Weather-Ready Nation Christopher Strager U.S. National Weather Service June 10-14, 2013 Weather-Ready Nation Christopher Strager U.S. National Weather Service June 10-14,

National Weather Service U.S. National Weather Service 2 VISION MISSION

National Weather Service NWS Operations Community Based Services 3

National Weather Service U.S. Disaster-related Authorities U.S. Disaster-related Authorities Robert T Stafford Relief and Emergency Assistance Act (1988) constitutes the statutory authority for most federal disaster response activities Presidential Policy Directive 8: National Preparedness is aimed at strengthening the security and resilience of the U.S. through preparation against security attacks of all kinds. National Disaster Recovery Framework enables effective recovery support to states, tribes, territorial, and local jurisdictions. Disaster Mitigation Act of 2000 builds upon the Stafford Act and provides the legal basis for state, local, and tribal governments to undertake a risk- based strategies for mitigating disaster impacts. The U.S. National Science and Technology Council’s interagency Subcommittee on Disaster Reduction (SDR) serves as the national platform for the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction. 4

National Weather Service U.S. Disaster-related Approach U.S. Disaster-related Approach NOAA and the National Weather Service work with other Federal Agencies in an “All Hands on Deck” approach to disaster response and resilience o Department of Homeland Security/Federal Emergency Management Agency o Department of Interior/U.S. Geological Survey o Department of Agriculture/U.S. Forestry Service o U.S. Army Corp of Engineers o Department of State/United States Agency for International Development---international collaboration programs 5

National Weather Service “Average” Year and Trends in the U.S. “Average” Year and Trends in the U.S. 6 Atlantic Hurricanes 6 Atlantic Hurricanes 1,300 Tornadoes 5,000 Floods 26,000 Severe Thunderstorms 26,000 Severe Thunderstorms 650 Deaths $15B in Losses 650 Deaths $15B in Losses 6 Regardless of the cause, the trend shows an increasing number of extreme weather events at increasing cost to the nation.

National Weather Service Climate Extremes on the Rise Climate Extremes on the Rise 7 CEI Component (type of extreme) Max. Temperature (“afternoon highs”) Min. Temperature (“overnight lows”) Palmer Drought Severity Index 1-Day Precipitation Days with/without Precipitation Landfalling Tropical Cyclones U.S. Climate Extremes Index ( CEI ),

National Weather Service In the past few years… Scope of Disasters Reflects Our Societal Vulnerability In the past few years… Scope of Disasters Reflects Our Societal Vulnerability 8

National Weather Service 9 “Superstorm” Sandy

National Weather Service “Superstorm” Sandy Social and Economic Impacts 72 US deaths, plus 75 outside the US 17 US states affected; damage between $50-65 Billion 8.5 million without power at the height of the storm Over 18,000 commercial airline flights canceled Evacuations from Maryland to Massachusetts (400 miles of coastline) West Virginia paralyzed under 3 feet of snow LaGuardia airport – Courtesy of Jet Blue 10

National Weather Service What will 2013 be known for… It is time to reverse this trend downward What will 2013 be known for… It is time to reverse this trend downward 11

National Weather Service Life and Property Aviation Maritime Space Operations Forests Emergency Management CommercePortsEnergyHydropowerReservoir Control Infrastructure ConstructionAgricultureRecreationEcosystemsHealthEnvironment What is at Risk? What Can We Do? 12

National Weather Service Weather-Ready Nation Decreasing Vulnerability by Increasing Resilience Weather-Ready Nation Decreasing Vulnerability by Increasing Resilience Becoming a Weather- Ready Nation is about building community resilience in the face of increasing vulnerability to extreme weather. 13 NOAA is developing new decision support services, improving technology to track and forecast storms, and expanding its dissemination efforts to achieve far- reaching national preparedness for weather events.

National Weather Service Weather-Ready Nation NWS Changes Weather-Ready Nation NWS Changes New and rapidly evolving needs from society call for the National Weather Service to shift from the way we forecast and warn today to an impact-based decision support services approach. This new focus has four elements: Better understanding of societal impacts Making our information more relevant to decision makers Participating directly in decision making for those decisions fundamental to the role of government, especially the protection of life and property Counting on market forces to provide diverse decision-support services across the entire economy 14

National Weather Service How Do We Get to the Future? How Do We Get to the Future? 15 Roadmap Build a Roadmap to a Weather- Ready Nation Society is Prepared for and Responds to Weather-Dependent Events

National Weather Service Building a Weather-Ready Nation Emphasis on Decision Support Services Building a Weather-Ready Nation Emphasis on Decision Support Services Provide superior decision support and foundational information services NWS will use our unique, local relationships with Core Partners to help them to better prepare our communities for extraordinary events Invest in Science and Technology Use state-of-the-art technology and cutting-edge science to provide the best service possible Empower our workforce Workforce is trained and equipped to meet America’s evolving needs Emergency Response Specialists (ERS) are accessible on-site and through remote technologies 16

National Weather Service Building a Weather-Ready Nation Warnings and Forecasts From the Sun to the Sea Building a Weather-Ready Nation Warnings and Forecasts From the Sun to the Sea Delivering life-saving weather forecasts and warnings Impact-based tornado warnings Improved Hurricane forecasts 17

National Weather Service 2011 Japan Tsunami: California Impacts Winter Storm Forecasts -Lead time of 2-3 days Wildfire Support On-site Meteorologists 18 Improved space weather forecasting Drought and flood forecasting Building a Weather-Ready Nation Warnings and Forecasts From the Sun to the Sea Building a Weather-Ready Nation Warnings and Forecasts From the Sun to the Sea

National Weather Service Building a Weather-Ready Nation Innovative Science and Technology Solutions Building a Weather-Ready Nation Innovative Science and Technology Solutions 19 Model Ensembles Next-Generation Polar Satellites Phased Array Radar Tsunami Detection

National Weather Service Facebook Twitter Youtube Building a Weather-Ready Nation Social Media Building a Weather-Ready Nation Social Media 20

National Weather Service 21 NWS will continue to improve the science and the technical capabilities. We need your help in transforming society to become ready, responsive and resilient to increasing extreme weather threats. A Weather-Ready Nation requires our entire society to improve the way it incorporates weather information into decision making. Building a Weather-Ready Nation Building a Weather-Ready Nation We need your help ▪ SOCIETAL RESPONSE EQUAL TO RISK ▪

National Weather Service Building a Weather-Ready Nation It’s All About Partnerships Building a Weather-Ready Nation It’s All About Partnerships Government Emergency Management AcademiaPrivate Sector Broadcast Media Social Science 22

National Weather Service Building a Weather-Ready Nation Ambassadors Building a Weather-Ready Nation Ambassadors 23 Resilience as high priority Preparedness Responsiveness Mitigation Innovative partnerships Reinvigorate existing relationships Create new relationships Expand beyond Weather Enterprise Consistent messaging More effective communication with public Rising above the “noise” of daily life

National Weather Service Weather-Ready Nation Initiative Doesn’t Stop at Border…International Engagement Weather-Ready Nation Initiative Doesn’t Stop at Border…International Engagement Same challenges exist in other countries Global vulnerability increasing Quantifying societal relevance Communicating the science We can learn from one another Open dialogue Sharing best practices Strength in numbers 24

National Weather Service Questions and Discussion 25