Iran’s Missiles: Current and Future Implications for Europe Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology Consulting August Iran’s Missile: Current and Future Implications for Europe Uzi Rubin Based on open source material. Copyright Rubincon Ltd 12 th Space and Missile Defense Conference, Huntsville Alabama Iran ’ s armament policy. Highlights in Iran ’ s missile and space programs. Analysis of the recent EastWest Institute report on Iran ’ s missile capabilities. Conclusions.

Iran’s Missiles: Current and Future Implications for Europe Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology Consulting August Iran Army Day Parade April 2008

Iran’s Missiles: Current and Future Implications for Europe Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology Consulting August Iran Army Day Parade IAF Flyby

Iran’s Missiles: Current and Future Implications for Europe Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology Consulting August ? “Musudan/BM25 ”

Iran’s Missiles: Current and Future Implications for Europe Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology Consulting August From Unguided Rockets to PGM: The Fatah 110 Heavy Guided Rocket Iran ’ s Achievements in Missiles and Space

Iran’s Missiles: Current and Future Implications for Europe Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology Consulting August Iran ’ s Achievements in Missiles and Space Technology From 1300 Km Shahab 3 to 2000 Km Kadir 1 Shahab Kadir

Iran’s Missiles: Current and Future Implications for Europe Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology Consulting August Credit: Jane’s Missile Review Iran ’ s Achievements in Missiles and Space Technology From Land Mobility to Silo Basing

Iran’s Missiles: Current and Future Implications for Europe Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology Consulting August Iran ’ s Achievements in Missiles and Space Technology From Single Stage Ballistic Missiles to Multi Stage Space Launch Vehicles Kavoshgar test vehicle Safir Space Launch Vehicle

Iran’s Missiles: Current and Future Implications for Europe Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology Consulting August Iran ’ s Achievements in Missiles and Space Technology Iran’s SLV Achieves Earth Orbit, February 3 rd 2009

Iran’s Missiles: Current and Future Implications for Europe Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology Consulting August Novermber 2007: “Ashura” test announced by Iran’s MoD, no images released. November 18 th 2008: “Sejjil” test announced by Iran’s Mod, Images released and interviews granted. Declared range: “More than 2000 Km” Iran ’ s Achievements in Missiles and Space Technology From Scud Era Technology to Modern Solid Propellant Technology

Iran’s Missiles: Current and Future Implications for Europe Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology Consulting August The EastWest Institute Report of May “There is no reliable information at present on the state of Iran’s effort to develop solid propellant rocket motors and therefore no basis on which to make an assessment….” (3.3)

Iran’s Missiles: Current and Future Implications for Europe Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology Consulting August Key Claims On Iran ’ s Missile Program “ Iran does not have the infrastructure of research institutes, industrial plants or the scientists and engineers that are needed to make substantial improvement in the basic rocket components it used from the start ” (3.15) “ The major problems that have to be solved in building IRBM and ICBMs: a. The development of powerful rocket motors. b. Flight controls, guidance systems and telemetry. c. Reentry vehicle heat protection. d. Construction material. e. Flight testing. Each of these areas would pose major problems for Iran ” (3.20) "Iran does not now have a missile capable of delivering a 1000 Kg payload to a range of 2000 Km “ (3.21) Iran ’ s longer range missiles “ Will probably need a first stage consisting of a cluster of (liquid) rocket motors ” and hence “ large, visible, cumbersome.. fired from above ground, anchored to their launch sites and will take days to prepare for launch ” (3.22 and 3.23)

Iran’s Missiles: Current and Future Implications for Europe Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology Consulting August Sejil’s 3 rd Flight Test, May 20 th 2009 “ The missile will have a range of approximately 2000 to 2500 Km ” (Robert Gates, SecDef) “ The test involved a solid propellant system which apparently they developed on their own ” (Garry Saymor, NSC)

Iran’s Missiles: Current and Future Implications for Europe Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology Consulting August First Stage: ton (12,5 tons of propellant) Second Stage: 5.78 ton ( 4,9 tons of propellant) Warhead: 1.0 ton Take off weight: 21.5 ton (Credit: Dr. T. Postol, Addendum to the EWI report) US 1 st generation solid propellant ballistic missiles: Polaris A1: 14.5 ton Minuteman I: 33.0 ton 1.25 m Estimated Dimensions and Weights of Sejjil

Iran’s Missiles: Current and Future Implications for Europe Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology Consulting August Months12 Months6 Mnths May 2005: Iran ’ s MoD announces the successful development of two large solid propellant motors November 2007: 1 st flight test of two stage solid propellant missile (Failure) November 2008: 2 st flight test (Failure) May 2009: 3 st flight test (Success) Pace of Development: Solid Propellant Missile

Iran’s Missiles: Current and Future Implications for Europe Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology Consulting August Months6 Mnths Pace of Development: Space Launch Vehicle 6 Mnths July 2005: Iran MoD announce a forthcoming satellite launch “ Within one year from green light ” February 2008: Unveiling of “ Safir ” SLV, Launch of “ Kavoshgar ” vehicle (Failed in 1 st stage) August 2008: 1 st Launch of “ Safir ” SLV (Failed in 2 nd stage) February 2009: 2 nd Launch of “ Safir ” SLV (Success)

Iran’s Missiles: Current and Future Implications for Europe Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology Consulting August Assessing Iran ’ s Current Proficiency The development of powerful rocket motors: Demonstrated existence of infrastructure and skilled human resources to develop manufacture and test 10+ ton composite solid propellant rocket motors. Flight controls, guidance systems and telemetry: Demonstrated capability to guide, control and successfully launch an indigenous SLV to earth orbit. Reentry vehicle heat protection: Demonstrated capability of RV heat shielding both for Kadir 1 and Sajeel. Construction material: None seem to be lacking, MTCR notwithstanding. Flight testing: completed 6 major flight tests in 18 months (!) Impressive recovery from flight test malfunctions – evidence of ample telemetry, competent system engineering and energetic program management.

Iran’s Missiles: Current and Future Implications for Europe Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology Consulting August Large Propellant Mixers Fluid Energy MillsVacuum Casting Pits High Power X Ray Inspection SystemsThrust Stands Essential infrastructure for Developing, Manufacturing and Testing of Large Solid Propellant Motors (MTCR Controlled)

Iran’s Missiles: Current and Future Implications for Europe Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology Consulting August Growing proficiency in Solid Propulsion

Iran’s Missiles: Current and Future Implications for Europe Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology Consulting August Technical Addendum to the EWI Report, May

Iran’s Missiles: Current and Future Implications for Europe Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology Consulting August Key Claims in the Technical Addendum “ The May 19 th report did not provide analysis of Iranian solid propellant missiles … (because) the available data was insufficient for serious analysis. ” “ On May 20 th Iran successfully tested a solid propellant missile … (which) makes it possible to provide detailed assessment.. ” “ The Sejjil should be able to carry a one ton warhead to a range of about 2200 Km. ” To threaten Northern and Western Europe, Iran will need a 5000 Km missile with 1 ton warhead. Such a missile will require a first stage of 45 tons and will have a take off weight of 65 tons or more. “ The weight of US Minuteman III and Russia ’ s SS 27 is about 35 ton ”. The large weight of the postulated Iranian IRBM will prevent it from being mobile. The Sejjil technologies could not rapidly evolve into ballistic missiles with ranges that could threaten Europe of the continental United States. The recent Sejjil test does not alter any of the EWI report ’ s main conclusions.

Iran’s Missiles: Current and Future Implications for Europe Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology Consulting August Estimated Dimensions and Weights of 5000 Km “ Super Sejjil ” First Stage: ton Second Stage: ton Third Stage: 5,78 ton Warhead: 1,0 ton Take off weight: 66.5 ton (Source: Dr. T. Postol, Addendum to the EWI report)

Iran’s Missiles: Current and Future Implications for Europe Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology Consulting August Assessing Iran ’ s True Capabilities Computations using the EWI Addendum figures for the Sejjil dimensions, weights and ISP figures yield a maximum range of 2500 Km. This result was independently derived by US and Israeli teams. Accordingly, Iran has already achieved the capability to target to 6 EU/ NATO member states

Iran’s Missiles: Current and Future Implications for Europe Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology Consulting August Assessing Iran ’ s Potential Capabilities Using the EWI estimated ISP and Mass Fractions of Sejjil, two independent teams in the US and Israel calculated a significantly smaller 5000 Km “ Super Sejjil ” First Stage: ton Third Stage: 5,78 ton Warhead: 1,0 ton Take off weight: 38.61ton (Credit: D. Wilkening, CISAC, Stanford U) This missile will be 9 tons lighter than Russia ’ s fully mobile, 47.2 ton SS27 Topol M

Iran’s Missiles: Current and Future Implications for Europe Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology Consulting August Relevant Ranges for Europe Threatening Missiles

Iran’s Missiles: Current and Future Implications for Europe Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology Consulting August Relevant Ranges for Europe Threatening Missiles

Iran’s Missiles: Current and Future Implications for Europe Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology Consulting August Conclusions 1. Iran is vigorously pursuing several missile and space programs at an almost feverish pace with impressive achievement. 2. In spite of the MTCR and in the face of sanctions, Iran has succeeded to acquire the needed infrastructure and to raise a cadre of proficient scientists and engineers backed by academy and research institutes. 3. The solid propellant Sejjil signifies a breakthrough. This missile is already a threat to a meaningful number of European Union countries. 4. Based on its demonstrated achievements in solid propulsion and staging, Iran will face no significant hurdle in upscaling the Sejjil into a compact, survivable IRBM. A range of 3600 km will be sufficient to put most of the EU under threat. 5. The EWI report estimates that it will take Iran six years to fit a nuclear warhead to a missile. If true, the time to start deploying missile defense in Europe is now.