The Future of Waste Management “Matrix Reloaded” Antonis Mavropoulos CEO D-Waste

Current SWM 2050 forecast Reshaping the future Contents

1. Current waste management MSW between 1,6-2 billion tons/year Population & GDP/cap growth  much more waste Source: Veolia, Cyclope (2009) From waste to resource: an abstract of world waste survey 2009, Paris. [Available:

70% to dumpsites & landfills 19% recycled or recovered 11% energy recovery 40 million people industry – around 50% ISR billion tons (30%) of uncollected MSW/year Current SWM

Urbanization is 30% faster than sanitation Source: WHO & UNICEF (2010) Progress on Sanitation & Drinking Water: 2010 Update, France. Available:

How many people without waste management ? What means “access to waste management services”? Recent estimations : almost 52% of the global population More than 3,6 billion in 2008 or everyone who lives with GNI less than $ / year Source:

forecast Population growth almost by 50% (baseline 2006), until 2050

Economy growth Global GDP growth almost by 320%, until 2050

Cities growth Source: Urban World: Mapping the Economic Power of Cities, Mc Kinsey, March 2011

Rough estimates (BaU) Source: D-waste “Waste Management for everyone”, update 1 (to be published on September))

Source: D-waste, “Waste Management for everyone”, update 1 (to be published on September)

Uncertainties management Source: D-waste, “Waste Management for everyone”, update 1 (to be published on September)

Urbanization – sanitation gap

It is an elementary component of health protection It is a key – issue of environmental quality It is a corner-stone of governance It affects directly the daily life It creates important social and economic impacts We can’t afford going like this…

WASTE MANAGEMENT AS A HUMAN RIGHT Sound Waste Management is a human right. It is not a privilege. It must not be depended on personal income, race, gender or national discriminations. It must be easily accessible, affordable and suitable to local conditions. We need…

3. Rethinking urban SWM Focus on Global Cities Interface of their countries with global economy & culture Parts of the resource management global network “Arrival” cities They are Global Risk Areas due to their: – High population density - pandemics – High integration and interconnection with the rest of the world – High vulnerability to natural disasters

Systems far from equilibrium Drivers of spatial growth: randomness, physical constraints, natural advantage, comparative advantage Spatial growth is not predictable There are physical & managerial limits Growth can be simulated using epidemics or diffusion models Global Cities operate in three rather than two dimensions Infrastructure comes always late

We need new descriptions INPUT & OUTPUT Complex systems, out of equilibrium Patchworks: the kingdom of non- uniformity SWM as a Human Right is the canvas required to address urban SWM

WE CAN’T AFFORD WAITING FOR THE INFRASTRUCTURE – WE NEED CHANGE NOW. WE NEED TO MANAGE THE HUMAN NETWORK OF WASTE PRODUCERS AND GUARANTEE THE RIGHT TO SOUND WASTE MANAGEMENT FOR EVERYONE We need behavioral change through better interaction, we need to develop local dynamics and neighborhood management, we need new interactive tools and practices and minimum standards

1.Adding to current systems modern technology and interconnectivity’s potential 2.Advancing current systems by stimulating behavioral change through human agents 3.Both ways combined Stimulating Change

Welcome to the Interconnected World

A new landscape

Photos and location service Software to manage the data Zoning Algorithms to provide conclusions 100 days results Mobile governance to improve SWM

Big Data systems: atlas.d-waste.com

Global SWM mapping

Open source cooperative design Client request Experts’ response Product design

Bottom – up approach: develop local material supply chains that contribute to recycling and recovery Adaptiveness: provide local solutions adapted to city’s patchwork based on market dynamics Interconnections: improve systemic behavior allowing information flow within their network Feedback: create a unique picture of city’s waste management Stimulating behavioral change

ISR are delivering recycling and waste management activities in order to fulfill their elementary human rights In that view, ISR are the key-link to introduce Waste Management as a Human Right In many cases the only immediately available option is to improve ISR contribution and performance ISR as the key-link

The current 3.5 bn people without elementary waste management will be definitely much more in the near future The BaU scenario will create huge health and environmental impacts that sooner or later will have global dimensions We need massive collaboration to overcome the technology and poverty barriers We need new business models to utilize the modern technologies and the increasing interconnectivity Instead of conclusions

THE OTHER SIDE OF CITIES The future is here…