Sea Shore Flow Enlisted Career Paths Information Brief NAVADMIN 2012 Update Unclassified 03DEC12

Evolution of Sea Shore Flow None … Close Enough … Optimal Seavey Shorevey Sea Shore Rotation Sea Shore Flow TACOMA CLASS (PF-3) 900 Ship Navy – 775K Personnel Policy: 1957 – 1974 Sailors remained at sea indefinitely and rolled ashore based on time in grade and shore billet availability Catalyst: Centralized Distribution -Previous decentralized system caused large scale “bottle necks” in moving inventory across the Navy - First computer based “fair share” personnel assignment system - Sea Survey and Shore Survey rotation program O.H. PERRY CLASS (FFG-7) 600 Ship Navy – 600K Personnel Policy: 1974 – 2008 Sailors’ sea tour length determined by a ratio of sea billets to shore billets for each particular rating and paygrade Catalyst: All Volunteer Force - Fixed PRD required to calculate inventory projections - Predictable sea tour lengths needed to recruit and retain volunteer Sailors - Sea-shore billet ratio provided a close enough approximation for tour lengths FREEDOM CLASS (LCS-1) 313 Ship Navy – 322K Personnel Policy: 2008 – 20XX Sailors’ sea tour length determined by an optimal career path for each enlisted community Catalyst: Sea-Centric Force - Reduced shore billet structure driven by fiscal constraints - SSR billet ratio metric lacks fidelity needed to manage a sea-centric force - SSF provides optimal sea tour lengths Sea Survey Shore Survey (Seavey Shorevey) – None - No defined sea tour length - Did not provide the necessary QOL, stability, or predictability for the transition to the all volunteer force. Sea Shore Rotation (SSR) – Close Enough - Tour lengths determined by the ratio of sea billets to shore billets by paygrade - Not an accurate metric for determining sea tour lengths in a sea-centric Navy. - Provided a close enough approximation for a Navy that had ample shore billets for Sailors to fill between sea duty - As the Navy finds efficiencies in the shore billet structure (i.e., becomes leaner ashore), close enough is no longer good enough Sea Shore Flow (SSF) – Optimal - Sea tour lengths determined by the optimal career path for each enlisted community - Factors each rating’s entire billet structure (EPA), continuation rates and gain distributions over time - The Navy is not as sea-intensive as indicated by SSR - Can improve FIT by shortening some sea tour lengths

Sea Shore Flow Optimizing Enlisted Career Paths 30 year LOS Profile t n end f (E, C, G, T) Billets Aligned to Sea Tours f (E, C, G, T) dt = Billets Aligned to Sea Tours t n start E - EPA C - Continuation Rate G - Gain Distribution T - Time n - Sea Tour Index {Sea Tour 1, Sea Tour 2, …} - Sea Tour ‘n’ start month - Sea Tour ‘n’ end month - User Defined Ideal Sea Tour Length Objective Function 1: Minimize Total Time at Sea Sea Shore Flow Model – The Calculus - Deterministic math model that considers the whole of an enlisted community: - Spreads EPA over a 30-year LOS profile - Factors initial training requirements - Accounts for continuation rate and gain distribution - Maximizes FIT (i.e., prioritizes manning of operational billets) - Calculates optimal Sea Shore Flow career paths for each community - Assesses feasibility of geo-stability for each rating within an FCA SSF = f (EPA, Continuation Rate, Gain Distribution, Time) - The number of billets that can be filled at sea corresponds to the area under the EPA curve from the time each sea tour starts until it ends - The optimal career path either minimizes total time at sea (front loads sea billets to early sea tours) or minimizes deviation from ideal sea tour lengths (uniformly spreads sea tour lengths) - The primary constraint is that the total number of billets aligned to sea tours equals the sea EPA (i.e., man all billets at sea) - A side constraint (not listed but identified by the space between sea tours under the EPA curve) is the requirement for a Sailor to have a shore tour between sea tours - Assumes there is a Sailor for every billet (Billets = Bodies) and Sailors that stay in the Navy complete prescribed sea tours Objective Function 2: Minimize Deviation from User Defined Ideal Sea Tour Lengths t n start n end IST n Constraint: Billets Aligned to Sea Tours = Sea EPA

What Has Changed Recently Revisions Incorporated in the 2011 SSF NAVADMIN Changes from the 2008 SSF NAVADMIN include: 36 ratings have longer sea tour lengths 6 ratings have shorter sea tour lengths 3 ratings have shorter shore tour lengths 2 ratings have longer shore tour lengths 4 ratings have been added to the sea-intensive category 1 rating has been removed from the sea-intensive category PSs have reverted from INUS/OUTUS back to Sea/Shore MAs have been granted OUTUS duty credit for completing SWF duty assignment ITSs have been added as a new rating Verbiage defining maximum sea tour lengths is based on Years of Service (YOS) Changes to the enlisted billet base since 2008 necessitate the update to the SSF NAVADMIN. In order to avoid ambiguity, provide detailers with maximum flexibility, and meet the policy intent of limiting sea tour lengths for retirement eligible personnel, the verbiage for the maximum sea tour length statement in the revised SSF NAVADMIN is proposed as: "60 months for Sailors with less than 20 years of service (YOS) and 48 months for Sailors with more than 20 YOS."   The original wording from 2008 NAVADMIN reads: "SEA TOUR LENGTHS FOR THESE COMMUNITIES WILL NOT EXCEED 60 MONTHS FOR THE FIRST AND SECOND SEA TOURS AND 48 MONTHS FOR THE THIRD AND FOURTH SEA TOURS." Sailors Will Serve Longer at Sea Due to More Sea Duty, Less Shore Duty, Higher Friction

Adjusting Tour Lengths to Account for Changes in the Billet Base What Will Change Proposed Revisions Incorporated in the 2012 SSF NAVADMIN Changes from the 2011 SSF NAVADMIN include: 4 ratings have longer sea tour lengths 2 ratings have shorter sea tour lengths 2 ratings have shorter shore tour lengths 1 rating has shorter shore tour and sea tour lengths 1 rating has shorter sea tour and longer shore tour lengths 15 ratings included in T+X program PRD grandfather period set to August 2013 Changes to the enlisted billet base since 2008 necessitate the update to the SSF NAVADMIN. In order to avoid ambiguity, provide detailers with maximum flexibility, and meet the policy intent of limiting sea tour lengths for retirement eligible personnel, the verbiage for the maximum sea tour length statement in the revised SSF NAVADMIN is proposed as: "60 months for Sailors with less than 20 years of service (YOS) and 48 months for Sailors with more than 20 YOS."   The original wording from 2008 NAVADMIN reads: "SEA TOUR LENGTHS FOR THESE COMMUNITIES WILL NOT EXCEED 60 MONTHS FOR THE FIRST AND SECOND SEA TOURS AND 48 MONTHS FOR THE THIRD AND FOURTH SEA TOURS." Adjusting Tour Lengths to Account for Changes in the Billet Base

Proposed Tour Length Changes Revisions to the SSF NAVADMIN for 2012 EMC Rating Proposed Change B130 MMSW Increase sea tour 1 by 12 months C126 ETSRF Increase sea tour 2 by 12 months C151 MMSSW Increase sea tour 2 by 6 months C180 MT Increase sea tour 2 by 6 months B640 MA Decrease all tours to 36 months B710 PS Decrease sea tour 2 by 6 months B730 SH Decrease sea tours 2, and 4 by 6 months each B750 YN Decrease all shore tours to 48 months E100 ND Decrease all shore tours to 36 months B670 NC Reduce all sea tours to 36 months and Increase all shore tours to 42 months 12 Ratings with Recommended Tour Length Changes for 2012

Sea Shore Flow Spectrum Shore-Intensive to Sea-Intensive SOs andSBs serve back to back sea tours to man all sea duty billets POM 13 partially restored Sea Shore Flow Balance by Adding 196 in-rate shore billets for sea-intensive ratings at ATG and RMC Reducing sea duty billets with force structure cuts Realigning 1062 General Duty (FAC-G) billets from non-sea-intensive to sea-intensive ratings POM 14 continued Sea Shore Flow Balancing by Adding 600 in-rate shore duty billets for sea-intensive ratings at ATG, RMC, FRC, FRS, and NMC Adding 500 Student Individuals Account billets Adding 1200 TPPH billets Realigning 165 FAC-G General Duty (FAC-G) billets Sea Tour Length Limit – 18 yrs T+X Reduces 1st Sea Tour Length Time at Sea Over 30-yr Career (months) Sea Shore Tour Length Limits (18 years at sea total): 1 & 2nd sea tour: Maximum 5 years 3 & 4th sea tour: Maximum 4 years All shore tours: Minimum 3 years Black Bars – Months at sea over 30 year career for each rating as promulgated in the July 2011 SSF NAVADMIN Gray Bars – Unconstrained solution for sea-intensive ratings (i.e., total months at sea needed to man all sea duty billets) Note: SEALs and SWCCs need to serve back to back sea tours POM-13 billet actions partially balanced Sea Shore Flow (SSF). However, sea-intensive ratings (those on the right side of the SSF Spectrum graph) remain a challenge and will systemically gap sea duty billets unless we achieve SSF balance or relax our tour length constraints. POM-14 can achieve SSF balance by adding in-rate shore duty billets for sea-intensive (e.g., ATG, RMC, and FRC) ratings and properly fund our Student Individuals Account. Adding rating-enhancing shore tour billets for sea-intensive ratings in the RMCs can improve shipboard material readiness, increase in-rate experience levels for Sailors returning back to sea for their second sea tour, balance Sea Shore Flow, and improve geographic stability. Shore-Intensive Ratings Sea-Intensive Ratings Sea Shore Flow Balance Obtainable in POM-15

Sea Shore Flow Categories Definitions and Ratings Sea-Intensive (17 Ratings) Those ratings whose SSF career paths have been set to the maximum sea tour lengths allowed by policy resulting in 216 months (18 years) at sea over a 30-year time horizon: ABE, ABF, ABH, AO, ENSW, GSE, GSM, DC, EMSW, ICSW, FC, FCAEGIS, BM, QMSW, EOD, SO, SB Sea-Centric (30 Ratings) Those ratings whose SSF career paths result in at least 180 months (15 years) but less than 216 months (18 years) at sea over a 30-year time horizon: AM, AE, AT, AW, MMSW, HT, GM, STG, OS, CS, SH, LCAC, LS, ETSNV, FT, MMSS, MMSSW, CSSS, STS, EMNUCSS, EMNUCSW, ETNUCSS, ETNUCSW, MMNUCSS, MMNUCSW, ELTNUCSS, ELTNUCSW, CM, EO, SW Shore-Centric (30 Ratings) Those ratings whose SSF career paths result in less than 180 months (15 years) at sea over a 30-year time horizon: AD, AME, AG, AS, AZ, PR, MR, ETSW, IT, CTM, CTT, IS, MC, LN, MA, NC, PS, RP, YN, ETSRF, MN, MT, LSSS, YNSS, ITS, ND, BU, CE, EA, UT Shore-Intensive (7 Ratings) Those ratings that do not have career paths defined by SSF: AC, CTI, CTN, CTR, MU, NCCR, HM Notes: SEAL (SO) and SWCC (SB) follow special career paths and remain operational for over 10 years Nuclear power trained ratings follow career paths as designated by Naval Reactors Each enlisted community falls into one of four Sea Shore Flow spectrum categories from sea-intensive to shore-intensive. With the exception of sea-intensive communities, decreasing shore duty billets and/or adding sea duty billets can be managed through increasing sea tour lengths. The following definition for each category is provided (number in parentheses indicate number of ratings in each category): Sea-Intensive (18) – Those ratings whose SSF career paths have been set to the maximum sea tour lengths allowed by policy resulting in 216 months (18 years) at sea over a 30-year time horizon. Sea-Centric (30) – Those ratings whose SSF career paths result in at least 180 months (15 years) but less than 216 months (18 years) at sea over a 30-year time horizon. Shore-Centric (29) – Those ratings whose SSF career paths result in less than 180 months (15 years) at sea over a 30-year time horizon. Shore-Intensive (7) – Those ratings that do not have career paths defined by SSF.

Sea Shore Flow Gap Analysis Systemic Gaps for Sea-Intensive Ratings Sea Shore Flow Balancing …reduces over 1900 systemic sea duty billet gaps Sea Shore Flow Balance Was Partially Restored by …realigning 1227 general duty (FAC-G) billets from non-sea-intensive ratings to sea-intensive ratings …adding ~800 in-rate shore duty billets for sea-intensive ratings in RMC’s, ATG’s, FRC’s, FRS’s, and NMC’s …reducing force structure as part of POM-13 Projected Systemic Sea Duty Billet Gaps Shore Duty Billets Needed to Balance SSF Stacked Bar Charts show projected systemic sea duty billet gaps for each sea-intensive rating Systemic sea duty billet gaps result from an insufficient number of shore duty billets to provide a sustainable rotation base for sea-intensive ratings Sailors in sea-intensive ratings serve the maximum sea tour length allowed by policy (i.e., five years for Sailors under 20 years of service and four years for Sailors over 20 years of service) After serving five or four years on sea duty, Sailors in sea-intensive ratings rotate to shore duty even if the community is undermanned at sea creating systemic sea duty billet gaps The drop in projected systemic gaps from FY13 to FY14 is due primarily to Sea Shore Flow balancing initiatives and POM actions

Sea Shore Flow Leaky Bucket Analogy Tour 4 Tour 1 Tour 3 Tour 2 Global Requirements Sea Shore Flow Model Projects flow from sea to shore, using - EPA Length of Service Spread - Continuation Rates - Gain Distributions Flow projection used to set tour lengths to sustain 100% manning. Accessions Continuation Rate Sea Shore Flow Model – The Leaky Bucket Analogy The “flow” of personnel through a 30-year career with alternating sea tours and shore tours is analogous to the “flow” of water through a series of leaky buckets. - Volume of the buckets represent the number of billets to be filled in each tour - Leaks in the bucket represent attrition (attrition rate = 1 - continuation rate) - Flow rate is proportional to the EPA (i.e., the larger the community, the greater the accession mission, the more people flowing through the buckets) - The time it takes to fill up each leaky bucket corresponds to the tour length (i.e., the time a Sailor can expect to spend on each sea tour) Therefore we can improve sea shore flow for an enlisted community by: - Closing the attrition valve (i.e., improve retention) - Opening the accession valve (i.e., increase the EPA thus increasing the number of Sailors flowing through the system) - Varying the size of each bucket (i.e., align the number of billets in each tour to ensure every sea billet is manned) Flow Rate  EPA Sea Tour 1 Shore Tour 1 Sea Tour 2 Attrition Rate Improve SSF by Increasing Retention and/or Accessions 9