Paul Holper, CSIRO Marine & Atmospheric Research, Australia Neil Plummer, Bureau of Meteorology, Australia ACRE Workshop, Zurich, June 2008 CAWCR web portal & climate scenarios

Outline Australia’s climate New climate change projections for Australia Climate data processing & delivery – Climate Projections Online Climatic data requirements

CSIRO, CAWCR CSIRO + BoM = CAWCR Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research ~250 researchers Weather and Environment Prediction Atmosphere-Land Observation and Assessment Ocean Prediction ACCESS Seasonal Prediction Climate Change Ocean Observation and Assessment

Australia: What is our climate? Grappling with a changing climate and the impacts of a 10-year dry spell in the south- east Past climate is no guide to that of the future ‘The future will be like living in a different country’

Observed annual rainfall changes

May 2008 rainfall deciles May 2008 was Australia’s driest May on record

Areas in red set all-time records in March 2008 for most consecutive days above 35°C 15 consecutive days at Adelaide – previous record 8 Source: Dr Blair Trewin, Bureau of Meteorology Record runs of consecutive hot days

Source: Dr Warwick Grace Adelaide hot spells 4 days >35ºC = 1/year 7 days >35ºC = 1/10 years 8 days >35ºC = 1/20 years 15 days >35ºC = 1/3000 years

Climate Change in Australia Most comprehensive projections delivered in Australia Prepared by CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology Probabilistic State by State Climate variables: temperature change, rainfall, relative humidity, solar radiation, sea surface temperature, wind speed, potential evapotranspiration Years: 2030, 2050, 2070 Percentiles: 10 th, 50 th and 90 th Seasons + annual

Chance of at least 1, 2, 3 or 4°C warming

Growing attention to climate change ‘Global warming was … a strong vote-changer.’ Massive, and growing, demand for climatic data 44,000+ unique visitors to CCIA website since launch (3 Oct. 2007)

Climate Projections Online Current system Users obtain data from various sources and commission supply of projection data Solution Climate Projections Online ‘One stop shop’ for historical data and projections Promises a more consistent, streamlined approach Integrated historical and future climate information to improve understanding and to better manage climate risks The past is no longer a good guide to the future

Integration of historical climate data with projection information Needed to produce realistic data required for many applications – model output is not sufficient Needed because without allowing for climate change the historical record is becoming less relevant for its traditional uses Allows climate change information delivery to build upon existing delivery mechanisms (e.g. National Climate Centre services) Needed to put climate change in the context of natural variability. Allow for climate-change-induced drift. Many stakeholders want guidance on climate variations over the next 10 years. Some farmers are demanding this due to concerns over viability and succession of their farms. Allows future climate change to be related to an observed baseline familiar to the user (e.g. ‘How will the 2030s compare to the 1990s?’)

Sample obs PDF for natural variability 2050 climate projection rainfall Currently rainfall PDF for natural variability and model greenhouse signal uncertainty We need Integration of historical climate data with projection information

Specific applications Over the next years what are the… Likely changes to temperature regimes? Likely changes in the nature and frequency of severe rainfall deficiencies? The likely effect of projected climate changes on integrated measures of drought? How are past exceptional climatic events placed in the context of the likely frequency and severity of future climatic events? Government is reviewing ‘Drought Exceptional Circumstances’ funding as ‘exceptional’ events may become less so in future. What is the information farmers and farm businesses need to understand their climatic situation and comment on appropriate tools to provide such information?

Climate Projections Online: Data provision Climate Change In Australia report Climate provider activityUser activity Climate change research Understanding regional climate change How to do projections Knowledge of user needs GCM data Climate modelling Historical climate data e.g. BOM, SILO general purpose use I&A applications Datasets for impact assessment, e.g. times series Applying projection methodology Website enhancements Enhanced Climate Change In Australia website GCM data Enhanced historical climate database I&A applications Increased demand met Simpler, quicker and cheaper for users More consistency across studies Automation methods research Integrated database & website development Climate Projections Online Automated creation of datasets and information services for impact assessments e.g. time series

Outcomes of Climate Projections Online Improves decision-making access to better and more relevant information on climate change Reduced duplication in the construction of climate projections reduced risk of clients using substandard information Greater public exposure and acceptance of climate change information Increase overall research activity due to lowering ‘barriers for entry’ for researchers Improved understanding of both climate variability and climate change by users Easier for users to access climate data Support of policy making: local, state and national

Climatic data requirements Need to seamlessly link historical data to projections We project lower rainfall in future, but it may actually be greater than now! Need data rehabilitation and rescue; need to digitise paper records No really good Australian datasets that are internally consistent We have high-quality rainfall data (1900-), high-quality temperature data (1910-); but don’t have surface pressure, winds or other tropospheric fields. Reanalysis data will be valuable – internally consistent, baseline data.

Conclusions Astonishing increase in interest in climate change Australia is in the grips of climate change Great demand in Australia for readily accessible information and tools New climate change projections: Climate Projections Online proposed to integrate historical and future climate information to improve understanding and to better manage climate risks Strong need for internally consistent, comprehensive climatic data

Contact Us Phone: or Web: Thank you Paul Holper CSIRO Marine & Atmospheric Research