Stanley Securities September 23, 2010
Introduction David Lin, Investment Grade Credit Research Shengbiao Luo, Credit Hybrids Sales Casey Wang, Market Risk Management George Wang, Credit Hybrids Trading Peilin Zhang, Quantitative Credit Strategies
The Objective Offer counterparty default protection against deep in the money FX Forward: Counterparty: UJB Financial Notional: 500MM EUR Time to maturity: 3 years Contractual forward price: $1.024/EUR Spot USD/EUR rate: $1.22/EUR Current Exposure: $98MM Need protection against UJB’s gradual financial distress
The Solution Rating Contingent Credit Default Swap (RCCDS) Credit protection contingent on rating downgrade Notional of default payoff contingent on mark to market value of FX forward Significant reduction in protection cost
Payoff Scenario
Term Sheet Protection Seller: Stanley Securities Protection Buyer: Rauxon Energy Co. Trade Date: 10/1/2010 Expiration Date: 9/30/2013 Reference Entity: UJB Financial Seller Pays: Payoff: (FX Forward Market Value) + × (1 – Recovery) Credit Event: Downgrade, followed by failure to pay Settlement: Cash (USD) Buyer pays: 11 bps on $500MM notional Standardized quarterly schedule
Deal Comparison Notional ($MM) Protection PV ($MM) Upfront price points Running Spread (bps) CDS (40% recovery) CDS (25% recovery) CDS (25% recovery on current FX forward MV) Full protection on expected FX forward MV RCCDS % reduction in premium compared with full protection
Cash flows Risk Leg Premium Leg Time UJB downgrades
Suitability and Limitations No protection against out of blue default (client specifically asks for) May need to remake the FX Forward trade $500,000 to your bottom line