived via Monte Carlo Simulation based on logistic regression. Colored bars reflect 0.95 confidence intervals. “Ordinary Science Intelligence”: item response functions Group 1 Group 2 Group 1 “What is the probability that the woman who tested positive in a routine mammography has cancer?” [conditional probability]

“Human beings, as we know them today, developed from earlier species of animals.” (True/false) Ordinary Science Intelligence probability of correct answer Annenberg Center for Public Policy & Cultural Cognition Project. N = 2,000. Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). Predicted probabilities derived via Monte Carlo Simulation based on logistic regression. Colored bars reflect 0.95 confidence intervals. “Ordinary Science Intelligence”: item response functions Above avg. religiosity Below avg. religiosity “What is the probability that the woman who tested positive in a routine mammography has cancer?” [conditional probability] Above avg. religiosity Below avg. religiosity

“Human beings, as we know them today, developed from earlier species of animals.” (True/false) Ordinary Science Intelligence probability of correct answer Annenberg Center for Public Policy & Cultural Cognition Project. N = 2,000. Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). Predicted probabilities derived via Monte Carlo Simulation based on logistic regression. Colored bars reflect 0.95 confidence intervals. “Ordinary Science Intelligence”: item response functions “According to the theory of evolution, human beings, as we know them today, developed from earlier species of animals.” (True/false) Above avg. religiosity Below avg. religiosity Above avg. religiosity Below avg. religiosity

Teaching evolution to “nonbelievers”

“Belief” in global warming

Ordinary Science Intelligence global warming risk

Left_right political orientation “How much risk do you believe global warming poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” Very liberal Strong Democrat Very Conservative Strong Republican Liberal Democrat Conservative Republican Moderate Independent N = 1,885. Nationally representative sample, June 2013 (YouGov). Subjects “color coded” based on response to risk- perception outcome variable. X-axis reflects subject score on composite scale that aggregates responses to 7-point party identification item and 5-point “liberal-conservative” ideology item (α = 0.82).

Left_right political orientation “How much risk do you believe global warming poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” r = , p < 0.01 Very liberal Strong Democrat Very Conservative Strong Republican Liberal Democrat Conservative Republican Moderate Independent N = 1,885. Nationally representative sample, June 2013 (YouGov). Subjects “color coded” based on response to risk- perception outcome variable. X-axis reflects subject score on composite scale that aggregates responses to 7-point party identification item and 5-point “liberal-conservative” ideology item (α = 0.82).

“Belief” in global warming

Ordinary Science Intelligence global warming risk

“Belief” in global warming Ordinary Science Intelligence global warming risk

“Cultural cognition” thesis

“Skin cream experiment”

Two conditions

Correct interpretation of data rash decreases rash increases Lowess smoother superimposed on raw data. correct incorrect Numeracy score

numeracy score at & above which subjects can be expected to correctly interpret data. Numeracy

“Gun ban experiment”

Four conditions

Correct interpretation of data Gun ban skin treatment

Correct interpretation of data skin treatment Gun ban

Correct interpretation of data Liberal Democrats (< 0 on Conservrepub) Conserv Republicans (> 0 on Conservrepub) skin treatment Gun ban

Correct interpretation of data Liberal Democrats (< 0 on Conservrepub) Conserv Republicans (> 0 on Conservrepub) skin treatment Gun ban

The science communication problem Not too little rationality, but too much. Global warming Fracking Private gun ownership Global warming Fracking Private gun ownership

The science communication problem Not too little rationality, but too much. Global warming Fracking Private gun ownership Global warming Fracking Private gun ownership

I.What ordinary members of the public “believe” about climate change doesn’t reflect what they know; it expresses who they are. II.Ordinary members of the public already know everything they need to about climate science; their knowledge isn't what what the “climate change” issue is assessing. III.Promoting constructive public engagement with climate science doesn’t depend on communicating more scientific information; it requires changing the meaning of the question. IV.What needs to be communicated to ordinary decisionmakers is normal climate science; what needs to be communicated to ordinary people is the normality of climate science. Four theses on climate science communication

I.What ordinary members of the public “believe” about climate change doesn’t reflect what they know; it expresses who they are. II.Ordinary members of the public already know everything they need to about climate science; their knowledge isn't what what the “climate change” issue is assessing. III.Promoting constructive public engagement with climate science doesn’t depend on communicating more scientific information; it requires changing the meaning of the question. IV.What needs to be communicated to ordinary decisionmakers is normal climate science; what needs to be communicated to ordinary people is the normality of climate science. Four theses on climate science communication

I.What ordinary members of the public “believe” about climate change doesn’t reflect what they know; it expresses who they are. II.Ordinary members of the public already know everything they need to about climate science; their knowledge isn't what what the “climate change” issue is assessing. III.Promoting constructive public engagement with climate science doesn’t depend on communicating more scientific information; it requires changing the meaning of the question. IV.What needs to be communicated to ordinary decisionmakers is normal climate science; what needs to be communicated to ordinary people is the normality of climate science. Four theses on climate science communication

I.What ordinary members of the public “believe” about climate change doesn’t reflect what they know; it expresses who they are. II.Ordinary members of the public already know everything they need to about climate science; their knowledge isn't what what the “climate change” issue is assessing. III.Promoting constructive public engagement with climate science doesn’t depend on communicating more scientific information; it requires changing the meaning of the question. IV.What needs to be communicated to ordinary decisionmakers is normal climate science; what needs to be communicated to ordinary people is the normality of climate science. Four theses on climate science communication

“Ordinary climate science intelligence” battery

“Climate scientists believe that the increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide associated with the burning of fossil fuels will reduce photosynthesis by plants.” [True or False] “What gas do most scientists believe causes temperatures in the atmosphere to rise? Is it [hydrogen, helium, carbon dioxide, radon]?” probability of correct answer Ordinary climate science intelligence Annenberg Center for Public Policy & Cultural Cognition Project. N = 1,769. Predicted probabilities derived via Monte Carlo Simulation based on logistic regression. Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). Political outlook predictor set at -1 SD & + 1 SD on “Left_right" scale for “liberal democrat” and “conservative Republican,” respectively. Colored bars reflect 0.95 confidence intervals. Ordinary climate science intelligence OCSI item response theory

“Ordinary climate science intelligence” battery

No. correct Human causedNaturally causedNo warming Positions on global warming in “past few decades” Annenberg Center for Public Policy & Cultural Cognition Project. N = Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). X-axis is continuous “Ordinary Science Intelligence” scale formed by IRT-weighted responses to NSF & Pew science literacy, Numeracy, and Cognitive Reflection Test items (α=0.83). CIs reflect 095 level of confidence for estimated population mean. “Ordinary climate science intelligence” and global warming “beliefs”

Annenberg Center for Public Policy & Cultural Cognition Project. N = 2,000. Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). X-axis is continuous “Ordinary Science Intelligence” scale formed by IRT-weighted responses to NSF & Pew science literacy, Numeracy, and Cognitive Reflection Test items (α=0.83). CIs reflect 095 level of confidence for estimated population mean. Ordinary science intelligence vs. Ordinary climate science intelligence Ordinary climate science intelligence Ordinary science intelligence r = 0.32, p < 0.01

Annenberg Center for Public Policy & Cultural Cognition Project. N = Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). X-axis is continuous “Ordinary Science Intelligence” scale formed by IRT-weighted responses to NSF & Pew science literacy, Numeracy, and Cognitive Reflection Test items (α=0.83). Left_right” is continuous political outlook scale formed by aggregating responses to 7-point party identification item and 5-point “liberal-conservative” ideology item (α=0.78). CIs reflect 095 level of confidence for estimated population mean. > avg Left_Right< avg Left_Right OCSI, political outlooks, and Ordinary Science Intelligence Ordinary climate science intelligence Ordinary science intelligence

“How much risk do you believe global warming poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?”

Annenberg Center for Public Policy & Cultural Cognition Project. N = Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). X-axis is continuous “Ordinary Science Intelligence” scale formed by IRT-weighted responses to NSF & Pew science literacy, Numeracy, and Cognitive Reflection Test items (α=0.83). Left_right” is continuous political outlook scale formed by aggregating responses to 7-point party identification item and 5-point “liberal-conservative” ideology item (α=0.78). CIs reflect 095 level of confidence for estimated population mean. > avg Left_Right< avg Left_Right OCSI, political outlooks, and Ordinary Science Intelligence Ordinary climate science intelligence Ordinary science intelligence

“Climate scientists believe that... ”—true or false? if the north pole icecap melted as a result of human-caused global warming, global sea levels would rise false globally averaged surface air temperatures were higher for the first decade of the twenty- first century ( ) than for the last decade of the twentieth century ( ) True human-caused global warming will result in flooding of many coastal regions True human-caused global warming has increased the number and severity of hurricanes around the world in recent decades False nuclear power generation contributes to global warming False human-caused global warming will increase the risk of skin cancer in human beings False there will be positive as well as negative effects from human-caused global warming True the increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide associated with the burning of fossil fuels will reduce photosynthesis by plants False carbon dioxide causes temperatures in the atmosphere to rise True Percent giving correct response > avg Left_Right< avg Left_Right Annenberg Center for Public Policy & Cultural Cognition Project. N = 1,769 Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). “Left_right” is continuous political outlook scale formed by aggregating responses to 7-point party identification item and 5-point “liberal-conservative” ideology item (α=0.78). CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence for estimated population mean. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence for estimated population mean.

“Climate scientists believe that... ”—true or false? if the north pole icecap melted as a result of human-caused global warming, global sea levels would rise false globally averaged surface air temperatures were higher for the first decade of the twenty- first century ( ) than for the last decade of the twentieth century ( ) True human-caused global warming will result in flooding of many coastal regions True human-caused global warming has increased the number and severity of hurricanes around the world in recent decades False nuclear power generation contributes to global warming False human-caused global warming will increase the risk of skin cancer in human beings False there will be positive as well as negative effects from human-caused global warming True the increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide associated with the burning of fossil fuels will reduce photosynthesis by plants False carbon dioxide causes temperatures in the atmosphere to rise True Percent giving correct response > avg Left_Right< avg Left_Right Annenberg Center for Public Policy & Cultural Cognition Project. N = 1,769 Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). “Left_right” is continuous political outlook scale formed by aggregating responses to 7-point party identification item and 5-point “liberal-conservative” ideology item (α=0.78). CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence for estimated population mean. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence for estimated population mean.

“Climate scientists believe that... ”—true or false? if the north pole icecap melted as a result of human-caused global warming, global sea levels would rise false human-caused global warming has increased the number and severity of hurricanes around the world in recent decades False nuclear power generation contributes to global warming False human-caused global warming will increase the risk of skin cancer in human beings False there will be positive as well as negative effects from human-caused global warming True the increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide associated with the burning of fossil fuels will reduce photosynthesis by plants False Percent giving correct response > avg Left_Right< avg Left_Right Annenberg Center for Public Policy & Cultural Cognition Project. N = 1,769 Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). “Left_right” is continuous political outlook scale formed by aggregating responses to 7-point party identification item and 5-point “liberal-conservative” ideology item (α=0.78). CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence for estimated population mean. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence for estimated population mean. globally averaged surface air temperatures were higher for the first decade of the twenty- first century ( ) than for the last decade of the twentieth century ( ) True human-caused global warming will result in flooding of many coastal regions True carbon dioxide causes temperatures in the atmosphere to rise True

“Climate scientists believe that... ”—true or false? if the north pole icecap melted as a result of human-caused global warming, global sea levels would rise false human-caused global warming has increased the number and severity of hurricanes around the world in recent decades False nuclear power generation contributes to global warming False human-caused global warming will increase the risk of skin cancer in human beings False there will be positive as well as negative effects from human-caused global warming True the increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide associated with the burning of fossil fuels will reduce photosynthesis by plants False Percent giving correct response > avg Left_Right< avg Left_Right Annenberg Center for Public Policy & Cultural Cognition Project. N = 1,769 Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). “Left_right” is continuous political outlook scale formed by aggregating responses to 7-point party identification item and 5-point “liberal-conservative” ideology item (α=0.78). CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence for estimated population mean. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence for estimated population mean. globally averaged surface air temperatures were higher for the first decade of the twenty- first century ( ) than for the last decade of the twentieth century ( ) True human-caused global warming will result in flooding of many coastal regions True carbon dioxide causes temperatures in the atmosphere to rise True

Liberal Democrat Conservative Republican OCSI item response theory probability of correct answer Annenberg Center for Public Policy & Cultural Cognition Project. N = 1,769. Predicted probabilities derived via Monte Carlo Simulation based on logistic regression. Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). Political outlook predictor set at -1 SD & + 1 SD on “Left_right" scale for “liberal democrat” and “conservative Republican,” respectively. Colored bars refelct 0.95 confidence intervals. probability of correct answer Conservative Republican Liberal Democrat “Climate scientists believe that the increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide associated with the burning of fossil fuels will reduce photosynthesis by plants.” [True or false] “Climate scientists believe that human-caused global warming will increase the risk of skin cancer in human beings.” [True or false] Ordinary climate science intelligence

Liberal Democrat Conservative Republican OCSI item response theory probability of correct answer Annenberg Center for Public Policy & Cultural Cognition Project. N = 1,769. Predicted probabilities derived via Monte Carlo Simulation based on logistic regression. Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). Political outlook predictor set at -1 SD & + 1 SD on “Left_right" scale for “liberal democrat” and “conservative Republican,” respectively. Colored bars refelct 0.95 confidence intervals. probability of correct answer Conservative Republican Liberal Democrat “Climate scientists believe that human-caused global warming will increase the risk of skin cancer in human beings.” [True or false] Ordinary climate science intelligence “Climate scientists believe that if the North Pole icecap melted as a result of human-caused global warming, global sea levels would rise.” [True or False] Conservative Republican Liberal Democrat

OCSI item response theory probability of correct answer Annenberg Center for Public Policy & Cultural Cognition Project. N = 1,769. Predicted probabilities derived via Monte Carlo Simulation based on logistic regression. Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). Political outlook predictor set at -1 SD & + 1 SD on “Left_right" scale for “liberal democrat” and “conservative Republican,” respectively. Colored bars refelct 0.95 confidence intervals. probability of correct answer Conservative Republican “Climate scientists believe that if the North Pole icecap melted as a result of human-caused global warming, global sea levels would rise.” [True or False] Liberal Democrat Conservative Republican “Climate scientists believe thathuman-caused global warming will result in flooding of many coastal regions.” [True or False] Ordinary climate science intelligence

What do “climate scientists believe...”? 0%

OCSI item response theory probability of correct answer Annenberg Center for Public Policy & Cultural Cognition Project. N = 1,769. Predicted probabilities derived via Monte Carlo Simulation based on logistic regression. Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). Political outlook predictor set at -1 SD & + 1 SD on “Left_right" scale for “liberal democrat” and “conservative Republican,” respectively. Colored bars refelct 0.95 confidence intervals. probability of correct answer Conservative Republican “Climate scientists believe that if the North Pole icecap melted as a result of human-caused global warming, global sea levels would rise.” [True or False] Liberal Democrat Conservative Republican “Climate scientists believe thathuman-caused global warming will result in flooding of many coastal regions.” [True or False] Ordinary climate science intelligence

“What gas do most scientists believe causes temperatures in the atmosphere to rise? Is it [hydrogen, helium, carbon dioxide, radon]?” OCSI item response theory probability of correct answer Liberal Democrat Conservative Republican Annenberg Center for Public Policy & Cultural Cognition Project. N = 1,769. Predicted probabilities derived via Monte Carlo Simulation based on logistic regression. Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). Political outlook predictor set at -1 SD & + 1 SD on “Left_right" scale for “liberal democrat” and “conservative Republican,” respectively. Colored bars refelct 0.95 confidence intervals. “Climate scientists believe thathuman-caused global warming will result in flooding of many coastal regions.” [True or False] Liberal Democrat Conservative Republican Ordinary climate science intelligence

“What gas do most scientists believe causes temperatures in the atmosphere to rise? Is it [hydrogen, helium, carbon dioxide, radon]?” OCSI item response theory probability of correct answer Liberal Democrat Conservative Republican Annenberg Center for Public Policy & Cultural Cognition Project. N = 1,769. Predicted probabilities derived via Monte Carlo Simulation based on logistic regression. Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). Political outlook predictor set at -1 SD & + 1 SD on “Left_right" scale for “liberal democrat” and “conservative Republican,” respectively. Colored bars refelct 0.95 confidence intervals. Liberal Democrat Conservative Republican Ordinary climate science intelligence “[Is the earth] getting warmer (a) mostly because of human activity such as burning fossil fuels or (b) mostly because of natural patterns in the earth’s environment?”

I.What ordinary members of the public “believe” about climate change doesn’t reflect what they know; it expresses who they are. II.Ordinary members of the public already know everything they need to about climate science; their knowledge isn't what what the “climate change” issue is assessing. III.Promoting constructive public engagement with climate science doesn’t depend on communicating more scientific information; it requires changing the meaning of the question. IV.What needs to be communicated to ordinary decisionmakers is normal climate science; what needs to be communicated to ordinary people is the normality of climate science. Four theses on climate science communication

I.What ordinary members of the public “believe” about climate change doesn’t reflect what they know; it expresses who they are. II.Ordinary members of the public already know everything they need to about climate science; their knowledge isn't what what the “climate change” issue is assessing. III.Promoting constructive public engagement with climate science doesn’t depend on communicating more scientific information; it requires changing the meaning of the question. IV.What needs to be communicated to ordinary decisionmakers is normal climate science; what needs to be communicated to ordinary people is the normality of climate science. Four theses on climate science communication

I.What ordinary members of the public “believe” about climate change doesn’t reflect what they know; it expresses who they are. II.Ordinary members of the public already know everything they need to about climate science; their knowledge isn't what what the “climate change” issue is assessing. III.Promoting constructive public engagement with climate science doesn’t depend on communicating more scientific information; it requires changing the meaning of the question. IV.What needs to be communicated to ordinary decisionmakers is normal climate science; what needs to be communicated to ordinary people is the normality of climate science. Four theses on climate science communication

I.What ordinary members of the public “believe” about climate change doesn’t reflect what they know; it expresses who they are. II.Ordinary members of the public already know everything they need to about climate science; their knowledge isn't what what the “climate change” issue is assessing. III.Promoting constructive public engagement with climate science doesn’t depend on communicating more scientific information; it requires changing the meaning of the question. IV.What needs to be communicated to ordinary decisionmakers is normal climate science; what needs to be communicated to ordinary people is the normality of climate science. Four theses on climate science communication

Ordinary Science Intelligence "Ordinary Science Intelligence": item response theory probability of correct answer Annenberg Center for Public Policy & Cultural Cognition Project. N = 2,000. Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). Predicted probabilities derived via Monte Carlo Simulation based on logistic regression. Colored bars reflect 0.95 confidence intervals. “Which gas makes up most of the Earth's atmosphere?” [Hydrogen, Nitrogen, Carbon Dioxide, Oxygen] Above avg. religiosity Below avg. religiosity “Human beings, as we know them today, developed from earlier species of animals.” (True/false) Above avg. religiosity Below avg. religiosity

Ordinary Science Intelligence "Ordinary Science Intelligence": item response theory probability of correct answer Annenberg Center for Public Policy & Cultural Cognition Project. N = 2,000. Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). Predicted probabilities derived via Monte Carlo Simulation based on logistic regression. Colored bars reflect 0.95 confidence intervals. “Which gas makes up most of the Earth's atmosphere?” [Hydrogen, Nitrogen, Carbon Dioxide, Oxygen] Above avg. religiosity Below avg. religiosity “According to the theory of evolution, human beings, as we know them today, developed from earlier species of animals.” (True/false) Above avg. religiosity Below avg. religiosity

Teaching evolution to “nonbelievers”

Global warming Fracking GM Foods Synthetic beef hormones Raw MilkMedical x-ray Fluoridation Nanotechnology Private gun ownership Risk and polarization: what's the denominator?

Global warming Fracking GM Foods Synthetic beef hormones Raw MilkMedical x-ray Fluoridation Nanotechnology Private gun ownership Risk and polarization: what's the denominator?

Global warming Fracking GM Foods Synthetic beef hormones Raw MilkMedical x-ray Fluoridation Nanotechnology Private gun ownership Risk and polarization: what's the denominator?

I.What ordinary members of the public “believe” about climate change doesn’t reflect what they know; it expresses who they are. II.Ordinary members of the public already know everything they need to about climate science; their knowledge isn't what what the “climate change” issue is assessing. III.Promoting constructive public engagement with climate science doesn’t depend on communicating more scientific information; it requires changing the meaning of the question. IV.What needs to be communicated to ordinary decisionmakers is normal climate science; what needs to be communicated to ordinary people is the normality of climate science. Four theses on climate science communication

I.What ordinary members of the public “believe” about climate change doesn’t reflect what they know; it expresses who they are. II.Ordinary members of the public already know everything they need to about climate science; their knowledge isn't what what the “climate change” issue is assessing. III.Promoting constructive public engagement with climate science doesn’t depend on communicating more scientific information; it requires changing the meaning of the question. IV.What needs to be communicated to ordinary decisionmakers is normal climate science; what needs to be communicated to ordinary people is the normality of climate science. Four theses on climate science communication

I.What ordinary members of the public “believe” about climate change doesn’t reflect what they know; it expresses who they are. II.Ordinary members of the public already know everything they need to about climate science; their knowledge isn't what what the “climate change” issue is assessing. III.Promoting constructive public engagement with climate science doesn’t depend on communicating more scientific information; it requires changing the meaning of the question. IV.What needs to be communicated to ordinary decisionmakers is normal climate science; what needs to be communicated to ordinary people is the normality of climate science. Four theses on climate science communication

Soute Cultural Cognition Project SE Fla. evidence-based science communication initiative

“How much risk do you believe global warming poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” United States as a whole (summer 2013) Southeast Florida (Fall 2013) no risk at all Egalitarian communitarian Hierarch individualist

4 SE Fla. Counties > avg. Left_right 78% agree “Local and state officials should be involved in identifying steps that local communities can take to reduce the risk posed by rising sea levels.” pct. agree “Landuse planners should identify assess and revise existing laws to assure that they reflect the risks posed by rising sea level and extreme weather.” pct. agree

“Have you ever heard of the Southeast Florida Regional Climate Compact?”

What should science communicators communicate to the public?

Communicate normality

Global warming Fracking GM Foods Synthetic beef hormones Raw MilkMedical x-ray Fluoridation Nanotechnology Private gun ownership Risk and polarization: what's the denominator?

Global warming Fracking GM Foods Synthetic beef hormones Raw MilkMedical x-ray Fluoridation Nanotechnology Private gun ownership Risk and polarization: what's the denominator?

Katie’s “Compact connector scouting report” form

PB County Examples Corporate Exec HOA Leader Architect Community Organizer COBWRA Leader Construction Manager Hotel President Marina Director Surf Club Leader Investment Manager

Communicate normality

Not “us vs. them” just us Communicate normality

www. culturalcognition.net “I am you!”