Modelling Sector Demands P.R. Shukla. Long-term Supply & Demand Technology-Mix, Fuel-Mix, Emission, Cost Energy Sector Optimization Model (MARKAL) Long-Term.

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Presentation transcript:

Modelling Sector Demands P.R. Shukla

Long-term Supply & Demand Technology-Mix, Fuel-Mix, Emission, Cost Energy Sector Optimization Model (MARKAL) Long-Term Demand Projection Model Technology Shares End-use Demand TransportAgriculture Residential Commercial Industry UrbanRural Steel CementAluminumSugar Chlor-Alkali PaperBrick TextilesFertilizerOthers End-use Sub-Sector Models (AIM) Integrated Bottom-Up Modeling System

Indian Economy TransportAgriculture Residential Commercial Industry UrbanRural Steel CementAluminumSugar Chlor-Alkali PaperBrick TextilesFertilizerOthers End-use Sub-Sector Models (AIM) Sectors in Indian AIM/ENDUSE Model

AIM/ENDUSE Model for India: Demand Projections

Steel (million ton) Sectoral Demand Projection: Logistic Regression Demand Projection for Steel In ((Y t / Y o )/(1- Y t / Y o )) = a + bt t = time period Y t = level of demand at time t Y 0 = asymptotic limit for the demand Y t a,b : Parameters to be estimated exp(a + bt) 1+exp(a + bt) Y t = Y 0

GVA Charts

GDP

Industry GVA

Transport GVA

Commercial GVA

Agriculture GVA

PFCE

Steel Process Figure

Steel Demand Projection

Aluminum Demand Projection

Cement Process Figure

Cement Demand Projection

Paper Process Figure

Paper Demand Projection

Brick Process Figure

Brick Demand Projection

Fertilizer Demand Projection

Caustic Soda Process Figure

Caustic Soda Demand Projection

Soda Ash Demand Projection

Sugar Demand Projection

Textile Demand Projection

Transport Technology Options ROAD Vehicles PASSENGERGOODS 2-WheelerHeavy Truck (Diesel) 3-WheelerLight Truck (Diesel) Petrol CarHeavy Truck (CNG) Diesel CarLight Truck (CNG) CNG Car RAIL Vehicles Steam Loco Diesel Loco Electric Loco

Reference Energy System for Transport Gasoline Heavy Oil Diesel CNG Electricity Coal ATF 2-W 3-W 4-W Bus HCV LCV Diesel Train Electric Train Passenger Aircraft Steam Train Ship Road PKMS Road TKMS Rail TKMS Air PKMS Water TKMS Rail PKMS

Growth of Traffic in India Passenger (Billion PKms)Goods (Billion TKms)

Road Freight Demand Projections

Road Passenger Demand Projections

Air Passenger Transport Demand Projections

Ship Freight Transport Demand Projections

Rail Passenger Transport Demand Projections

Rail Freight Transport Demand Projections