System and Data Requirements for Fire and Air Planning Janice Peterson.

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Presentation transcript:

System and Data Requirements for Fire and Air Planning Janice Peterson

System and Data Requirements Session Overview Emissions Estimation (Janice Peterson) Fire Emissions Inventories (Sam Sandberg) Fire Activity Tracking (Mike Hilbruner) Monitoring (Jim Russell) F-CAMMS Modeling Consortia's (Doug Fox) BlueSky (Sue Ferguson) Technology Transfer Session

Wildfire PM2.5 Compared to Other US Sources

Wildfire can emit as much PM2.5 in a day as the largest point or highest area source (county total) does in a year

Estimating Emissions Basic Data Requirements Area Burned Fuel Load Fuel Consumption Emission Factor

Estimating Emissions Basic Data Requirements Area Burned Fuel Load Fuel Consumption Emission Factor

Estimating Emissions Basic Data Requirements Area Burned Fuel Load Fuel Consumption Emission Factor

Estimating Emissions Basic Data Requirements Area Burned Fuel Load Fuel Consumption Emission Factor

Data Complexity Can Add Accuracy FUELBED COMPONENT FUEL LOADING (t/a) FUEL CONSUMPTION (percent) EMISSION FACTOR (lbs/ton) TOTAL EMISSIONS (lbs/ac) FlamingSmolderingFlamingSmoldering Live Fuels (herb, grass, brush) Small Woody Fuels (0-¼, ¼-1, 1-3, litter) Large Fuels (3-6, 6-9, 9-20, 20+) Duff or Humus

Biscuit Fire Example - Acres Biscuit Fire 499,965 acres PM2.5 Emissions 115,492 tons

Acres Burned – Acres Black Biscuit Fire 499,965 acres 99,993 unburned or very low severity PM2.5 Emissions 92,394 tons

Biscuit Fire Severity 499,965 acres 99,993 unburned or very low 204,986 low 114,992 moderate 79,994 high

Burn Characteristics Affect Emissions

Data Needs for Emissions Estimation – Wildfire and Rx Fire Acres (*systematic overestimation?) Acres black (reported or modeled) Acres by severity Fuel Type Maps Reported fuel loading Fuel loading by size class Fuel moisture mapping Reported fuel moisture Reported fuel consumption

Emissions vs. ….

Emissions vs. ….Impacts

Dispersion Modeling: Promises vs. Realities

Dispersion Modeling Accuracy Model sophistication (EPA certification) Meteorology Ignition Duration Fuel Moisture Flaming vs. Smoldering Consumption Fuel Loading ??

Monitoring Accurate for impacts. Expensive, time consuming, difficult. What is our responsibility? Wildfire Rx Fire Compliance Reality vs. perception Nuisance smoke

System and Data Requirements Session Overview Emissions Estimation (Janice Peterson) Fire Emissions Inventories (Sam Sandberg) Fire Activity Tracking (Mike Hilbruner) Monitoring (Jim Russell) F-CAMMS Modeling Consortia's (Doug Fox) BlueSky (Sue Ferguson) Technology Transfer Session