Shipping Markets A Time of Opportunity Nigel Bell Managing Director Bell Shipping Ltd., UK.

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Presentation transcript:

Shipping Markets A Time of Opportunity Nigel Bell Managing Director Bell Shipping Ltd., UK

OECD Growth / Dry Trade Growth 2 Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012 Source: Clarkson Research Services

3 Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012

Bulk Spot Earning ($/Day) 4 Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012 Source: Clarkson Research Services

5 Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012 Source: Clarkson Research Services

Capesize and Panamax values over the last 15 years 5 year old Capesize and Panamax Values 1 January 2003 to 20 th November 2012: Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012

Newbuilding, Resale, 5 year old and 10 year old Prices: Capesize Panamax YearNewbuildingResale5 year old 10 year oldNewbuildingresale5 year old10 year old

8 Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012

9 Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012

10 Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012

11 Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012

12 Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012

13 Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012

14 Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012

15 Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012

16 Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012

17 Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012

18 Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012

19 Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012

20 Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012

21 Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012

Capesize Fleet Trends 22 Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012 Source: Clarkson Research Services

Panamax Fleet Trends 23 Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012 Source: Clarkson Research Services

Handy/Handymax Fleet Trends 24 Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012 Source: Clarkson Research Services

25 Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012 Demolition

Dry Bulk Market Summary Over-ordering will hold back recovery Panamax will become out dated Only 5% of panamaxes transit the Panama Canal 2 markets for Panamax – Atlantic and Pacific Post-panamax & minicape will replace Panamax Panamax draft vs. Post-Panamax / Minicape draft 75,000 on 13.9mtrs vs. 106,000 on 13.5mtrs Low Newbuilding costs: Capesize $57.0m $46.5m Panamax $34.5m $26.5m Handymax $31.0m $24.5m Handysize $26.5m $21.5m 26 Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012

Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012 Source: Clarkson Research Services

Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November

Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November

Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November

Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012 Source: Clarkson Research Services

Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012 Source: Clarkson Research Services

Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” – November

Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012 Source: Clarkson Research Services

Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012 Source: Clarkson Research Services

Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November

Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November Source: Clarkson Research Services

Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012 Source: Clarkson Research Services

Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012 Source: Clarkson Research Services

Tanker Market Summary No New Oil Refineries planned in USA or Europe Virtually all New Oil Refineries are in Asia, India and China Reduction in Crude Oil Demand in USA and Europe Petroleum Product will move from Asia to USA and Europe – Likely Size “LR2 / Coated Aframax” Reduction in Demand for VLCC QUESTION: Shale Oil / Shale Gas Development in USA likely to make USA – Net Exporter of Energy ?? Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November

Acknowledgement and Special Thanks to the following Organisations for contributing information and statistical data: Clarkson Research Services Baltic Exchange Drewry Shipping Consultants 41 Shipping Academic Conferences “Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012