+ Choosing Presidential Candidates: Democratic Process or Hot Mess?

+ Free and Fair Elections Which characteristics below are necessary to free and fair elections? 1. Elections should occur regularly. That is, they should be scheduled every so many years. 2. Citizens should not be afraid to vote for whoever they want to vote for. 3. Most adult citizens should have the right to run for office. 4. Everyone’s vote should count the same. 5. The ballot should be secret. 6. Participation in elections should not be based on a citizen’s wealth. 7. There should not be obstacles that make it hard for citizens to vote. 8. Elections should not be corrupt. For example, people should not be paid for their votes. All votes should be counted. People should not vote more than once. 9. Elections should be held on weekends so more people can vote. 10. Winners should be required to have a majority of all the votes cast (51%).

Presidential Nominating Rules: A Comparison of the Two Parties Source: Rasmussen Reports based on “Delegate Selection Rules For the 2012 Democratic National Convention” (as adopted by the Democratic National Committee, August 20, 2010); “The Rules of the Republican Party” (as adopted by the 2008 Republican National Convention September 1, 2008, and amended by the Republican National Committee on August 6, 2010).

+ Calendar Democrats: No state can hold its event before the first Tuesday in March, with the exception of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina, which can vote in February. Republicans: Same Reality: States—including those listed above and Florida— are jockeying for position, and the position is significantly before February. To maintain first position, Iowa is now looking at January 3 as the date for their caucuses.

+ Distribution of Delegates Democrats: Proportional representation is mandated. Any candidate who wins 15% of the vote statewide or in a district qualifies for a share of the delegates. Must get 50% + 1 at national convention to win Republicans: Winner take all is permitted in events held April 1 or later; any event held before then must have proportional representation. Must get 50% + 1 to win at national convention. Reality: The proportional representation requirement for early Republican events is new, and no one seems sure how it will work. It is designed to keep the contest open longer. Proportional representation is the reason (according to many) that the Obama-Clinton race went so late in the nominating season in In the past, Republicans have argued that winner-take-all gives states more clout because it makes their state worth visiting. Many want to keep winner-take-all (but still not be one of the late states).

+ Bonus Delegates Democrats: 10% for states that vote in April; 20% bonus for states that vote in May or June; additional 15% bonus for states that hold their event in conjunction with two or more neighboring states on or after March 20. Republicans: No bonus delegates Reality: As far as I can tell, the bonus delegates are a new twist for the Democrats. This is obviously a strategy to encourage states to hold their primaries/caucuses later, although it doesn’t seem especially important given that there is no challenger to the president. However, the Democrats do see delaying their process as a way to keep the focus on in-fighting among the Republicans.

+ Superdelegates Democrats: All Democratic governors, members of Congress, DNC members, and distinguished party leaders are automatic unpledged delegates; in 2012, they must declare their presidential preference no more than 10 days after the conclusion of their state’s delegate-selection process. They are 20% of the total number of delegates. Republicans: All RNC members are automatic delegates; it is unclear whether they are free agents or bound to reflect their state’s primary or caucus process. Reality: In 2008, the superdelegates caused some PR problems for Democrats; the requirement that they declare is a reform designed to prevent “kingmaker” perceptions.

+ Penalties Democrats: For violation of calendar rules, a state loses 50% of its pledged delegates; in addition, any candidate who campaigns in a state that is declared in violation is prohibited from winning any pledged delegates from that state. Republicans: For violation of calendar rules, a state loses 50% of its delegates. Reality: Florida is planning to have its primary on January 31, violating the party rules. However, the RNC has signed off on a plan for the state to have its 50 delegates (reduced by 50% in accordance with above) to be awarded on a winner-take- all basis in violation of the new distribution rules.

Republican Calendar Red = January 2012 Orange = February 2012 Yellow = March 2012 Light green = April 2012 Medium green = May 2012 Teal = June 2012 This is as of late November (from Wikipedia); changes are still possible. Also note that in some states, the Democratic primary or caucus will be in a different month; that information is not included because there is no competition on the Democratic side.

Results: 2012 results

+ Caucus and Primary States Caucus states: Iowa, Nevada, Maine, Colorado, Minnesota, Washington, Alaska, Idaho, North Dakota, Wyoming, Kansas, U.S. Virgin Islands, Hawaii, Missouri,* American Samoa, Guam, Northern Marianas, Puerto Rico *Missouri also has a nonbinding primary scheduled. Primary states: New Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida, Arizona, Michigan, Massachusetts, Georgia, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Alabama, Mississippi, Illinois, Louisiana, Maryland, District of Columbia, Wisconsin, Connecticut, Delaware, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia, Nebraska, Oregon, Arkansas, Kentucky, California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota, Utah

+ Proposals for Reform American Plan. In this plan, the election season would be divided into ten two-week periods. In general, small states would vote earlier, large states later. This plan would allow small states to continue to receive attention and grass-roots campaigns (i.e., those with little money) to have early successes, while leaving the overall results in doubt longer than the front-loaded system does. A downside is that because the states in each two-week period could be scattered around the United States, travel costs for candidates could be high.

+ Proposals for Reform Rotating Regional Primary System. Under this plan, the country would be split into four regions: the West, Midwest, South, and Northeast. The four primaries would be held in different months; the order would rotate from year to year. The advantages of this system are that it would lower campaign costs by allowing candidates to campaign in one region at a time. In addition, every state would have an opportunity to be an “early state” once in a four-election cycle. Disadvantages would include the need for significant campaign funds to launch a campaign (since many states would vote in the first primary). Also, if the first primary was held in a region with a strong political bias (e.g., the South or the Northeast), that could unfairly influence the outcome.

+ Proposals for Reform National Primary. All state primaries and caucuses would be held on a single day. This system would ensure that all votes count equally in determining the candidate; no one would be voting after the nomination had already been secured. However, it would not acknowledge the role of states in our federal system. Also, it could eliminate any chance of a grass-roots candidate picking up momentum through early success.

+ Proposals for Reform (not) Keep the System We Have. The current system allows candidates who do not have a lot of money to campaign locally in early states. As they pick up votes there, they can raise more money to help them in the larger states. This system gets a lot of information out to voters. It gives states an important role, which is part of our federalist system. However, it undercuts the notion of “one person, one vote,” as some votes are more important in this system—and those votes may be in states that do not represent the United States as a whole.