Analysis of NASA GISS Temperature Data Southeast Wisconsin and Northeast Illinois December 29, 2009

2 Analysis Summary Chart the Annual Temperatures for locations in Southeast Wisconsin and Northeast Illinois Chart the 10-year Average Temperatures Use Raw and Homogenized Data Check for a pattern in any differences between the two Plot the Average Temperatures against the Solar Cycles Conclusions

3 Temperature Locations Fond du Lac, Wisconsin (1895 to present) Oshkosh, Wisconsin (1895 to present) Green Bay, Wisconsin (1886 to present) Milwaukee Mt Mary, Wisconsin (1895 to present) Racine, Wisconsin (1896 to present) Aurora, Illinois (1895 to present) Midway, Illinois (1886 to 1981) O’Hare, Illinois (1958 to present) The following two sites are also referenced but each had two raw sites merged into one homogenized temperature. Madison, Wisconsin (1886 to present) Milwaukee Gen, Wisconsin (1886 to 1980, 1948 to present)

4 Summary Graphs Annual Temperatures in Celsius (the temperature record in GISS data) Three GISS data classifications:  raw GHCN data+USHCN corrections  after combining sources at same location  after homogeneity adjustment These graphs use the raw data set Ten Year Average Temperatures in C Ten Year Average Temperatures in F

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6 Observations to Annual Temps Raw temperatures were fairly flat over the 110 years 1917 was the coldest year in most sites 1931 was the hottest year in most Wisconsin sites; 1921 was hottest in some Illinois sites; 1998 was near hottest in all 2008 was cooler than previous years

7 Trends in the Temperature Record Excel provides the LINEST function to determine a trend in a data set. The following calculations were with the raw temperatures from 1896 to 2008 (except Midway which is only from 1896 to 1981).  Fond du Lac: °C/year  Oshkosh: °C/year  Green Bay: °C/year  Milwaukee Mt Mary: °C/year  Racine: °C/year  Aurora: °C/year  Midway: °C/year With roughly 110 years in the data sets, these trends amount to roughly +1.0°C per century. Midway’s trend was negligible; its record stopped before most recent warming period. The two locations in the Milwaukee area have the highest positive trends while Green Bay and Aurora (a suburb near Chicago) have the lowest.

8 Trends in the Temperature Record The trends can be sensitive to the starting point. These are the results from 1909 to 2008, using the last 100 years of data.  Fond du Lac: °C/year  Oshkosh: °C/year  Green Bay: °C/year  Milwaukee Mt Mary: °C/year  Racine: °C/year  Aurora: °C/year

9 Trends in the Temperature Record Since global records indicate cooler temperatures were found during a period called the Little Ice Age (roughly 1300 to 1850), this slight positive trend has been suggested as part of the natural recovery from that cooler condition (i.e., the world is naturally warming to a new equilibrium because it had been cooler for a while). Also, many of these locations are cities. The Urban Heat Island effect has been noted, with increasing nighttime temperatures and steady to increasing daytime temperatures. Also, there is an apparent recent decreasing temperature trend (visible in the graph after 1998 for all sites) so if that continues these trend values will decrease appropriately. The longer solar cycle 23 has been suggested as an influence for cooler temperatures. An comparison of solar cycle lengths with temperature trends will follow.

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12 Observations to 10 Year Averages Records consistently show warming in the average to a peak around 1940 (which is the average of ), then show cooling until about the mid to late 1980’s Warming is seen from about 1987 to 2007 Recent cooling in 2008 has apparently reversed that warming trend (and the unusually warm year of 1998 is not in future 10-year averages)

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14 Observations to Decades The averages by decade came from the homogenized data set Decades before the 1930 decade (the decade from 1930 to 1939) were consistently cooler The 1930 decade was followed by four cooler decades, to the 1970 decade Recent decades have been warming

15 Conclusions - 1 Temperature data reveal a cool start to the 20 th century, warming to a peak in the 1930’s Temperatures cooled for the following four decades until the 1970’s Temperatures warmed until about 2000 Temperatures have been cooler in the most recent years CO2 levels were consistently increasing through the past century. The 1930’s were significantly warmer than the decades before or after it and yet that decade (the Great Depression) did not have significant growth in CO2 emissions from mankind. The 1950’s to 1970’s were part of that CO2 growth (after WW II) and yet those decades were cooler than the decades before or after. There can be no direct correlation between one measurement (CO2) steadily increasing with another measurement (temperatures) having such pronounced ups/downs. There must be something other than CO2 with a greater influence on the recorded temperature data.

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18 Observations to the Adjustments in Wisconsin These comparisons are between the ‘raw’ (1) and ‘homogenized’ (2) data sets Fond du Lac temperatures were changed by -0.3°C to 0°C in increments of 0.1°C Green Bay temperatures were changed by -0.8°C to +0.2°C to 0°C in increments of 0.1°C Mount Mary temperatures were changed by +0.6°C to 0°C in increments of 0.1°C Racine temperatures were changed by +1.0°C to 0°C in increments of 0.1°C Missing records in GISS data (especially Racine) resulted in some differences that depart from the observed patterns

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20 Observations to the Adjustments in Illinois Midway temperatures were changed by +0.1°C to +0.2°C to 0°C in increments of 0.1°C; missing GISS records resulted in fluctuations outside of this pattern Aurora had no differences O’Hare showed no pattern (Fond du Lac, Wisconsin is included only for reference)

21 Conclusions - 2 Adjustments either up or down are seen in several Wisconsin sites. Green Bay had the oldest temperatures decreased but the more recent temperatures (1965 to 1999) increased. No other site checked had patterns of both increases and decreased noted. Green Bay and Fond du Lac are smaller cities and both had a pattern of decreasing the oldest temperature data. Mt Mary and Racine are within the large Milwaukee metropolitan area and both had a pattern of increasing the oldest temperature data. Midway, Illinois had the oldest temperatures increased. There is no readily apparent explanation for these observed, inconsistent (some up, others down) adjustments to the temperature record. This exercise was performed out of curiosity due to the revelations of ‘ClimateGate.’

22 Temperatures and Sun Spot Cycles I have seen/read presentations by David Archibald ( about a relationship between the temperature and the duration of the sun spot cycle, using European temperature records (spanning over 200 years). I looked for such a relationship in the local temperature data gathered, though the records span barely over 100 years. The ‘list of solar cycles’ in Wikipedia was used for dates of minimum and maximum in the cycles.

23 Charted Analysis Raw temperatures are averaged over an 11 year span centered on the solar cycle maximum (I am not certain this is the correct rule to apply but here is the data using that algorithm.) Each chart’s ‘months’ values are the number of months in that solar cycle with the accompanying average temperature plotted above it.

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29 Conclusions - 3 The relationship observed when plotting the average temperatures with sunspot cycles is not conclusive. There is a rather rough correlation with shorter sun spot cycles being warmer (top left) and longer cycles being cooler (bottom right). There are only ten data points available for most sites used here, fewer than seen in some European records (with a longer history) that have been referenced. The middle - high point in several plots show spans with unusually warm years, like 1998 in Wisconsin or in Illinois.

30 Conclusions - 4 These are observations not a proof. These are only local temperature records. However, there is widespread concern about increasing CO2 levels, especially that caused by mankind. This concern is called Anthropogenic Global Warming, or AGW. Local temperatures have been changing recently in patterns that alternately increase or decrease over decades. These trends are somewhat roughly in line with the corresponding solar sun spot cycles at the time. Global temperature records indicate the world was cooler than now several hundred years ago (called the Little Ice Age) and also it was warmer than now about one thousand years ago (called the Medieval Warm Period). These changes in global climate could not have been related to the recent increases in CO2 levels. If this local observation (about local temperature patterns) applies globally and if the global climate changes before the Industrial Revolution are recognized then AGW is not a cause for concern about global catastrophe. There are many global causes for concern, like war, disease and inadequate supply of vaccines, malnutrition, real pollution with toxic or carcinogenic compounds, extreme poverty, etc., but CO2 should not be one.

31 Finish This power point was prepared by Dave for his web site. Microsoft Power Point 2003 and Excel 2003 were used in this presentation. The Excel spreadsheets can be obtained from The GISS data sets came from: