ATS/ESS 452: Synoptic Meteorology Course Overview & Logistics Wed – 20 Aug 2014

Introductions…

Office:NSSTC 3088 Phone: (office phone) Office Hours: MWF:8:00am – 9:00am, 10:15am – 11:00am T,Th:8:00am – 9:00am, 1:00pm – 2:00pm Class Schedule: 9:10 – 10:05am Monday, Wednesday & Friday Monday & Wednesday – Mostly lecture, current weather discussion Fridays – “Lab” period, current weather discussion, some lecture

What is Synoptic Meteorology? Definition: Synoptic meteorology is the study of the structure and evolution of weather systems on spatial scales of order km Synoptic means “view together” or “view at a common point.” In this course, you’ll learn to view different parameters of the atmosphere together in order to examine/analyze the weather. What do YOU expect to get out of this course? This course will help you to begin thinking like a meteorologist. BUT…this is not a weather forecasting course…instead you’ll begin to learn how the weather “works.”

Educational Goals By the end of this course, hopefully, you will be proficient in: Meteorological analysis of weather patterns Meteorological interpretation of atmospheric processes on weather maps based on application of dynamic and thermodynamic theory Projecting future trends of common atmospheric variables from an accurate continuity and analysis diagnosis Verbal and written communication of weather patterns, processes, and forecasts based on solid meteorological reasoning Time management skills (hopefully you are already proficient in this!)

Example – Synoptic Scale Chart What are some important features this analysis shows us?

Materials Required Textbook: Midlatitude Synoptic Meteorology: Dynamics, Analysis and Forecasting by Gary Lackmann Other Books:Weather Analysis by Djuric An Introduction to Dynamic Meteorology by Holton Atmospheric Science by Wallace & Hobbs Other Materials: Pencils, colored pencils, markers and a ruler  Have these items by next Friday! Numerous materials will also be handed out, ed to you, or posted online during the semester. It is recommended you acquire a binder to keep track and stay organized! Lecture will be given through a combo of PowerPoint presentations and board notes. Notes will typically be posted to the web just prior to class (hopefully!)

Grading Standard grading scale will be used A: B: 80-89C: 70-79D: 60-69F: ≤ 59 Grading will be determined as follows: Exam 115% Exam 215% Final Exam20% Wx Briefings/Map Discussions20% Homework/Labs/Analyses20% Quizzes/Participation10% 100% We will have weekly to bi-weekly quizzes. Quizzes will cover mostly reading assignments and some previously covered lecture material.

Friday “Lab” This is only a 3 credit hour course, without a designated lab period Decided to sacrifice some lecture on Friday to have a lab –Difficult to perform some tasks in a synoptic course without a lab –This doesn’t mean we’ll never have lecture on a Friday though! Hands on instruction and assignments will be provided during lab periods These assignments/topics will not always relate to what we are doing in class –Build a foundation to help you analyze the weather This is when you’ll typically use the colored pencils, etc… bring these and the other items with you every Friday Lab assignments are always due by the next class period unless otherwise stated!!

Assignments **Lab assignments are always due the next class period (usually Monday), unless otherwise stated **Actual homework assignments are due one week from the date they are handed out, unless otherwise stated **Any assignment turned in late are subject to a 10% deduction in grade per day late

Forecast “Contest” Begins after the mid-term Graded forecast “contest” where you will forecast common meteorological variables for a predetermined location 3 times a week (i.e., each class period) Develop short-range (12, 24, and 36 hr) forecast based on the 12Z run of the GFS You are competing against the GFS MOS, where the MOS score is always set to 75% Your goal is to beat MOS, otherwise, what’s the point in human forecasting and thus, jobs at the NWS? You will forecast for a different location each week, known as the “forecast city” Grading information can be found at the end of the syllabus Forecast forms are due every class day by 5pm LST and you are required to submit your forecast digitally (i.e., via in the spreadsheet provided)

What is MOS? Model Output Statistics Technique used to objectively interpret numerical model output and produce site-specific guidance

Student Skill Score Performance Quotes from Dr. Keith Blackwell (Univ. South AL Synoptic Professor) Below 70%Below Average (“Student is either illiterate, unconscious, or has no brain-wave activity; student may be forecasting with a weather rock or flipping a coin.”) 70-<80%Average Weather Person (“Student can read, is alive and breathing, and is subconsciously going through the motions of filling out the forecast form.”) 80-<90%Skilled Forecaster/Meteorologist “capable of adding significant value to forecasts.” 90% or aboveTop-Notch Professional Forecaster/Meteorologist “capable of reliable, expert performance in tough weather situations.” Total points possible will fluctuate day to day, depending on the accuracy of the model in different forecast situations. Generally, GFS MOS will perform worse on active weather days and better on inactive weather days. Model error points will be largest on active weather days; therefore, the total points possible on these days will be larger Students who blindly follow the forecast guidance will be doing “C” work (75% of possible points). No critical thinking or meteorological expertise is required when a student makes the model forecast their own.

Weather Briefings Each of you will give THREE minute weather briefings/map discussions, beginning the second half of the course (i.e., after mid-term) 5-10 minute question/answer session and discussion will be conducted after the briefing between the briefer, instructor, and the remainder of the class… if you are NOT briefing, you are expected to participate These discussions will give you the opportunity to show what you know about the weather and will go hand in hand with the scientific concepts you have learned in class Briefings are 20% of your grade (1 st briefing = 5%; 2 nd briefing = 15%) By the time of your 2 nd briefing, you should be able to give an intelligent discussion about the current weather and make a reasonable, well thought out, forecast for a given location. More details will be given later

Course Objectives Understand conceptual models and atmospheric processes as applied to synoptic-scale weather systems –Conceptual understanding of quasi-geostrophic theory as applied to midlatitude atmosphere –Solid understanding of physical processes important to synoptic-scale phenomena (jet streams, midlatitude cyclones, fronts, Rossby waves, etc.) –Conceptual understanding of the ageostrophic wind equation as applied to midlatitude atmosphere

Course Objectives Develop weather analysis skills –Be able to construct and defend a respectable manual surface or upper-air map analysis given a set of meteorological observations –Produce and defend a well-reasoned weather forecast –Understand importance of observational analysis, and numerical and conceptual models in weather analysis and forecasting

Quick Map Introduction & What’s Down the Road

What is this? What type of map is this? What important information is shown? Notice how the winds flow with respect to the isoheights.

What happened here?

Heavy rain is forecasted for the TN Valley Relate the location of the upper-level low and it’s associated vorticity to our forecast. Much more goes into making a local forecast, but what’s happening at 500 mb can tell you a lot and is very important on the synoptic scale!

Corresponding 60-hour 300mb forecast chart. What does this chart show? The information on this chart (jet level dynamics) will later be important for the ageostrophic wind equation. In general, lift/vertical motion is enhanced in the right-rear and left-front quadrants of jets Notice in this case, the upper-level low is vertically stacked. This isn’t always the case, and in fact, is not good for a developing cyclone. Want to see a westward tilt with height for a developing cyclone – more on this later

Later forecast… the previous shortwave that was affecting us is forecasted to move into New England Highly amplified trough pattern has developed over the mid-US Check out the air pouring out of Canada  POLAR air mass What do would you expect after the trough passes the TN Valley?

Now… notice how there is a westward tilt with height of the cyclone Also, very strong cold air advection.

500 mb forecast Without knowing anything else, what would you expect the forecast to say in Huntsville Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 50

Let’s Check Out The Current Forecast NCEP - Model Analysis and Guidance Huntsville Forecast - NWS