ET2050 Baseline 2030

Project Specification Approach

Complementary approaches to define Scenarios Speculative Narratives as starting point to Explore distant Futures. Narratives use to be Normative Scenarios, or Visions (Desired Scenarios). The consistency (as well as likelyhood) of Speculative Narratives can be analysed typically by backcast modelling. It is mostly a policy-based approach. Present Situation and Predictions, as starting point to define Predictive Scenarios, or possible futures. It is mostly a quantitative,scientific-based approach, using forecast modelling tools.

A Baseline is a projection of current trends in absence of neither new policies nor unexpected events. A Baseline should strive to generate consensus, to be a useful reference for all. A Baseline is realistic but not necessarily the most likely future A Baseline will not likely comply with most official political targets A Baseline is not the “Worse-case” Scenario. What’s a Baseline scenario?

Baseline definition Present Situtation as starting point No significant change in Policies (Limited Adjustments) Framework Conditions as a consensus

Baseline Key Directions to 2050 Ageing Population: 540 Minh (>65 from 16% to 27%, stable migration 1,5 M/year) Relative Economic Decline: €24.000billion (from 2,3% growth to 1,4%) Growing inequities: 10% with higher GDP/capita captures more GDP growth Insufficient Technologic Innovation : R&D budget around 2% of GDP More diversified energy sources : 26% RES ( Oil price from € 67 / barrel to € 138 ) Climate Change: 35% GHG reduction since 1990 (80% reduction target in force) Subverted proximities: Bpaxkm within EU (0,7%), Btnkm (1,6%) Gateways Increasing Urbanisation: 90% urban pop. (50 cities>1 Minh), periurbanisation Towards a Multiple-Speed Europe : limited territorial governance structures, EU 1% Limited public expenditure ( 50% 2010, 40% 2050), Public Debt (70% to 50%) Not significant progress in relation to the Territorial Agenda main goals

Key Assumptions of Baseline Total population (Eurostat EUROPOP 2010) Migrations (ECFIN Ageing Report 2012)

GDP (ECFIN Ageing Report 2012) Oil price (US EIA, AEO2012 Reference case) Key Assumptions of Baseline

World Reference for Baseline Population: M (Europe from 15% in 1950 to 7% today and 6% in 2050) Urban population: 69% (Europe 89% in 2050) GDP: € billion (Europe from 39% in 1950 to 30% today and 18% in 2050) Trade: € billion (Europe from 17% in 1950 to 15% today and 9% in 2050) Maritime transport: € billion ton·km (average 3,7% annual growth, EU 2%) Air transport: € billion RPK (average 5,0% annual growth, EU 3,5%) Tourism: million visitors (Europe from 90% in 1950, 45% today and 27% 2050) Energy Consumption: MTOE (Europe 28% in 1950, 17% today, 9% in 2050) CO2 emissions: Mton (Europe from 18% in 1950, 15% today, and 5% in 2050)

Baseline Reference World Indicators Overall role of Europe (Europe share of the World)

Promotion of MEGAs Promotion of FUAs Promotion of SM Towns Worse-Case: Fragmented Europe Forecast exercise by MULTIPOLES, MASST, MOSAIC, METRONOMICA and SASI models Present Situation as starting point Policies oriented to promote alternative spatial structures Framework Conditions as Baseline Analysis of “Scenario Variants” (e.g. Worse-Case Scenario)

ET2050 Expectations for Scenarios – Key Directions (DRAFT) (Associated Spatial Development Patterns) Promotion of MEGAsPromotion of FUAsPromotion of SM Towns

Backcast exercise by Foresight modelling tools Speculative Narratives as starting point Policies oriented to promote alternative spatial structures Framework Conditions different than Baseline World Framework Conditions introduced Analysis of “Wild Cards”

ET2050 Draft Scenarios (trend expectations per scenario, as an example)

From the Project Specifications: The VISION should provide a coherent framework to formulate territorial policy actions at different policymaking levels and to assess and support policy initiatives from other sectors, all with a European perspective. The VISION is expected to have a strategic character that allows giving direction to the policy debate on territorial development. This project aims at supporting policymakers in formulating this long-term integrated and coherent vision on the development of the European territory A VISION is a dream of a future “ideal Europe” The VISION for 2050

The European Territorial VISION could include three components: 1.A set of commonly agreed general territorial objectives and principles, with quantified goals. 2.A series of (non ‐ binding) policy and governance recommendations likely to make the realisation of the VISION possible 3.A series of schematic maps of the European territory displaying strategic, structuring elements The VISION for 2050

ET2050 Baseline 2030