Deterrence Theory Rational Choice Theory Routine Activities Theory The Rational Offender Deterrence Theory Rational Choice Theory Routine Activities Theory

Social Context Classical School Criminology (1750s) Bentham, Beccaria as “utilitarian philosophers” Articulated a “general theory” of human behavior Rebirth of Deterrence Social Context of U.S. in the 1970s Murray, Martinson, Economists

Base Assumptions about Humans 1. Rational (cost/benefit) 2. Hedonistic 3. Human behavior can be controlled through certain, swift, severe punishment

Additional Baggage (assumptions) General theory (explains all crime) Equally feel pain Equally judge opportunity, pleasure

Deterrence Theory Criminal behavior (or crime rates) vary directly with _______ of FORMAL punishment. Certainty Severity Swiftness MICRO or MACRO? Specific or General

Marginal versus Absolute Absolute deterrence: the existence of formal punishment reduces crime Marginal: increases in existing formal punishment reduces crime further

General Deterrence (Macro) What should reduce crime rates? Evidence: Severity of Punishment Death Penalty Research Certainty of Punishment Experiments in Certainty (KC patrol) Swiftness of Punishment?

General Deterrence Micro Level An individuals perceptions of _______ influence their decision to commit crimes. “Perceptual Deterrence” Criticism of “objective” = do people really know the clearance rate? Better: what do you think the clearance rate is?

Perceptual Deterrence Research Initial cross sectional studies: Perceived risk, severity SR crime But, what is the causal order?? Deterrence vs. “Experiential” effect Manipulation of Perceived Risk Scared Straight

Specific Deterrence A person who commits a crime and is punished is less likely to commit additional crimes. Swift, Certain, Severe (Marginal) How test these propositions?

Testing Specific Deterrence Prison vs. Probation? Perhaps, “time in prison” or “type of prison” More realistically Probation vs. Intensive Probation Probation vs. Boot Camp

Deterrence Review: Deals only with formal legal sanctions. Is this fair? Empirical Support? General Deterrence Macro Micro (Perceptual) Specific Deterrence

Why little support for deterrence? We can’t get certain, severe, swift enough The theory is based on bad assumptions How rational are we? Equality of opportunity, pleasure, pain? “Marginal” deterrence!

POLICY IMPLICATIONS General Deterrence: certain, swift, and severe punishment reduces crime rates, or the probability that an individual will offend Specific Deterrence: CS&S punishment reduces recidivism Can’t/Won’t make sentences swift, certain, and severe enough? Incapacitate