1968 Presidential Election By John Kleeb Richard nixon- Spiro agnew Hubert Humphrey- Edmund Muskie George wallace- curtis lemay From left to right, former Vice President Richard Nixon, Vice President Hubert Humphrey, and Governor George Wallace of Alabama

A look at the important issues of 1968 Law and Order (Criminal Justice) Civil Rights The War in Vietnam The Great Society (LBJ’s Domestic Program Lyndon Johnson’s presidency Riots

Lead up to the election (Democrats) Senator Robert Kennedy, also anti war enters the race too but is tragically assassinated in June following his win in the California primary. Anti War Senator Eugene McCarthy decided to challenge President Johnson in the primaries and came close to beating Johnson in New Hampshire, On March 31st, President Johnson withdrew from the race and Vice President Humphrey became the candidate of Johnson loyalists.

Chicago Democratic National Convention Kennedy’s death complicated the primaries and the Democratic convention that summer in Chicago was marked by riots. Anti-war activists were furious that a pro war candidate, Humphrey was to get the party’s nomination and riots ensued. McCarthy also refused to support Humphrey but eventually did in October. http://www.xtimeline.com/__UserPic_Large/1678/ELT200802270632093554897.JPG

Wordle of Humphrey's Acceptance Speech Key themes that emerge in VP Humphrey’s speech are about peace, change, compromise. Humphrey did not condemn the war in Vietnam which alienated many antiwar elements in the party. http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=25964#axzz1fyoPxgDR

Lead up to the election (Republicans) Richard Nixon got his party’s nomination despite having done in politics after losing to JFK in 1969 and then losing a run for governor in 1962 Staunchly pro civil rights, New York governor, Nelson Rockefeller challenged Nixon from the left in the primaries. Future President and then California governor Ronald Reagan unsuccessfully challenged Reagan from the right..

Wordle of Nixon’s acceptance speech Nixon’s speech has themes of peace emerge greatly in his speech. He later famously said he had a secret plan to end the war which led many to see him as an alternative to Humphrey who was seen as nothing but a Johnson clone. http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=25968#axzz1dKFMkqLt

American Independent Party Governor George Wallace of Alabama was the nominee of the newly formed American Independent Party and a staunch segregationist on race. Wallace had made his name attacking civil rights, this speech shows how Wallace used both the rhetoric of “states rights and freedom” as well as deriding th federal government for the then recently passd Civil Rights Act of 1964. This endeared him to segregationists who didn’t trust either Nixon or Humphrey. http://www.vlib.us/amdocs/texts/wallace64.html

Background Introduction The Democrats had won the previous two elections in 1960 and 1964. In 1960, then Senator John Kennedy had defeated then Vice President Richard Nixon in a close race but he was assassinated in 1963. The next year, President Lyndon Johnson whom had assumed the presidency following Kennedy’s death defeated Senator Barry Goldwater in a landslide.

1960 Presidential Map with electoral college votes http://www.270towin.com/historical_maps/1960.gif, A close race, Kennedy does best in mid-atlantic, South, Nixon does best in mountain west, plains, and west coast, candidates split southwest, upper midwest, and New England.  John F. Kennedy, Democratic 303, 34,227,096, Blue Richard M. Nixon, Republican, 219, 34, 107,646, Red  Unpledged: Purple

Election Map by Counties 1960 http://dsl.richmond.edu/voting/countypopular.html: As you can see, Kennedy and Nixon won counties throughout the country at a fair level. There is no strong regionalism to either party outside the south.

1964 Presidential election map with electoral votes http://www.270towin.com/historical_maps/1964.gif, Johnson wins in a landslide, Johnson outdoes Goldwater everywhere but the deep south and Goldwater’s native Arizona.. Lyndon B. Johnson , Democratic ,486,  42,825,463, Blue   Barry M. Goldwater Republican 52,  27,146,969, Red

Election Map by Counties 1964 http://dsl.richmond.edu/voting/countypopular.html: As you can see, Johnson won this election big, He loses very few counties north of the Mason Dixon-Line and wins many counties that Kennedy lost in.

National polls during the lead up to election day Events that proceed these polls by weeks and days are respectively: Humphrey’s formal entry into the race, RFK’s death, the Republican National Convention, the Democratic National Convention, the AFL-CIO stepping up attacks on Wallace, and President Johnson’s decision to stop bombing North Vietnam.

Ngram for “Law and Order” Both Nixon and Wallace emphasized that they were for “Law and Order”, a message that no doubt reasonated with voters who had seen riots on their television screens.”Law and Order” is a phrase that rises steadily from 1960 through 1968 when it skyrockets, the end point is Nixon’s 1974 resignation.

Humphrey’s late comeback For much of the election Humphrey trailed Nixon but in the campaign’s last week Humphrey began expressing a more dovish tone and he got the endorsement of McCarthy and the Johnson administration halted the bombing of North Vietnam.

1968 Presidential Map with electoral college votes http://www.270towin.com/historical_maps/1968.gif, The popular vote between Humphrey and Nixon is close but Nixon wins handily electorally. Humphrey unlike Kennedy and Johnson has no region that he particularly sweeps and Nixon outside the deep south exempting Florida does well nationwide.  Richard M. Nixon Republican 301,  31,710,470 Red  Hubert H. Humphrey Democratic 191,  30,898,055 Blue  George C. Wallace American Independent,  46 , 9,906,473 Yellow

Election Map by Counties 1968 http://dsl.richmond.edu/voting/countypopular.html: Wallace not surprisingly does best in his native South. Humphrey’s strongest areas are coastal New England and the Mid-Atlatnic while Nixon does well throughout the country.

Illinois, Missouri, Ohio, and New Jersey: Four close states Humphrey lost all four of these states by a close margin. These four states exempting Ohio in 1960 had gone for Kennedy and Johnson in 1960 and 1964. http://uselectionatlas.org/

Comparing the percentage of the vote received by candidates in 1960, 1964, 1968 Percentage received by Republicans and Independents Percentage received by Democrats These five counties are all urban/suburban counties that comprised large numbers of working class, student, and other voters. What is notable is that Humphrey did much more poorly in these areas than Kennedy and Johnson had even though his natural political base was the working class owning to his strong support by and of labor unions.

How Humphrey Could Have Won http://uselectionatlas.org/ As illustrated with polls in previous slides, Humphrey was making massive progress the campaign’s final weeks and could have given a little more time pulled off an electoral win. Arguably if Humphrey had been more strong in his opposition to the war earlier and if the Chicago riots did not happen, Humphrey could have pulled off the upset. Note: In this map Democrats are red and Republicans are blue. The shift involves Humphrey winning Ohio, Illinois, New Jersey, and Missouri all which he lost only by a close margin in the real election.

No electoral majority (an unique scenario) http://uselectionatlas.org/ Only once in the United States’ history has an election gone to the House of Representatives due to a candidate not having an absolute majority of electoral votes. This was Wallace’s hope as he knew he had no chance of winning in the electoral college. The Democrats had a majority in the House of Representatives but Southern conservatives- Wallace’s political base had heavy influence there. Note: In this map Democrats are red and Republicans are blue. This shift involves Alaska, Missouri, and New Jersey going to Humphrey all of which he lost by small margins in the real election.