Module 10: Converting recommendations into policy options ILO, 2013

Key questions How do we select recommendations that can be translated into scenarios? How do we design scenarios? What are low and high scenarios? What assumptions can be made and when do we need to make them?

ABND FACTSHEET Step 1 – Building the assessment matrix including the identification of priority recommendations Step 2 – Rapid Assessment Protocol to estimate the cost of implementing the social protection provisions Step 3 – Finalisation of the assessment report for endorsement and further action by the higher levels of government Steps of ABND

ABND FACTSHEET Step 1 – Building the assessment matrix including the identification of priority recommendations Step 2 – Rapid Assessment Protocol to estimate the cost of implementing the social protection provisions Step 3 – Finalisation of the assessment report for endorsement and further action by the higher levels of government Starting the second step of ABND

From Step 1 to Step 2 There are 2 types of recommendations Recommendations to introduce social insurance, work on coordination between schemes and operations, qualitative recommendations to improve quality of services We need to conduct further studies We can use the RAP Protocol Recommendations to introduce non-contributory benefits, increase non-contributory benefit amounts, extend coverage

From recommendations to scenarios Recommendations may be selected for converting into scenarios based on several conditions: in line with the government’s priority strongly advocated by representatives of the persons concerned data is available for the RAP exercise assumptions can be made where data is not available

√ √ Recommendations for “health” in Indonesia: 1.Develop a specific and clear benefit package for the new national health insurance programme 2.Extend non-contributory health insurance (currently for the poor) to the entire informal economy 3.Provide a treatment and prevention package for mother-to- child transmission of HIV and syphilis 4.Improve the database and the targeting method of the health insurance programme for the poor Which recommendations to select?

√ √ Recommendations for “children” in Indonesia: 1.Expand the CCT programme to more areas and more households 2.Explore merging the CCT and scholarship programmes 3.Explore and calculate the cost of a universal child allowance programme 4.Improve management and efficiency of the Raskin Food Programme Which recommendations to select?

√ Recommendations for “working age” in Indonesia: 1.Conduct a feasibility study for an unemployment insurance scheme and explore linkages with employment services 2.Develop a Public Employment Programme linked with skills development for workers in the informal economy Which recommendations to select?

√ Recommendations for “elderly and disabled” in Indonesia: 1.Extend a non-contributory minimum pension to the elderly and people with severe disabilities 2.Conduct a feasibility study to introduce a contributory pension scheme for formal sector workers 3.Create a sound database of disabled people to facilitate targeting Which recommendations to select?

RecommendationScenario Recommendation 1: Expand the CCT programme Scenario 1: CCT to all poor households (not only very poor households) in all provinces at the current benefit level Scenario 2: CCT to all poor households and an increased benefit for children in the age group Recommendation 3: Introduce a universal child allowance programme Scenario 1: Child allowance for all children at a specific benefit level Scenarios for “children”: Designing scenarios

RecommendationScenario Recommendation 1: Public Employment Programme linked with skills development for workers in the informal economy Scenario 1: Establish a public works guarantee linked with vocational training: 30 days of work per person per year + 10 days of training every 5 years Scenarios for “working age”: Designing scenarios

RecommendationScenario Recommendation 1: Provide non-contributory minimum pension to the elderly and people with severe disabilities Scenario 1: Extend a non-contributory pension for all people with severe disabilities Scenario 2: Extend a non-contributory pension for all vulnerable elderly people, i.e. elderly who have no family support Scenario 3: Establish a non-contributory universal pension for 55+ age group Scenario 4: Establish a non-contributory universal pension for 65+ age group Scenarios for “elderly and disabled”: Designing scenarios

Scenario Scenario 1: Extend a non-contributory pension for all people with severe disabilities Scenario 2: Extend a non-contributory pension for all vulnerable elderly people, i.e. elderly who have no family support Scenario 3: Establish a non-contributory universal pension for 55+ age group Scenario 4: Establish a non-contributory universal pension for 65+ age group Low and high scenarios Low scenario: combination of scenarios to provide minimum benefits Low = High scenario: combination of scenarios to provide maximum benefits High = 1 + 3

Making assumptions Scenario 1 for “elderly and disabled” in Indonesia: Extend a non- contributory pension for all people with severe disabilities Benefits: IDR 300,000 per month (current JSPACA benefit level, slightly above average poverty line), indexed on inflation Estimated beneficiaries: based on MoSA data, increasing at the same rate as general population growth Take-up rate: progressively grow from 11.8% (present coverage) to 100% in 2020 Administrative costs: 15% (similar to targeted schemes)

Making assumptions Scenario 4 for “elderly and disabled” in Indonesia: Establish a non-contributory universal pension for 65+ age group Benefits: IDR 226,335 per month (average poverty line in 2011), indexed on inflation Estimated beneficiaries: based on population projections Take-up rate: 10% per year Administrative costs: 5% (similar to non-targeted schemes)