Joseph A. Losco Ralph E. Baker AM GOV 2010 Joseph A. Losco Ralph E. Baker

PUBLIC OPINION Chapter 6

As You Read What is public opinion and why is it important? How is opinion best measured and how do we know these measures are reliable? What are some of the most basic features of American public opinion today? © 2010 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

UNDERSTANDING PUBLIC OPINION IN THE CONTEXT OF AMERICAN POLITICS American political culture reflects respect for the political values of liberty, individualism, equality of opportunity, and private property. These values support a limited government role in meeting individual needs. © 2010 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

UNDERSTANDING PUBLIC OPINION IN THE CONTEXT OF AMERICAN POLITICS Early political leaders were suspicious of popular attitudes and passions, but were not indifferent to them. Before scientific polling, political leaders gauged popular support from newspaper reports and editorials. Informal straw polls sampling public opinion became popular at the turn of the twentieth century. © 2010 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

UNDERSTANDING PUBLIC OPINION IN THE CONTEXT OF AMERICAN POLITICS In 1936, George Gallup issued the first scientifically designed presidential election poll based on marketing research techniques. Today, politicians use polling and survey research to gauge public opinion, shape policy, and manipulate political attitudes and behaviors. © 2010 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

HOW POLITICAL OPINIONS ARE FORMED We form many of the attitudes, values, and beliefs that shape our opinions through a process called political socialization. Political values form early in life Political outlook and behavior can change as we age Some age differences in politics are result of life-cycle effects – changes in our life circumstances Other differences, known as generational effects, result from unique issues and events confronting each generation © 2010 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

HOW POLITICAL OPINIONS ARE FORMED Agents of political socialization include the family, educational institutions, religious institutions, voluntary associations, and the media. © 2010 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

GROUP DIFFERENCES IN POLITICAL OPINIONS Race, ethnicity, gender, and geographical location can all shape a person’s political opinions. A significant gender gap exists in both voting behavior and party preference. Women more likely than men to support social programs, oppose policies involving force or aggression, and vote Democratic Attitudes may stem from early differences in socialization © 2010 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

GROUP DIFFERENCES IN POLITICAL OPINIONS Broad regional differences in political opinions exist in the United States. Southerners tend to be more conservative and more supportive of the military than those in the Northeast or on the West Coast. In recent years, southern states have become more conservative and Republican, while northeastern states have become more liberal and Democratic. © 2010 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

MEASURING PUBLIC OPINION Polls measure several dimensions of public opinion, including: Direction: an individual’s preference with respect to a particular issue Salience: the importance attached to an issue or topic Intensity: the strength with which a particular preference is held Stability: the consistency with which a particular preference is maintained over time Informational support: the level of information an individual has regarding an issue © 2010 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

MEASURING PUBLIC OPINION Polls take several popular forms. Benchmark surveys: measure the public’s knowledge and opinion of a candidate at a specific point in time Trial heat surveys: ask respondents which of two specific candidates they would vote for Tracking polls: supply current information by polling on a daily basis Push polls: a campaign provides voters with negative information about its opponent, then asks them questions about that candidate © 2010 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

POLLING TECHNIQUES Scientific polls use the mathematical laws of probability to ensure accuracy. Polls survey a random sample of the population to approximate the views of the whole group Simple random sampling gives everyone in a population an equal chance of being interviewed Because the United States is so large, national pollsters use systematic sampling to obtain a more accurate sample Sampling error refers to a poll’s degree of accuracy, expressed as a percentage. Polls that survey fewer individuals have a higher sampling error. © 2010 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

POLLING TECHNIQUES Changing technology presents a challenge for modern pollsters. Inexpensive Internet polling can be done with Web access and simple software Many people do not have land lines and do not list their cell phone numbers Call screening technology allows individuals to avoid pollsters Polls should avoid asking leading questions, which are phrased to produce a predetermined response. Question order is also important. © 2010 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

THE CONTENT OF AMERICAN PUBLIC OPINION Education is the strongest single predictor of political knowledge. Americans are better informed about institutions and processes of government than they are about people and players in the political arena. Americans are generally poorly informed about global affairs. Americans’ trust and confidence in government has fallen sharply since the late 1960s. Americans’ belief in the effectiveness of political participation has also declined. © 2010 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

THE CONTENT OF AMERICAN PUBLIC OPINION The dominant political ideologies in the United States are liberalism and conservatism. Liberalism supports a larger role for government in protecting and ensuring equal opportunity and civil liberties Conservatism supports a limited role for government in the economy and faith in free market mechanisms Americans traditionally have been pragmatic people, more interested in solving problems than in ideology. © 2010 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

PUBLIC OPINION AND PUBLIC POLICY Government policies sometimes do not reflect public opinion. Voters often do not have clear preferences on some issues Majority opinion may support policies detrimental to the rights of minorities Studies reveal a high degree of correspondence between public opinion and public policy. Substantial changes in opinion are almost always followed by policy change in the same direction. © 2010 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

PUBLIC OPINION AND CIVIC ENGAGEMENT TODAY The role that public opinion should play in a democracy remains as highly controversial today as it was when the Framers penned our Constitution. When public opinion is based on low levels of information, it is sometimes prone to manipulation. Some political scientists believe that public policy is best left in the hands of better informed elites. © 2010 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

Party Affiliation of Various Religious Groups © 2010 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

Gender Differences in Political Opinions © 2010 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

Variation in Political Culture Among the States © 2010 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

Political Knowledge – Then and Now © 2010 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

Confidence in U.S. Institutions © 2010 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

Can You Trust the Government to Do the Right Thing? © 2010 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

Do You Believe You Can Affect Political Change? © 2010 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

Public Tolerances for Advocates of Unpopular Positions © 2010 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

A Two-Dimensional View of Ideology © 2010 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

First 100 Days Presidential Approval © 2010 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

What Americans Believe © 2010 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

Hot or Not? Should political leaders allow poll results to influence their decisions? © 2010 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

Hot or Not? Should pollsters be prohibited from making unsolicited calls to your cell phone? © 2010 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

Get Involved Conduct an opinion poll of students in your class on an issue confronting your campus. First, try surveying a randomized selection by using a table of random numbers found in most statistics texts. Then, check the results by asking the entire class. (The larger the class, the better.) How closely does the sample track the results of the class as a whole? Be sure to pretest any questions to remove bias or ambiguity before you begin. © 2010 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

Get Involved Compare survey results on the same topic from a variety of sources; for example, presidential approval ratings. Select a sample of three or four national polls from such sources as the New York Times/CBS News, the Washington Post/ABC News, USA Today/Gallup. Keep track of the differences in percentages reported and try to account for such differences by examining the number of persons sampled, the time period in which the poll was executed, and the wording and context of the questions asked. © 2010 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

For Review What is public opinion and why is it important? Public opinion refers to those opinions held by private persons that governments find it prudent to heed. In a democracy, public opinion gives elected officials a sense of what citizens want and what they are willing to accept. © 2010 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

For Review How is opinion best measured and how do we know these measures are reliable? Opinion is best measured by scientific surveys using random samples in which every member of the population has a relatively equal probability of being selected for interview. The reliability of surveys depends on how well the sample is drawn and the quality of the questions. © 2010 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

For Review What are some of the most basic features of American public opinion today? Americans are not very trusting of their government and have lost confidence in elected leaders and institutions. Most consider themselves neither too liberal nor too conservative, and knowledge about politics is lower than many political theorists would desire. © 2010 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.