Outlook for CIS Iron Ore Market Andrey Kuzmin Head of Raw Materials Department Metal Courier CIS Raw Materials in World Markets 15-16 November 2006, Moscow.

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Presentation transcript:

Outlook for CIS Iron Ore Market Andrey Kuzmin Head of Raw Materials Department Metal Courier CIS Raw Materials in World Markets November 2006, Moscow

The main points of presentation CIS domestic market structureCIS domestic market structure CIS iron ore export structureCIS iron ore export structure Iron ore consumption and export forecastsIron ore consumption and export forecasts

2006 Iron Ore Production: Mt 2006 Domestic Market: Mt CIS Production and Domestic Iron Ore Supplies, Mt 21% 24%25% 26%

2006 Concentrate Shipments: 85.1 Mt 2003 Concentrate Shipments: 77.4 Mt Concentrate Shipments by CIS Producers, Mt 11% 13%11% 14%

2006 Pellets Shipments: 63.2 Mt 2003 Pellets Shipments: 52.1 Mt Pellets Shipments by CIS Producers, Mt 27% 31%38% 40%

2006 Sintering Ore Shipments: 18.6 Mt 2003 Sintering Ore Shipments: 17.6 Mt Sintering Ore Shipments by CIS Producers, Mt 42%38% 40% 40%

Iron ore self-sufficiency rate of CIS steelmakers Russia Sintering Ore 31% Concentrate76% Pellets50% Ukraine 34% Concentrate14% Pellets67%

Consolidation of Russian Iron Ore Market Pellets Concentrate

Consolidation of Ukrainian Iron Ore Market PelletsConcentrate Sintering Ore

CIS Iron Ore Export Structure, Mt 2006 Iron Ore Export: 44.1 Mt 2003 Iron Ore Export: 29.5 Mt

Major Markets for CIS exporters

2.5 Mt ROMANIA 0.6 Mt BULGARIA 1.4 Mt HUNGARY 7.1 Mt POLAND 2.3 Mt SERBIA 6.5 Mt SLOVAKIA 7.5 Mt CZECH REP. Russia and Ukraine in Eastern European Market Ukraine Total export – 20.2 Mt incl. to Eastern Europe – 14.6 Mt Russia Total export – 19.5 Mt incl. to Eastern Europe – 13.2 Mt Eastern Europe Iron Ore Import - Others - Ukraine - Russia Eastern Europe Iron Ore Import Structure in 2006

Chinese Iron Ore Import 2006 Iron Ore Import: Mt 2005 Iron Ore Import: 275 Mt

CIS Iron Ore Export Structure, Mt 2006 Iron Ore Export: 44.1 Mt 2003 Iron Ore Export: 29.5 Mt

Prospects for CIS iron ore producers are not very promising CIS domestic iron ore demand will show only sluggish growthCIS domestic iron ore demand will show only sluggish growth In the coming 5 years world major iron ore producers will increase production of high-grade material substantiallyIn the coming 5 years world major iron ore producers will increase production of high-grade material substantially Consolidation in steel and mining industries will lead to increase of long-term iron-ore contract market. So, the volume of spot market where CIS suppliers are most active may go downConsolidation in steel and mining industries will lead to increase of long-term iron-ore contract market. So, the volume of spot market where CIS suppliers are most active may go down Steel industry consolidation in Eastern Europe will force out CIS suppliersSteel industry consolidation in Eastern Europe will force out CIS suppliers

Important issues for CIS mining companies to survive To survive, CIS mining companies will have to: increase product qualityincrease product quality expand transport infrastructure with regard to exportexpand transport infrastructure with regard to export

Steel Production in Russia is a Major Raw Materials Consumption driver, Mt

Steel Production Structure in Russia, Mt

Pig Iron Production in CIS, Mt

HBI Production in CIS, Mt

Forecasts of Pellets Export from Russia, Mt

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