OrientationOrientation Storm-Based Warnings A Presentation for NOAA’s NWS Managers by Warning Decision Training Branch Storm-Based Warnings A Presentation for NOAA’s NWS Managers by Warning Decision Training Branch

Here is the Outline of the Orientation Section 1: Rationale of SBW Section 2: Overview of the SBW Training Section 3: Roles and Responsibilities Section 4: Timelines

County-Based Tornado Warnings 8 Counties under warning Almost 1 million people warned County-Based Tornado Warnings 8 Counties under warning Almost 1 million people warned More specific Increased clarity Supports new dissemination technology Section 1: Rationale of SBWs Three simultaneous tornadoes within line of severe thunderstorms Storm-Based Tornado Warnings 70% less area covered ~600,000 fewer people warned Storm-Based Tornado Warnings 70% less area covered ~600,000 fewer people warned

A Recent Example of SBW with Greater Precision and Lead Time Graphics provided by Ken Waters (PRH) Area (sq mi) Area (sq mi) Coffee County Geneva County Combined Counties Polygon % Reduction ! Storm-Based Warning for Enterprise, AL Tornado March 1, 2007

An Extreme Example of Falsely Alarmed Area Look at the size of the SVR in southern CALook at the size of the SVR in southern CA SBW will significantly reduce size of warned areaSBW will significantly reduce size of warned area

Delineation Improves FFWs

Graphic Dissemination of Storm-Based Warnings

Private Sector Use of Storm-Based Warnings Increases Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM Cow)

What are the Digital Dissemination Benefits of SBWs? Eye to the future of DEAS (Digital Emergency Alert System)Eye to the future of DEAS (Digital Emergency Alert System) Public can receive warning info on a variety of digital devicesPublic can receive warning info on a variety of digital devices –Computers –Phones –PDAs –TV –Satellite Radio

SBW Testing Already Underway 23 Offices tested SBW ‘0523 Offices tested SBW ‘05 Little change in PODLittle change in POD FAR 10% lowerFAR 10% lower

What’s New with the SBW Product? Area hatched is described by encoded polygon Direction of Motion added

Legacy Dissemination Technology is County BasedLegacy Dissemination Technology is County Based –TV –NOAA Weather Radio –EAS Activation (FCC) –Siren Systems (local jurisdictional based) Multiple Warnings in One CountyMultiple Warnings in One County –Easy To Differentiate Graphically; Hard to Describe Verbally –VTEC Event Tracking Number Uniquely Defines Multiple Warnings For Parsing Computer Programs Storm-Based Warning Challenges

How to convey uncertainties in Polygons for storm threat evolutionsHow to convey uncertainties in Polygons for storm threat evolutions –Deviant movement in supercells –Pulse storms –Flash flooding Storm-Based Warning Challenges (cont.)

Challenges for SB Warnings County Warning Area Boundaries St. Louis CWA Paducah CWA Lincoln CWA Madison Bond Clinton Fayette Marion St. Clair Washington Randolph Perry Jackson Franklin Jefferson Hamilton Williamson Saline Wayne Clay STL PAH ILX

Storm-Based Warnings Require New Set of Performance Measures Measure FY06FY07 (new) FY08FY09FY10FY11FY12FY13 Tornado Warning Accuracy (%) 7576 Tornado False Alarm Rate (%) 7875 Tornado Lead Time (min.) 13 Storm-Based Tornado Warning Accuracy (%) Storm-Based Tornado False Alarm Rate (%) Storm-Based Tornado Lead Time (min.) Government Performance Results Act (GPRA) Tornado Warning Performance Goals

Section 2: Overview of the SBW Training “To provide training to all warning forecasters on guidance of issuing effective Storm-Based Warnings”

Who Should Take the Training? Intended AudienceIntended Audience –NOAA/NWS Forecasters with Convective Weather Warning Responsibility Pre-requisitesPre-requisites –DLOC or WSR-88D Ops Course Graduate –Advanced Warning Operations Course (Core and Severe Tracks) DeliverablesDeliverables –2 hours of material on the LMS (and 1 hr of WES training ) –Printed materials with DVD

What are the Learning Activities? + Online Interactive Modules WES Job Sheets

Training Content Details Using Polygons to identify threat areas for multiple storm situationsUsing Polygons to identify threat areas for multiple storm situations –Isolated and multiple SBW TORs in close proximity –SBW TORs in lines –Flash flood SBWs (KS Turnpike Event)

Training Content Details (cont.) Polygon issuesPolygon issues – CWA boundaries – Gaps in warnings – WarnGen limits

What are Job Sheets? Effective learning applications using mini-WES casesEffective learning applications using mini-WES cases

Section 3: Roles and Responsibilities Traditional Assumption for Performance Improvement Training → Learning → Transfer = Performance

A New Focus on Performance: Combination of → Performance → Results Interventions

What were MIC Supports that Helped Learning and Performance? Supports Reported

What Can Management Do to Help SBWs Succeed? Ensure 100% training completion for every office Ensure 100% training completion for every office Work with User Community to prepare for Service Change Work with User Community to prepare for Service Change Support improved storm verification procedures Support improved storm verification procedures Require an annual warning skill performance assessment (using WES) Require an annual warning skill performance assessment (using WES)

Section 4: Timelines Storm-Based Warning Implementation Schedule F M A M J J A S O N D Forecasters Complete SBW Training Training Development 2007 Oct. 1 Service Change Pilot test of training package OB 8.1 Deploy New LMS released OB 8.1 Beta

Who Can Help? WDTB Administration (LMS problems, etc.)WDTB Administration (LMS problems, etc.) – (Linda Curtis) –WDTB help on SBW training OCWWS SBW PageOCWWS SBW Page wdtb.noaa.govwdtb.noaa.gov

Summary and Questions SBWs will provide an excellent opportunity for improvement in warning performanceSBWs will provide an excellent opportunity for improvement in warning performance But…But… Success Depends on All of Us!