Spring 2013UNC Asheville ATMS/LSIC 179 Global Climate Change and China Alex Huang, Atmospheric Sciences Students will learn the science of global climate change and its impacts to China. The subjects include geography, climate zones, and historical climate of China. The environmental challenges of China in the modern century will be discussed.

Spring 2013UNC Asheville ATMS/LSIC 179 Global Climate Change and China Global Climates Climate Processes Climate Global Climate Change Future Global Climates China Impacts of Climate Change to China China’s Strategy to Deal with Climate Change Challenges

Republic of China (ROC) People’s Republic of China (PRC)

23 Provinces, 4 Municipalities, 5 Autonomous Regions and 2 Special Administrative Regions (SARs) of PRC. One Time Zone in China; It is UTC + 8 hours; No daylight saving time in summer.

4 Municipalities Shanghai, 22 million people (2010) Shanghai Beijing 1Shanghai 22,315,42611ShenyangLiaoning5,743,718 Tianjin Guangzhou 2Beijing 18,827,00012HangzhouZhejiang5,695,313 3Tianjin 11,090,31413Chongqing 5,402,721 4GuangzhouGuangdong11,070,65414HarbinHeilongjiang4,517,549 5ShenzhenGuangdong10,357,93815SuzhouJiangsu4,074,000 6DongguanGuangdong8,220,93716JinanShandong3,922,180 7ChengduSichuan7,123,69717Xi'anShaanxi3,890,098 8Hong Kong 7,055,07118WuxiJiangsu3,542,319 9NanjingJiangsu6,852,98419HefeiAnhui3,352,076 10WuhanHubei6,434,37320ChangchunJilin3,341,700 Beijing, 18 million Tianjin, 11 million Guangzhou, 11 million

Topography of China High mountains Plateau Desert Arid/Steppe Hills Plains

Climates of China

Climates of United States and China

Tendency of mean annual temperature in China from 1951 to (Ren Guoyu 2004). Temperature Changes of the Past 50 Years in China

China is under international pressure for actions Climate change interrupts agriculture production Climate change affects people’s lives and properties Climate change hinders economic growth and political stability Why should China be concerned about climate change?

United States: 15 trillion China: 7.3 trillion 9,872 billion (ranked 2) 14,720 billion World Total Gross Domestic Product (GDP) listed by United Nation in eco_gdp_percap-economy-gdp-per- capita&country=ch-china GDP per capita: 7,369 (ranked 123) GDP per capita: 49,000 (ranked 13) Source: CIA World Factbooks

bank.org/indicat or/EN.ATM.CO2E. PC/countries/all? display=graph ,687,114,000 5,299,563,000 World CO 2 Emission in 2009 World CO 2 Emission per capita in 2009 Carbon Dioxide Emissions by China: 7.7 billion metric tons (ranked 1 st in the world of 31.5 billion metric tons)

China has to continue its rapid economic development China has to maintain political stability China has to mitigate the impacts of climate change China has to reduce the dependency of coal China has to upgrade its infrastructure of industry China has to defend its international reputation Why should China do about climate change?

Controlling carbon dioxide emissions without hindering economic development is a major challenge for China and the world (Zeng et al 2008). The Bottom Line is

Goals: To reduce energy consumption per unit of GDP by 16 percent by 2015 from the level in 2011 (2% reduction in 2011). Cut CO 2 emissions per unit of GDP by 17 percent by 2015 (40% by 2020) compared to 2005 levels. Raise the proportion of non-fossil fuels in the overall primary energy mix to 11.4% by 2015 ( 8.6% in 2011). China’s Policies and Actions for Addressing Climate Chang by the National development and Reform Commission, PRC (2012)

1.Mitigating Climate Change 2.Adapting to Climate Change 3.Promoting Low-Carbon Pilot Projects 4.Strengthening Capacity Building 5.Participation of the Whole Society 6.Proactive Participation in International Negotiations 7.Enhancing International Exchange and Cooperation China’s Policies and Actions

(I) Adjusting Industrial Structure Transformation and upgrading of traditional industries Supporting the development of strategic and newly emerging industries Vigorously developing the (hi-tech) service industry Speeding up the elimination of backward (obsolete) production capacity Is China a developing or developed country? 1. Mitigating Climate Change Residential, 11% Commercial, 4% Industrial, 77% Transport ation, 8%

Coal Consumption: 3.8 billion short tons (2011) (ranked 1 st in the world) Oil Consumption: 9.8 million barrels per day (2011) (ranked 2 nd in the world) Natural Gas Consumption: 3.8 trillion cubic feet (2011) (ranked 5 th in the world) y-data.cfm?fips=CH Electricity Net Consumption: 3.3 trillion kilowatthours (2011) (ranked 2 nd in the word) Coal, 70% Hydroelectric, 6% Oil, 19% Natural gas, 4% Nuclear, 1% Other renewables, 0.3%

China total energy consumption: 2.5 Billion Metric Tons of Oil Equivalent (2011) (ranked 1 st in the world) (1 quadrillion = ) Non-fossil fuels Coal, 70%

China energy use per capita : 1,807 kg of oil equivalent per capita per year(2010) (ranked 61st in the world) short-history-of-200-years-of-global-energy-use/254909/ t=20 y=default Why should we take the blame?

Comparison of Energy Use in China and US Transportation, 29% Residential, 21%Commercial, 18% Industrial, 32% Residential, 11% Commercial, 4% Industrial, 77% Transporta tion, 8% United States Data from Energy Information Administration China

6.Proactive Participation in International Negotiations (III)China’s Basic Positions and Stand on Participation in the Doha 2012 UN Climate Change Conference Addressing climate change is based on the principles of fairness and the principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities and own capacities.” Developed countries should fulfill their promises to reduce emissions and provide support in terms of funding, technology transfer and capacity building, and ensure that the already-established mechanisms and institutions start substantive work, and play a substantial role in offering support to developing countries in coping with climate change.

China recognizes the urgency and importance of the climate change issue and attempts to mitigate the impacts of climate change; however, China is vast and the overhaul of infrastructure is a demanding challenge. The Bottom Line is

Predictions of future atmospheric composition Fig. 8.4 Atmospheric abundances of carbon dioxide for the four emissions families. Feeding emission scenarios into a carbon-cycle model to estimate CO 2 concentration CO 2 is responsible for 80% of the radiative forcing caused by the increase of greenhouse gases. A2: high but uneven economic growth A1: high but even economic growth/efficient technologies B2: slow but uneven economic growth B1: slow but even economic growth

USA CHINA New Supercritical and Ultra-Supercritical Coal-Fired Power Plants Installed Annually, by Capacity

World, US, China Energy Consumption,

Projected World Energy Mix in 2035 Coal, 27% Oil, 19% Natural gas, 24% Nuclear, 7% Other renewables, 14%