READINGS: COX AND STOKES CH 13, CARTER CH 6, BEASLEY CH 5, KING, SIMES THE RETURN OF HISTORY? US/RUSSIAN RELATIONS

Guiding Questions How can we classify US/Russian relations in the post Cold War era? What are the goals of Russian foreign policy? Do current tensions between the US and Russia suggest a return to the Cold War? Are we witnessing a “return to history”?

US/Russian Relations: Pre 9/11 Initial domestic instability within the CIS worried NATO. Key aims included:  1) Avoiding another Chernobyl  2) Limiting nuclear proliferation.  3) Russian entrance into the IMF.  4) Support for Russian democracy. Despite the rhetoric, US/Russian relations were in a position of benign neglect until 9/11.

US/Russian Relations: Post 9/11 Given its location, Bush saw an opportunity to solidify Russian support in the fight against terror.  Personal relationship between Bush and Putin solidified by a shared view of terrorist threats. High handed domestic politics in both countries led to a weaker emphasis on democratization in Russia.  Putin has pulled out of bilateral treaties and has suggested that Russia should re-assert themselves. Orange Revolution, the fight over missile defense, further expansion of NATO, and the conflict in Georgia, dampened relations.

STRUCTURAL FACTORS POLITICAL FACTORS POWER  Geopolitically, lack of natural borders has made expansion critical.  Expansion provided access to resources necessary to stabilize domestic politics.  Militarily, nuclear weapons still make it a force of sorts. INTERDEPENDENCE  Oil and natural gas deposits have been a source of tension; have used them to “punish” states that do not follow Russia dictates.  Economically, not a major power. IDEAS  Soviet ideology critical for ‘greatness’ as the vanguard of an international revolution.  Restore Russian power and influence  Create a sphere or influence in the “near abroad” free from outside influence. Political institutional autonomy built under Yeltsin hollowed out under Putin.  President had been the key player in foreign affairs.  Boosting the PM before Putin’s exit raises questions about this.  Legislature and Judiciary not terribly relevant.  Democracy should take a uniquely Russian flavor. Many of the major players in Russian politics today were active in the previous regime. Public opinion: Has been responsive to Putin’s calls to restore Russian influence. Media: Not free. Parties: Not independent. What Does Russia Want?

Return of the Cold War? Simes 2007 Rhetoric and posturing between the US and Russia threaten to return to the Cold War era.  Would complicate relations with China.  Would boost stalemate at the United Nations Who is to blame?  Both sides.  US: “Screwed up” post Communist aftermath by failing to emphasize the relationship.  Russia is not a defeated enemy; Reagan did not “win” the Cold War.  “Spinach treatment” created resentment.  Russia: Foreign policy assertiveness coupled with domestic crackdowns create distrust.  Encouraging Yeltsin to ignore the Duma set the stage for Putin’s authoritarianism. Ignoring Russian opinion on Kosovo, NATO expansion, and Al Qaeda damaging. ABM treaty withdrawal, US support for the Orange and Rose revolutions were the last straw.

Return of the Cold War? King 2009  Georgian conflict was not the start of a new Cold War.  Pattern of engagement then seclusion is nothing new.  Shows Russia no longer sees international institutions as in its interest.  West controls and manipulates the international system for their own benefit. Other states also share this mindset.

How To Fix the Relationship? Simes 2007 US must show a renewed commitment to US-Russian relations.  Focus on shared interests:  1) Counterterrorism  2) Non Proliferation  3) Iran  US should  1) Make it clear that invading NATO members would be unacceptable.  2) Make it clear that reforming the USSR is unacceptable.  3) Using Russian law to seize foreign assets is damaging for relations.  4) Place missile defenses in Czech Republic and Poland.

The Return of History? Kagan 2007  ‘End of history’ resonated in the 1990’s  China and Russia were appearing to shift towards democracy  International politics shows evidence of a ‘return to history” There is no return to the traditional “Cold War” setting  US remains the dominant power within the international system and is likely to remain so  But power is returning to relevance in international politics  1) Nations remain “strong”  2) Unipolar world exists; but regional powers jockeying for position  3) Struggle between liberalism vs. authoritarianism and modernity vs. traditionalism shaping global politics  US hegemony plays a critical role in ensuring that these new rivalries do not run rampant

Conclusions: US/Russia Relations Putin contends “light switch” handling under Yeltsin as inappropriate to great power relations.  Many argue that the on again/off again relationship should be overhauled.  “Reset” by the Obama administration sought to improve this relationship  Obama’s relationship with Medvedev key; unclear if this will change after Putin returns to the presidency Oil and natural gas have given the Russians the ability to exert greater leverage at the international level. Russia has used international institutions and economic practices to balance the US.  Although cooperation over terrorism is still strong Domestic political institutional instability complicates negotiations with the Russians.  Western style democracy, in the short term, appears to be a bridge too far.

Next Lecture If You’re Interested…  Politkovskaya. Putin’s Russia  Kagan. The Return of History and the End of Dreams Theme: New Challenges for US Foreign Policy-Hegemony and the Security Trap  Cox and Stokes CH 21  Gelb (Foreign Affairs-May/June 2009)  Nye: (Foreign Affairs-November/December 2010)