PEER 2002 PEER Annual Meeting Lessons from the Nisqually Earthquake for PBEE uStephanie E. Chang.

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Presentation transcript:

PEER 2002 PEER Annual Meeting Lessons from the Nisqually Earthquake for PBEE uStephanie E. Chang

PBEE Premise “Performance-based earthquake engineering implies design, evaluation, and construction of engineered facilities whose performance under common and extreme loads responds to the diverse needs and objectives of owner-users and society. PBEE is based on the premise that performance can be predicted and evaluated with sufficient confidence for the engineer and client jointly to make intelligent and informed decisions...” (Krawinkler, 1999)

Nisqually Earthquake Study 2 business districts “Complete” sample –107 businesses in 62 bldgs. In-person, structured interviews: –business info –damage type / cost –financing repair –business interruption –mitigations Pioneer Square SoDo

Costs and Stakeholders Type of CostWho bears the cost? Structural repair costBuilding owner Non-structural repair costBuilding owner -windows, light fixtures, etc Business owner – inventory, machinery, furnishings Lifelines Building owner, Local Government, and Utilities Revenue Loss Business interruption Loss of customers Business owner

1. Hidden costs and consequences are very important. Damage TypeCount Business closure (temp.)81 Short-term revenue loss54 Structural damage (bl.)53 Damage to inventory50 Non-str. dmg. (windows,…)32 “Lifeline” disruption21 Long-term revenue loss14 (~25) Damage to furnishings8 Damage to equipment5 Injury to employees0 What kinds of impacts…? (N=107) 89% because of “lack of customers”; 87% are retail 93% because of “loss of customer base”; 86% are retail 46% had no structural damage

Hidden costs (cont’d) How will you pay for…? …damage (N=67) …business interruption loss (N=63) Insurance6 %5 % SBA loan9 %10 % Commercial loan3 %5 % Business reserves / self-insured51 %55 % Out-of-pocket28 %22 % Unsure3 %5 %

Building Damage YesNoNo, w/response costs Not yet reopen Total (no.bus.) Red tag60%20%0%20%100% (10) Yellow39%54%0%7%100% (28) Green52%44%4%0%100% (54) Not inspected 57%43%0% 100% (14) 2. Structural damage is a very imprecise predictor of business impacts. Short-term revenue loss?

Damage as Predictor (cont’d) Sector YesNoNo, w/response costs Not yet reopen Total (no.bus.) Retail57%29%0%14%100% (14) Manuf. or service 23%77%0% 100% (13) Short-term revenue loss? Yellow-tag building occupants only:

3.Externality effects can be a major source of loss. A.Own-business problems –Financing (11) –Permits for repair (5) –Dislocation (3) _____ 19 B.Externality-type problems –Customer loss (11) –Street closure – parking (11) –Media perception (6) –1 st Ave. parking lane (4) –Return to status quo (parking/attitudes…) (2) –Ongoing Repairs in area (6) _____ 40 Most important recovery problem?

Pioneer Square (Jackson St./Fenix Bl.)

SoDo (buslane)

Lessons for PBEE Selection of appropriate decision variable(s) (e.g., annual loss, exceedance of limit states) is highly complex and ambiguous. –Multiple relevant categories of loss –Difficult to predict & loosely correlated with structural damage state –Different stakeholder perspectives

Lessons (cont’d) Need to recognize high degree of uncertainty. –As important for DV as for damage and intensity prediction. –Need much more empirical data, model validation.

Lessons (cont’d) Divergence between public and private objectives should be considered. –Impacts of performance decisions on neighbors, local area. –Role of public sector?