JOHN A. HUGHES IS KENNETH WALTZ CORRECT, SHOULD IRAN GET THE BOMB ?

NEOREALIST LENS Branch of Realism Focus on power politics proposed by classical theorists ( Hobbes, Machiavelli, Thucydides ) Rise of Realist thinkers, E. H Carr & Hans. J Morgenthau E.H Carr’s The Twenty Year’s Crisis (1939): struggle for power, “haves & have-nots” Hans J. Morgenthau’s Politics among Nations: The Struggle for Power and Peace (1948): Human nature, statecraft, national security. Theory of International Politics (1979), Kenneth N. Waltz Does not focus on human nature, statecraft or ethics in foreign policy that Morgenthau proposed Focuses on structures Domestic structures “Relative Capabilities” (a states power)

NEOREALIST BALANCE OF POWER THEORY Peace and be achieved through Balance of Power If states build equal military and economic abilities Alliances Occurred during the Cold War ( bipolar system) Post Soviet Union ( multipolar system) Advocates for nuclear proliferation

ASSESSMENTS & CRITIQUES Waltz is Selective in his History Bipolar systems do not guarantee peace World War I (arms races and alliances) Waltz argues World War I was caused by “chain-ganging” and codependent alliances Not a satisfactory response Cold War was not a peaceful time Proxy wars Waltz ignores this

IRAN’S NUCLEAR PROGRAM: CURRENT CONTROVERSY Does Iran have a nuclear weapon ? Iran: No, its for peaceful purposes to make energy and be used for medical research. United States & West, Yes: Fearful they are working towards making a nuclear weapon. Cites intelligence reports and lack of IAEA cooperation and to suspend uranium enrichment. Also peaceful programs can be dual-purpose Why does Iran not Cooperate with the IAEA ? Fell they do, just the IAEA ask for too much that is does not ask from other states, especially Israel Other powers such as the US have known nuclear weapons and are not regulated or investigated by the IAEA What’s Wrong with Iran Getting a Nuclear Weapon? Gives them influence Could be used against Israel Could be used against the West.

EARLY NUCLEAR PROGRAM ( ) President Eisenhower “Atoms for Peace Program 1968 (signed 1970) Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) & 1974 signed Safeguards Agreement with International Atomic Energy Agency 1970s, France & Germany also provided Iran assistance 1974 India had a successful nuclear test, US national intelligence agency feared Iran developing a weapon France pulled back on a deal two build two reactors in Darkhovin, and Germany withdrew from building a pair or reactors in Bushehr 1979 Iranian Revolution West reversed support 1979Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini canceled program, deemed it “anti-Islamic”

RETURN TO NUCLEAR 1982 began to rebuild nuclear program 1985 CIA reported that Iran was interested in building a nuclear weapon, predicted it would take at least a decade 1989 Ayatollah Ali Khamenei comes to power. 1995, CIA report predicted by 2000 Iran could produce a weapon with foreign assistance Worked with Russia, N. Korea, China and Pakistan to help restart Bushehr and Darkhovin projects

START OF CONTROVERSY August 2002 Alireza Jafarzadeh of the National Council of Resistance of Iran declared two nuclear sites under construction Natanz (underground) Arak (heavy water) U.S intelligence agencies were aware of these facilities but reports remain classified Israeli intelligence was also aware International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) not aware of this Launched investigation fall Did Iran violate the NPT? No, when Iran signed countries were not required to notify IAEA until introducing nuclear material into facilities IAEA changed agreement in 1992, requiring notification during the planning stage. Iran did not sign the 1992 agreement until February 2003.

INTERNATIONAL CONCERN Fall 2003 EU-3 (France, Germany, United Kingdom) Wanted to take diplomatic route to answer questions about Iran’s nuclear program: Produced Tehran Declaration and Paris Agreement IAEA Reports Reported Iran failed to fully report all nuclear acquisitions and activities Found no evidence of nuclear program, but was unable to conclude if it was peaceful Election of President Ahmadinejad P5+1 China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom & United States July & December 2006 UN Security Council demanded Iran suspend its uranium enrichment, later that year imposed sanctions Cut off nuclear cooperation Froze assets of those tied to Iran’s nuclear program Resolutions from expanded/ reaffirmed these sanctions. Imposed harsher sanctions in 2010

IAEA REPORTS Iran was cooperative Could not prove or disprove nuclear weapon US National Intelligence could not find evidence of a nuclear program 2009 Iran became less cooperative with IAEA requests Increasingly started to enrich uranium 2010 Iran enriching enough uranium to make two nuclear weapons

IAEA REPORTS November 2011 IAEA Report Inspectors have credible evidence that Iran had been conducting experiments aimed at creating a nuclear bomb up until 2003 Identified “large explosive containment vessel” IAEA passes resolution expressing “deep and increasing concern” over the military possibility of Iran’s nuclear program Iran denies this 2012 February, announced Iran’s refusal to allow access to the Parchin plant, which was rumored to have high-explosive research program May, announced Iran was continuing to enrich uranium at a higher rate August, highlighted Iran’s continued increased enrichment

WHY IRAN SHOULD GET THE BOMB: A NEOREALIST POINT OF VIEW Kenneth Waltz, “Why Iran Should Get the Bomb:, Foreign Affairs, July/August 2010 Power Begs to be Balanced Israel is the monopoly in nuclear power in the region Israel bombed Iraq in 1981, and Syria in 2007 to prevent them from acquiring a nuclear weapon, could do the same to Iran Since Israel acquired a nuclear weapon, the region has been in conflict Unfounded Fears Iran is rational Countries are less hostile once they get nuclear capabilities (China, India and Pakistan)

BALANCE OF POWER DOES NOT APPLY The region would become less stable Questionable if Iran would not attack Israel Not all nuclear programs promise peace (N. Korea) Would Iran give a weapon to a terrorist group? Iran funds terrorist groups to spite the west and expand power Could be used as a threat Fails to evaluate Iranian-Syrian relations. Syria would want the technology Would Iran provide them the weapon ?

BALANCE OF POWER DOES NOT APPLY Waltz finds Iran to be rational This is correct, even Israeli intelligence agree to this Rational also curtail to ensure survival

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