THE ECONOMY AND THE VOTERS: 2010 Kathleen A. Frankovic Hawaii Economic Association August 26, 2010

OVERVIEW What are the national prospects for House and Senate? What can we expect the role of issues to be in the election campaign? Which issues have shown up in this year’s elections? How do political scientists forecast the outcome? Will it all be about the economy?

WHERE WE STAND HOUSE COMPOSITION –256 Democrats, 179 Republicans –All seats are up SENATE COMPOSITION –37 seats up (includes special elections) –Current Senate: 59 Democrats, 41 Republicans –Not up: 40 Democrats, 23 Republicans –Democrats ONLY need 10 wins to keep control

WILL THIS BE 1994 ALL OVER AGAIN? In 1994, Republicans had an 8-point lead in House vote and captured 54 Democratic seats This year they need only 39 There are 49 Congressional districts with Democratic Congressmen that were carried by McCain in 2008 However, only 11 gave McCain 60% or more of the vote Most of those Congressmen seem secure

FORECASTING MIDTERM ELECTIONS Elections have been nationalized since 1994 and Newt Gingrich’s Contract with America Before then, many – if not most – of House and Senate races were decided by local and candidate factors On many of the important issues, Republicans have an edge And then there’s the Tea Party

POLITICAL SCIENCE’S ATTEMPTS AT PREDICTION REGRESSION MODELS USING… -- Presidential approval -- Current or the change over time -- Some measure of economic growth like the change in real disposable income per capita -- Whether party is “exposed” or controls Congress -- President’s victory margin when elected -- What voters say they will do AND THE MARGIN IS THEN CONVERTED INTO SEATS

THE MODELS HAVEN’T BEEN PARTICULARLY SUCCESSFUL!!! ________ WHAT ARE THE DATA ABOUT THE ISSUES AND THE ELECTION?

MOSQUES

SAME-SEX MARRIAGE Which comes closest to your view? Gay couples should be allowed to legally marry. Gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not legally marry. There should be no legal recognition of a gay couple's relationship.

IMMIGRATION

AFGHANISTAN

THE ISSUES

THE ECONOMY

THE PRESIDENT

THE REPUBLICAN ADVANTAGES IN 2010 Presidential approval below 50% Historical patterns (post-first presidential election) Transient issues favor them Greater enthusiasm

ENTHUSIASM GAP Talked About

THE IMPACT OF ISSUES Economic concerns usually help Democrats, but this year, Democrats are in control. Republican lead on most less important issues BUT…Americans like the Republican Party even less than they like Democrats!

2010 National Congressional Ballot - Latest Poll August 22, 2010

LESS THAN 10 WEEKS TO GO!

THE ECONOMY AND THE VOTERS: 2010 Kathleen A. Frankovic Hawaii Economic Association August 26, 2010