The British Electorate in 2015: The fragmentation of Britain’s Party system Professor Ed Fieldhouse University of Manchester Social Market Foundation Chalk and talk July 30th 2015

Decline of two-party system (GB only) Social Market Foundation Chalk and talk July 30th 2015

Effective number of parties since 1945 Source: Gallagher, 2010; 2015 calculated from vote/seat shares Social Market Foundation Chalk and talk July 30th 2015

Fragmentation of votes and seats Social Market Foundation Chalk and talk July 30th 2015

Conditions for fragmentation of electoral choice Slight increase in the 2 party vote but fragmentation of vote for other parties Long-term factors include – depolarisation of parties (distinctiveness of options) – disaffection with main parties/politicians Short-term specific factors – coalition government and prospect of another hung parliament – Lib Dem collapse – multi-level governance + referendum in Scotland (spill-over effects) Continuing buffer of electoral system to moderate electoral change Social Market Foundation Chalk and talk July 30th 2015

Lib Dem Collapse 1 Source Social Market Foundation Chalk and talk July 30th 2015

Lib Dem Collapse 3: where the Lib Dem 2010 voters went Social Market Foundation Chalk and talk July 30th 2015

Lib Dem Collapse 2 Social Market Foundation Chalk and talk July 30th 2015

Lib Dem collapse 4 Social Market Foundation Chalk and talk July 30th 2015

Lib Dem collapse 4 Social Market Foundation Chalk and talk July 30th 2015

Lib Dem collapse 5 Social Market Foundation Chalk and talk July 30th 2015

The impact of Scottish referendum 1 Source Social Market Foundation Chalk and talk July 30th 2015

The impact of Scottish referendum 2 Social Market Foundation Chalk and talk July 30th 2015

The impact of Scottish referendum 3 Social Market Foundation Chalk and talk July 30th 2015

The impact of Scottish referendum 4 Social Market Foundation Chalk and talk July 30th 2015

The impact of Scottish referendum 5

Expectations of a hung Parliament Decreases incentives to vote for major parties because parties can’t deliver fully on their platforms Increases incentives to vote for minor parties: By increasing the likelihood of influence in government (weakening strategic desertion); By increasing the incentive to maximise popular support of a favoured minor party to increase its influence Enhancing the relative utility of sincere expressive voting in face of lack of an unambiguous choice between potential governments By increasing chances of favourable ‘ideological balancing’ Social Market Foundation Chalk and talk July 30th 2015

Vote Proportions by Hung Parliament Expectation Hung Parliament likelyEven chanceMajority likely England Conservative Labour Liberal Democrat UKIP Green Party Scotland Conservative Labour Liberal Democrat Scottish National Party UKIP Green Party Wales Conservative Labour Liberal Democrat Plaid Cymru UKIP Green Party

Vote Choice by Hung Parliament Expectation (England, all voters) Social Market Foundation Chalk and talk July 30th 2015

Stratified Models: potential supporters (by party) – Social Market Foundation Chalk and talk July 30th 2015

With local close race by expectations HP interaction – Green voting Social Market Foundation Chalk and talk July 30th 2015

Summary 2015 election delivered unexpected result reflecting significant and (partly) unexpected impact of political shocks: – Lib Dem collapse helped the Tories win seats in England – Referendum helped SNP deny Labour most of Scotland – Expectations of hung parliament increased voting for minor parties