Earth System Science Mike Raupach (EOC), Damian Barrett (CPI), Ian Enting (CAR), John Finnigan (CSS), Mac Kirby (CLW), Chris Moran (HCFP), Peter Rayner (CAR) CSIRO Climate Program Meeting, Melbourne, 4-6 August 2003

2 Outline u Definitions and questions Earth System Science u Sample issues and approaches: 1: Global change and climate vulnerability 2: Greenhouse mitigation 3: Water benefits in Australia 4: Resilience in socio-ecological systems u Goals and possible structures for an ESS initiative

3 Definitions of Earth System Science 1.Earth science (fluid and solid earth sciences) 2.Extended climate science (CC++) atmosphere and ocean plus … hydrosphere, biosphere, biogeochemistry, ecology … Oriented to extending climate models to the next generation, and providing the observations needed to constrain them 3.The science of the integrated earth system The interactions between the biophysical and human parts of the Earth Draws from biophysical sciences, ecology, social sciences, economics Uses concepts and tools of complex system science (CSS): self-organisation, hierarchy, emergence, adaptation, … 4.Sustainability Science: the science of the integrated earth system, applied to sustainable development Earth System Science Advanced Climate Science and Earth Observation

4 Questions for Earth System Science u in the style of the IGBP-GAIM "23 Hilbertian Questions" u Advanced climate science What dynamics drove paleoclimates and glacial cycles? (Vostok record) What are the risks of major climate vulnerabilities over the next century? u associated with thresholds, jumps in climate state, … u thermohaline circulation, soil C pools, methane, carbon-water feedbacks, … u Integrated earth system science: physical-ecological-human systems What dynamics govern their states and transitions, and lead to properties such as emergence, self-organisation, modularity, hierarchy, phasing? How can we understand and guide such systems? What is the right mix of technological and institutional emphases to achieve effective guidance?

5 Sample ESS issues and approaches 1:Global change and climate vulnerability u IPCC, GCP, …

6 GCP 2001 IPCC 2001 Global Change Atmospheric CO 2 and associated warming

7 Sample ESS issues and approaches 2:Greenhouse mitigation u Raupach, M.R., Canadell, J.G., Bakker, D., Ciais, P., José Sanz, M., Fang, J.Y., Melillo, J., Romero, P., Sathaye, J., Schulze, E.-D., Smith, P. and Tschirley, J. Interactions between CO2 stabilisation pathways and requirements for a sustainable earth system. In: Toward CO2 Stabilization: Issues, Strategies, Consequences. (Eds: Field, C.B. and Raupach, M.R.). Island Press.

8 CO 2 stabilisation pathways and direct human-induced emissions u Direct-human-induced CO2 emissions Case 1 = "Business as usual" (IS92A) Case 2 = Case 1 with major CO2 sequestration and disposal Case 3 = Case 2 with major energy conservation and use of non-fossil-fuel energy "Business as usual" (IS92A) Add major sequestration and disposal Also add major conservation and non- fossil-fuel energy

9 Climate, economic, environmental and socio-cultural impacts associated with mitigation strategies

10 Trajectories of the coupled carbon-climate-human system as emergent properties u u k = uptake proportion of mitigation technology k (as fraction of technical potential) u Consider a total utility of mitigation (U), including benefits and costs in the areas of climate, economics, society-culture, and environment: u Maximise U subject to constraints (supply = demand for energy, food, land, water) u Uptake proportions become control variables in a constrained optimisation problem u w Clim, w Econ, w Soc, w Env are weights expressing "societal choices" [economic, environmental, socio-cultural and policy priorities emerging from societal institutions and structures]. These are key "levers" influencing future trajectories of the carbon- climate-human system. Climate utility Economic utility Socio-cultural utility Environmental utility

11 Sample ESS issues and approaches 3:Water benefits in Australia u Chris Moran, Mac Kirby and Healthy Country Team

River Aris A River Somewhere

13 A framework for water benefits accounting Chris Moran, Healthy Country (adapted by MRR) Management decisions External drivers (climate, terms of trade) Changes in water use Changes in water benefits Changes in water quantity, quality Changes in water amenity (material budgets …) Water benefits accounting WATER USE AND BENEFIT CYCLE DECISION CYCLE EXTERNALITIES Institutional frameworks

14 Sample ESS issues and approaches 4:Resilience, adaptive capacity and transformative capacity in socio-ecologiocal systems u Brian Walker and colleagues (overheads selected from a seminar on "Sustainable Development: Managing for resilience in socio-ecological systems" by Brian Walker, CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems, Thursday 31 July 2003)

The Market Climate

16 Resilience analysis in social-ecological systems (Walker et al, Resilience management in social-ecological systems: A working hypothesis for a participatory approach. Conservation Ecology 6(1)) Building resilience, adaptive capacity and transformative capacity in social-ecological systems: a participatory approach

17 Outline u Definitions and questions Earth System Science u Sample issues and approaches: 1: Global change and climate vulnerability 2: Greenhouse mitigation 3: Water benefits in Australia 4: Resilience in socio-ecological systems u Goals and possible structures for an ESS initiative

18 Earth System Science in CSIRO: who is involved u Climate science is part of Earth System Science, not the other way round u Several groups in CSIRO are working on issues or tools relevant to Earth System Science u Increasingly they recognise a common conceptual framework u Task is to locate this intersection and utilise the energy there Climate Healthy Country Energy Transformed CSS, SEI

19 Three Big Goals for Earth System Science A.Advanced Climate Science Development: extend the Australian climate model to include hydrosphere, biosphere, biogeochemistry, ecology …; use novel observation and model-data synthesis methods to parameterise the resulting model system; use this system to study climate impacts, risks and vulnerabilities in the Australian region B.Earth System Model Development: Develop Australian earth system models to explore integrated earth system science questions for the Australian environment C. Earth System Concept Development: Introduce scientific awareness of the connectedness of the earth system into the Australian popular and political consciousness, and have it inform national identity and decision-making

20 Models for an Earth System Science initiative u Model 1: Structured conversations Working Group (like the BWG) to provide a forum for conversations Problems: lack of resource, commitment u Model 2: Institution A full ESS structure, say an ESS Emerging Science Area Problems: significant overlap with CSS and SEI; proliferation of structures u Model 3: Focus on initiatives A: ESS contributions to Advanced Climate Science B: Australian ESS Model Stream (in Complex System Science?) C: ESS Thinktank »Series of ~5 day workshops (several over 3 years) »Participants to be wider than CSIRO »Product: a concept-transforming book and website (living book)

21 Fitting into the programmatic world u CSIRO Climate Impacts and Adaptation Mitigation Climate Modelling Earth Observation u Healthy Country u Complex System Science u Socio-Economic Integration u External Partners Advanced climate science u Hydro, bio, BGC, ecol, … u Model-data synthesis u Implications for climate risks and vulnerabilities u … Oz ESS Models u Shell u Dynamics u Agent-based u … Oz ESS Thinktank u Ideas …