EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS AND EFFECTS SEATAC WASHINGTON Dr. Walter Hays US GEOLOGICAL SURVEY (retired) Global Alliance For Disaster Reduction

THE HEADLINES WE NEVER WANT TO READ COULD HAPPEN IN THE CASCADIA SUBDUCTION ZONE ANYTIME

“A CATASTROPHE IN THE SEATTLE, WA AREA” 1) M9.0 EARTHQUAKE 2) TSUNAMI WAVE RUNUP 3) MT RAINIER ERUPTS; LAHAR IMPACTS SEATAC AND THE AREA 4TH LARGEST QUAKE EVER 3 – 10 M TSUNAMI WAVES SEATAC IMMOBILIZED DATE: TBD

CASCADIA SUDUCTION ZONE

THREE KINDS OF EARTHQUAKES CRUSTAL (0-25 KM) WITH M UP TO 7.4 CASCADIA SUBDUCTION ZONE (25-40 KM) WITH M UP TO 9.5 BENIOF ZONE ( KM) WITH M UP TO 7.5 CRUSTAL (0-25 KM) WITH M UP TO 7.4 CASCADIA SUBDUCTION ZONE (25-40 KM) WITH M UP TO 9.5 BENIOF ZONE ( KM) WITH M UP TO 7.5 NISQUALLY WAS AN INTRAPLATE EARTHQUAKE LIKE THOSE OF 1949 AND 1965

SEATAC: AT RISK

SEATTLE: AT RISK

BACKGROUND

CASCADIA SUBDUCTION ZONE The Cascadia subduction zone, which extends from Vancouver Island to Cape Mendiceno, is capable of producing earthquakes of M 8 to 9+ and a destructive tsunami whenever M = 8.0+.

FREQUENCY OF CSZ EARTHQUAKES Moderate crustal earthquakes (M6.5) occur about once ever 35 years and great earthquakes (M ) occur about once every 500 years. At present, the probability of a M9.0 earthquake occurring during the next 50 years is 10 – 14 percent.

PAST CSZ EARTHQUAKES AND TSUNAMIS The Cascadia subduction zone produced a M9.0 earthquake and a destructive tsunami on January 26, 1700 that left its “fingerprints in the Puget Sound area” before traveling the Pacific and reaching Japan.

EARTHQUAKES USUALLY NO WARNING AND NO EVACUATION SURVIVAL DEPENDS ON THE SITING, DESIGN, AND CONSTRUCTION OF THE BUILDINGS TO WITHSTAND GROUND SHAKING ECONOMIC LOSS DEPENDS ON THE SITING, DESIGN, AND CONSTRUCTION.

LOSS OF LIFE LOSS OF LIFE LOSS OF LIFE HAS REACHED TENS OF THOUSANDS OR MORE IN SOME MAJOR EARTHQUAKES. EVACUATION TO GET PEOPLE OUT OF HARM’S WAY IS NOT POSSIBLE, BECAUSE THE TIME OF OCCURRENCE CAN NOT BE RELIABLY PREDICTED. LOSS OF LIFE HAS REACHED TENS OF THOUSANDS OR MORE IN SOME MAJOR EARTHQUAKES. EVACUATION TO GET PEOPLE OUT OF HARM’S WAY IS NOT POSSIBLE, BECAUSE THE TIME OF OCCURRENCE CAN NOT BE RELIABLY PREDICTED.

ANNUAL ECONOMIC LOSS ANNUAL ECONOMIC LOSS AVERAGE ANNUAL ECONOMIC LOSS TO BUILDINGS AND INFRASTRUCTURE FROM EARTH- QUAKES IN THE USA NOW REACHES $4 BILLIONS

THREE QUEESTIONS

THREE QUESTIONS?  WHAT CAN HAPPEN?  WHAT ARE THE SOCIETAL CONSEQUENCES OF WHAT CAN HAPPEN?  WHAT CAN BE DONE TO BE READY FOR A MAJOR EARTHQUAKE (IT MAY BE SHALLOW OR IT MAY BE DEEP) IN THE CASCADIA SUBDUCTION ZONE?

CONSENSUS ON QUESTION ONE  WHAT CAN HAPPEN

LOCAL JURISDICTIONS ARE AT HIGH RISK FROM THE EFFECTS OF 1) CRUSTAL EARTHQUAKES, 2) CASCADIA SUBDUCTION ZONE EARTHQUAKES AND TSUNAMIS, AND 3) (POSSIBLE) VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS

THE FAULTS

The Cascadia Subduction Zone is a Special Reverse Fault Strike-Slip Reverse Normal

So far, 13 major crustal faults are identified in the Puget Sound area.

Three of the most important faults are the Cascadia fault zone, the South Whidbey island fault zone, and the Seattle fault zone.

SEATTLE FAULT ZONE

The Seattle fault is an E-W trending zone of complex thrust and reverse faults up to 7 km wide and over 70 km long that delineates the north edge of the Seattle Uplift..

The Seattle fault was first identified in 1965, but it was not documented as a seismically active fault until 1992.

SOUTH WHIDBEY ISLAND FAULT ZONE

Unlike most fault systems that run parallel to oceans and mountain ranges, the South Whidbey Island fault zone crosses the volcanic arc of the Cascade Range, reaching possibly to the Tri-Cities in Southeast Washington, and possibly connecting with the Cascadia subduction zone.

The South Whidbey Island fault is long enough to generate a M earthquake, but it is shallow (20 km), which means that the ground shaking will be much stronger than if the focal depth were 50 km as in the 2001 Nisqually earthquake.

WHAT CAN HAPPEN?  STRONG GROUND SHAKING  LANDSLIDES  LIQUEFACTION  SUBSIDENCE  TSUNAMI WAVE RUN UP  AWAKENING OF MT RAINIER

SUBSIDENCE EARTHQUAKE TSUNAMI GROUND SHAKING FAULT RUPTURE FOUNDATION FAILURE SOIL AMPLIFICATION LIQUEFACTION LANDSLIDESAFTERSHOCKSSEICHE DAMAGE/LOSS DAMAGE/ LOSS DAMAGE/LOSS

THE GROUND SHAKING

DURATION OF GROUND SHAKING IN CSZ EARTHQUAKES Ground shaking will have a duration of about 20 seconds in a M6.0 earthquake, and up to ten minutes in a M9.0 earthquake.

A M9.0 CSZ EARTHQUAKE Long-period waves will dominate the ground shaking of a M9.0 CSZ earthquake. Long-period ground shaking is very efficient in exciting tall buildings, long bridges, and long pipelines into vibration.

M6 - 7 CRUSTAL EARTHQUAKES Short-period waves will dominate the ground shaking of a crustal CSZ earthquake. Short-period ground shaking is very efficient in exciting short buildings, short bridges, and interior contents into vibration.

AFTERSHOCKS OF A M9.0 CSZ EARTHQUAKE Aftershocks of a M9.0 earthquake will likely occur over a period of months. The aftershocks with M= 8.0+ may also generate a tsunami.

REALITY CHECK ON QUESTION TWO  WHAT ARE THE LIKELY CONSEQUENCES OF WHAT CAN HAPPEN

THE FEBRUARY 28, 2001 NISQUALLY EARTHQUAKE THE FEBRUARY 28, 2001 NISQUALLY EARTHQUAKE “A 10:54:32 AM WAKE UP CALL” FOR OLYMPIA, TACOMA, SEATTLE, THURSTON, PIERCE, AND KING COUNTIES “A 10:54:32 AM WAKE UP CALL” FOR OLYMPIA, TACOMA, SEATTLE, THURSTON, PIERCE, AND KING COUNTIES

NISQUALLY EARTHQUAKE M6.8 DEPTH: 33 MILES 10:54:32 AM 11MILES NE OF OLYMPIA 14 KM SW OF TACOMA 35 MILES SW OF SEATTLE M6.8 DEPTH: 33 MILES 10:54:32 AM 11MILES NE OF OLYMPIA 14 KM SW OF TACOMA 35 MILES SW OF SEATTLE GROUND SHAKING VARIABLE PGA OF 10 TO 25 PERCENT GRAVITY NO BUILDINGS COLLAPSED ONE DEATH 400 INJURIES ECONOMIC LOSSES ORDER OF $ 2 B GROUND SHAKING VARIABLE PGA OF 10 TO 25 PERCENT GRAVITY NO BUILDINGS COLLAPSED ONE DEATH 400 INJURIES ECONOMIC LOSSES ORDER OF $ 2 B

ECONOMIC LOSSES $ 1B-$2B-$3B??? DAMAGE TO 13,000 DWELLINGS DAMAGE TO 1,100 PUBLIC BUILDINGS DAMAGE TO TRANSPORTATION/ COMMUNICATION SYSTEMS $ 1B-$2B-$3B??? DAMAGE TO 13,000 DWELLINGS DAMAGE TO 1,100 PUBLIC BUILDINGS DAMAGE TO TRANSPORTATION/ COMMUNICATION SYSTEMS TWENTY-TWO COUNTIES APPLIED FOR FEDERAL ASISTANCE $15.5 MILLION IN RENTAL ASSISTANCE TWENTY-TWO COUNTIES APPLIED FOR FEDERAL ASISTANCE $15.5 MILLION IN RENTAL ASSISTANCE

CASCADIA SUBDUCTION ZONE

STRONG GROUND SHAKING THIRTEEN OF THIRTY-ONE RECORDS SHOWED GM > 10 PERCENT OF GRAVITY TWO SHOWED GM > 25 PERECNT OF GRAVITY THIRTEEN OF THIRTY-ONE RECORDS SHOWED GM > 10 PERCENT OF GRAVITY TWO SHOWED GM > 25 PERECNT OF GRAVITY GROUND MOTIONS WERE COMPLEX, VARYING WIDELY AS FUNCTION OF DEPTH OF QUAKE, GEOLOGY, AND SOFTNESS OF SOILS GROUND MOTIONS WERE COMPLEX, VARYING WIDELY AS FUNCTION OF DEPTH OF QUAKE, GEOLOGY, AND SOFTNESS OF SOILS

BUILDING DAMAGE FIFTY “RED TAGGED” BUILDINGS TWO HUNDRED FIFTY “YELLOW TAGGED” BUILDINGS MOSTLY URM’S CHIMNEY DAMAGE NO COLLAPSES SOME POUNDING ONE DEATH 400 INJURIES MOSTLY URM’S CHIMNEY DAMAGE NO COLLAPSES SOME POUNDING ONE DEATH 400 INJURIES

CAPITAL BUILDING--OLYMPIA

PIONEER SQUARE--SEATTLE

EXAMPLES OF BUSINESS INTERRUPTION POWER COMMUNICATION TRANSPORTATION NON-STRUCTURAL DAMAGE DEBRIS NO CONTINGENCY/ RECOVERY PLAN POWER COMMUNICATION TRANSPORTATION NON-STRUCTURAL DAMAGE DEBRIS NO CONTINGENCY/ RECOVERY PLAN WASHINGTON FEDERAL SAVINGS BANK STARBUCKS MICROSOFT AMAZON DOT COM SEATAC WASHINGTON FEDERAL SAVINGS BANK STARBUCKS MICROSOFT AMAZON DOT COM SEATAC

LIFELINE SYSTEMS SEATAC: ONE-HALF OF CAPACITY COMMUNICATIONS OUT 24 HOURS ELECTRICAL SERVICE --6 HOURS WATER SERVICE MAINTAINED GAS RELIGHTS--1 WEEK SEATAC: ONE-HALF OF CAPACITY COMMUNICATIONS OUT 24 HOURS ELECTRICAL SERVICE --6 HOURS WATER SERVICE MAINTAINED GAS RELIGHTS--1 WEEK INTERSTATE 5 CLOSED 12 HOURS ALASKAN WAY VIADUCT OPEN- CLOSED-OPEN 4TH AVENUE BRIDGE--TRAFFIC PORTS--NO DISRUPTION INTERSTATE 5 CLOSED 12 HOURS ALASKAN WAY VIADUCT OPEN- CLOSED-OPEN 4TH AVENUE BRIDGE--TRAFFIC PORTS--NO DISRUPTION

SEATAC CONTROL TOWER

SEATAC AIRPORT AIRPORT CONTROL TOWERS ARE ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO STRUCTURAL AND NON-STRUCTURAL DAMAGE FROM GROUND SHAKING FLIGHT CAPACITY REDUCED FROM 40/HOUR TO 24/HOUR

LIQUEFACTION MULTIPLE SITES IN OLYMPIA (CAPITAL LAKE) AND TUMWATER MULTIPLE SITES ALONG THE DUWAMISH RIVER RUNWAY OF KING COUNTY AIRPORT (BOEING FIELD) MULTIPLE SITES IN OLYMPIA (CAPITAL LAKE) AND TUMWATER MULTIPLE SITES ALONG THE DUWAMISH RIVER RUNWAY OF KING COUNTY AIRPORT (BOEING FIELD) OBSERVATIONS WERE CONSISTENT WITH THOSE IN THE 1949 AND 1965 EARTHQUAKES

LIQUEFACTION

LATERAL SPREADING

LANDSLIDES

4TH AVENUE BRIDGE--OLYMPIA

THE TSUNAMI

A TSUNAMI IS INEVITABLE IN A M8-9 CSZ EARTHQUAKE A TSUNAMI IS INEVITABLE IN A M8-9 CSZ EARTHQUAKE

A CSZ TSUNAMI Residents of coastal communities will have about minutes before the arrival of tsunami waves. Waves will travel inland ½ mile or more, depending on the terrain, and then return to the ocean.

A CSZ TSUNAMI Tsunami waves can continue for hours. Late-arriving tsunami waves can be larger and more deadly than early-arriving waves.

SUBSIDENCE IN A M9.0 CSZ EARTHQUAKE Much of the land along the Pacific coast will subside (sink) about 5 feet during the earthquake. Coastal communities will be susceptible to flooding and tsunami wave run up.

AWAKENING OF MOUNT RAINIER

VOLCANO HAZARDS (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS) VERTICAL PLUME ASH AND TEPHRA LATERAL BLAST PYROCLASTIC FLOWS

VOLCANO HAZARDS (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS) LAVA FLOWS LAHARS EARTHQUAKES (related to movement of lava) “VOLCANIC WINTER”

CONSENSUS ON QUESTION THREE  WHAT CAN BE DONE TO BE READY FOR A MAJOR EARTHQUAKE

KNOW WHAT IS LIKELY; RECOGNIZE AND ELIMINATE PHYSICAL VULNERABILITIES IN YOUR COMMUNITY’S BUILDINGS AND LIFELINES KNOW WHAT IS LIKELY; RECOGNIZE AND ELIMINATE PHYSICAL VULNERABILITIES IN YOUR COMMUNITY’S BUILDINGS AND LIFELINES GOALS: KNOW WHAT IS LIKELY AND AVOID SINGLE POINTS OF FAILURE

PART 2 HISTORIC HEADLINES READ BY THE WORLD THAT ARE RELEVANT FOR SEATAC AND THE PUGET SOUND AREA

A C ATASTROPHE IN JAPAN 1) M9.0 TOHOKU EARTHQUAKE 2) TSUNAMI WAVE RUNUP 3) FUKUSHIMA NUCLEAR CRISIS 4TH LARGEST QUAKE EVER 3 – 10 M TSUNAMI WAVES RADIATION LEAKS 2:46 pm MARCH 11, 2011

THE HEADLINES WE NEVER WANT TO READ COULD HAPPEN IN THE CASCADIA SUBDUCTION ZONE ANYTIME

“A CATASTROPHE IN SEATTLE AREA” 1) M9.0 EARTHQUAKE 2) TSUNAMI WAVE RUNUP 3) MT RAINIER LAHAR IMPACTS SEATAC AND THE AREA 4TH LARGEST QUAKE EVER 3 – 10 M TSUNAMI WAVES SEATAC IMMOBILIZED UNKNOWN DATE

BACKGROUND

Natural Phenomena that Caused the Catastrophe Planet Earth’s Ongoing Convergent Plate Motion Caused:  Earthquakes (e.g., The M9.0 Tohoku Quake in Japan)

CASCADIA SUBDUCTION ZONE AND JAPAN’S SUBDUCTION ZONE The Cascadia subduction zone and the subduction zone near Sendai, Japan are similar in a tectonic sense. Japan’s subduction zone produced a M9.0 earthquake and a destructive tsunami on 11 March 2011.

Natural Phenomena that Caused the Catastrophe Planet Earth’s Convergent Plate Motion Caused:  A Tsunami (e.g., 3-10 m wave runup in Japan)

ALL THE RESULT OF PLATE TECTONICS

THE EARTHQUAKE GROUND SHAKING WITHIN SECONDS AFTER 2:46 PM

LOCATION: 133 KM (80 MI) OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU

OFFSHORE EPICENTER It only took seconds for the P- and S-waves and minutes for the tsunami waves to reach Sendai..

SUMMARY OF SOCIETAL IMPACTS: EATHQUAKE Ground shaking lasted 300 seconds (compared with about seconds for the 1994 Northridge, CA or the 2001 Nisqually, Washington quakes). Hundreds of aftershocks, many in the M6+ range and comparable in size with the damaging 1971 San Fernando CA quake, followed the main shock.

SUMMARY OF SOCIETAL IMPACTS: EARTHQUAKE The ground shaking from the main shock and aftershocks caused major damage, but no unusual failures of structures or lifeline systems, in northern Japan.

SUMMARY OF SOCIETAL IMPACTS: EARTHQUAKE Four million were left without electricity. Metro, trains, and airport shut down.

AKASAKA: TRAFFIC JAM AFTER EARTHQUAKE

PASSENGERS STRANDED: SENDAI STATION

FIRES SIMULTANEOUSLY

SUMMARY OF SOCIETAL IMPACTS: EARTHQUAKE Simultaneously, wide spread fires burned out of control.

FIRE: NEAR SENDAI AIRPORT

THE NUCLEAR CRISIS DEVELOPING DURING DAYS 1- 7

SUMMARY OF SOCIETAL IMPACTS: NUCLEAR The nuclear power plants in the region shut down automatically; an immediate evacuation of several thousand people in a 20 km radius followed. Following an explosion, radiation levels were 1,000 times normal levels at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear facility.

FUKUSHIMA NUCLEAR FACILITY HAD 3 FAILURES

THE TSUNAMI ABOUT 15 MINUTES LATER

SUMMARY OF SOCIETAL IMPACTS: TSUNAMI The tsunami that followed within about 15 minutes, changed coast lines by almost 2 m and inundated land that will probably never be used again.

JAPAN: BEFORE (LEFT) AND AFTER (RIGHT)

THE TSUNAMIGENIC SOURCE: 130 KM (80 MI) OFFSHORE The tsunami slammed the east coast of Japan, sweeping away boats, cars, homes and people, then racing across the Pacific at kph (500 to 800 mph) to arrive 5-7 hours later in Alaska and Hawaii and other parts of the West Coast of the USA, and 18 hours later along the coast of South America.

TSUNAMI WAVES:NATON MYIAGI PREFECTURE

OARAI INUNDATED BY TSUNAMI

TSUNAMI WAVES REACH COAST OF NORTHERN JAPAN

THE 3-10 M TSUNAM WAVE RUNUP WAS DEVASTATING The tsunami waves inundated towns, immobilized airports, destroyed buildings, and treated everything (e.g., people, cars) in its path as debris.

SENDAI AIRPORT

SENDAI AIRPORT: COVERED WITH MUD FROM TSUNAMI

SENDAI AIRPORT: COVERED WITH CARS, MUD, & DEBRIS

TSUNAMI WAVE PATH

THE TSUNAMI TRAVELED ACROSS THE PACIFIC

URGENT SOCIETAL NEEDS Vertical evacuation to escape the tsunami wave run up, the only way to save lives, was not available to everyone. Search and rescue: an urgent need over a wide geographical area, was hindered. Mass care and health care needs urgent, especially in view of the high radiation. With so many people missing, deaths are expected to reach in the thousands.

SEARCH AND RESCUE

HAWAII The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center reported that water rushed ashore in Honolulu, swamping the beach in Waikiki and surging over the break wall in the world-famous resort, BUT stopping short of the area's high-rise hotels.

CRESCENT CITY, CA

SAN FRANCISCO, CA

LIMA PERU: EMPTY BEACHES AFTER WARNING