Buapun Promphakping buapun@kku.ac.th Poverty Analysis Buapun Promphakping buapun@kku.ac.th

Different sorts of poverty Extreme poverty: an inability to meet basic needs Lack of opportunity: chances and choices to participate in social, economic, political and civil live are seriously limited. Vulnerability: individual, family and community are vulnerable to circumstances, change in politics, economics, wars, natural calamity, etc.

Poverty Analysis? Approaches and methodologies to understand the poor. Ways to understand causes of poverty. Ways to reduce poverty.

Questions? What cause poverty? What are their consequences? What are interactions of various sets of causes, especially social process and power that perpetuate poverty? What are ways and means to escape from poverty trap? What are specific types of the poor, what cause them to be poor, how they deal with their poverty? How to prioritize measurements and interventions to eradicate poverty?

Approach Country Profile PRSP Poverty Reduction Strategy Process Poverty and Social Impact Analysis Participatory Poverty Assessment

Poverty Country Profile

Country Profile An analytical synthesis of poverty related information to answer the questions: Who are the poor? Where do they live? What are the main characteristics? Why they are poor?

How to conduct country profile Step 1: defining poverty Household income/consumption, i.e. poverty line and their associate indices. Human capabilities: adult literacy, child malnutrition, primary enrollment rate, etc. Access to public services Employment and assets Natural resources

How to conduct country profile Step 2: Analyze available information to answer four questions: Who are the poor? Where do they live? What are the characteristics of their poverty? Why they are poor?

Existing data sources National census (household survey) Basic Needs Survey Village Profile Survey Report of Ministries/ Department

Health Index Life expectancy Rate of child malnutrition Rate of HIVs Rate of population consuming alcohol and tobacco

How to conduct country profile (cont.) Step 3: Determining poverty tends Long term scenario Short term scenario Step 4: Consider national policy framework National development strategy Poverty reduction strategy Government policies Public expenditure program.

Poverty Reduction Strategy Process PRSP

What is Poverty Reduction Process (PRSP) Main tool used for policy & national budget priorities and economic planning Basis for donor coordination – aid resources aligned to PRSP priorities.

What is Poverty Reduction Process (PRSP) Designed to be consultative process involving all country’s major sectors and stakeholders Guides Central Government budgetary allocations to sectors such as energy, health, education and agriculture

Impact of PRSP Consensus on priority activities and institutional approach Education – Primary education Health – Primary health care, HIV

Health, education and water analysts able to demonstrate: Investment in health, education and water = poverty reduction

Poverty and Social Impact Analysis PSIA

Poverty and Social Impact Analysis (PSIA) PSIA is the analysis of intended and unintended consequences of actual or potential policy interventions on the well-being of different social groups, with a particular focus on the poor and vulnerable PSIA focuses on The distributional impacts on different stakeholders, income and non–income dimensions The positive and negative impacts of the policy agenda Let me explain where we come from, If you recall the definition , the focus and the goal of PSIA approach you see that there is a strong emphasis on understanding the impacts of reforms on different social groups, on non-income dimensions and building constituencies for change These elements of the approach do are not easily captures by econometrics and require a strong process orientation as well as the integration of a second type of analysis which we refer to as social, political and institutional analysis.

Goals Understand better the likely impacts of reforms on different groups (disaggregated along ethic, gender, age, spatial and livelihood lines) Improving quality: Promoting pro-poor policy agendas Facilitating the process: Building a broad constituency for change

PSIA: Main Elements - Stakeholder Analysis - Policy dialogue process 4 Main Analytical Elements of a PSIA: Activities: - Stakeholder Analysis - Policy dialogue process Institutional Analysis - Monitoring during Impact Analysis implementation Risk Analysis Social Analysis  brings different research focus,  generates different information,  generated via different set of tools and methods

Selection of policy agenda for PSIA PSIA: A policy process Selection of policy agenda for PSIA Analysis Policy Dialog Monitoring Anis Recommendation Policy design

What is the value added of social analysis in PSIA? Explains how social identity and social relations may affect policy outcomes and impacts Analysis of informal rules and behaviors helps to understand implementation issues and constraints Focus on Analysis of interests and influence of different stakeholders helps to understand effects of political economy Helps to identify socio-political and institutional risks Emphasis on PSIA process and dialogue helps to identify bottlenecks and preconditions for ownership of reforms Examples: SNIM being worried that a hand over of electrityc and water production impedes their production, as they do not trust the private sector to function properly Ethnic minorities not using health facilities, as they can not communicate with staff and staff does not repect their traditions Change of public perception to level of price for elctricity in the region, perception of the functions of ADMARC

Policy tools Prices Employment Access to goods and services Assets Transfers and taxes Governance In the political sphere: institutional reform in South Asia has guaranteed one third seats in local government to women governance initiatives in Brazil encourage participation in local budget design and execution. In the social sphere: power relations shift when women in Ethiopia are able to hold men accountable through reform of the justice system Or when minority groups in Romania achieve greater access to information about their legal rights.

1. Country Social Analysis (CSA) CSA is an upstream, political economy analysis that seeks to inform policy dialogue and to improve the effectiveness and sustainability of development interventions provide recommendations for the removal of barriers to equal opportunities for participating in development, accessing public institutions and holding them accountable,

The CSA framework analyzes the interaction between two dimensions: Social diversity, assets, and livelihoods What is the existing distribution of and access to assets and services across different social groups? What is the impact of that distribution in the livelihoods and coping strategies of the poor? Power, institutions, and governance What are the institutions that mediate access of the poor to assets and services? How do these institutions impact policy making and resource reallocation ?

1.2. Stakeholder analysis 1.2.1. Macro-level stakeholder analysis Questions: Who are the stakeholders? What is their position with respect to policy change? What motivates them? Tools: Policy interest matrix Political mapping 1.2.1. Macro-level institutional analysis Questions: What are the institutional rules and relationships that influence policy reform? Tools: Network analysis Transaction cost analysis

2. Understanding the policy implementation process Analysis of the process of implementation allows us to explore how, why and under what conditions a policy intervention might work, or fail Objective: a greater understanding of the contextual factors, mechanisms and processes underlying a policy’s success or failure.

Stakeholders: focuses on interests and the relative importance and influence of different interests groups and actors and the role each might play in the implementation process

Institutions: as a sets of rules that govern individual and collective behavior. Assesses whether institutions mediate and distort the anticipated poverty and social impact of policy reform Institutions may be formal ( legal systems, property rights, enforcement mechanisms); or informal, (cultural practices and social norms)

Institutions operate and influence behavior in different domains of daily life: the state domain (governing justice, political processes and service delivery), the market domain (governing credit, labor and goods) and the societal domain (governing community and family behavior).

2. Understanding the policy implementation process 2.1. Meso-level Stakeholder Analysis Objective: To test assumptions about the interests of social actors. Tools: Stakeholder analysis matrices Micro-political mapping Force field analysis

2.2. Meso-level Institutional analysis Objective: To test assumptions about the social rules governing the implementation of policy Tools: Organizational (static and process) mapping

3. Understanding the impacts of policy agenda Objective: examining the likely or actual impact of policy reform  at the meso and micro levels Social models are applied evaluating winners and losers understanding how different social groups act in the face of the events and how institutions impact on their lives, Tools: Analytical frameworks that provide a “theory of change” and employ concepts of opportunity structure, shocks, assets, entitlements, capabilities

Methods and data Objective: Employing a common set of questions on impacts, linked to the transmission channels Tools: A range of methods that generate both qualitative and quantitative data

4. Policy Analysis: Assessing uncertainties and risks to policy reform Objective: Assessing how confident we are that the predicted impacts will occur? Risk assessment: utilizing PSIA data and analysis to identify and map the risks to policy reform. Institutional risks, political economy, exogenous, and country risks

Scenario analysis help us choose the policy option that is most likely to result in our desired outcome (4 steps: Identify the counterfactual, Identify scenarios for policy reform, Analyze the impact of each scenario against the counterfactual, Compare and choose the preferred scenario)

Participatory poverty assessment/wealth ranking Develop farmers own criteria on poverty and well-being indicators Solicit farmers assessment of relative poverty levels of different households and determining factors Identify farmers priorities for improving their well-being

Community resource mapping