RADAR and Integration Bill Watts

Why - The Delay Cost - ATA numbers 86.5 million delay minutes $6.2 billion direct operating costs for airlines (exceeds projected 2005 industry losses!) Social Productivity cost

Weather Basics Drivers – Safety, Capacity, Efficiency/Emissions Primary Players - Meteorologist, Dispatcher, Pilot, & Controller Hazards – Turbulence, Lightning, Ice, Ash Solution Components – Forecast = BEFORE – Tactical/Now cast = DURING – Reporting = AFTER

Current State Weather causes a significant % of delays Weather impact - broadly defined Confusion between Display and weather hazards – Radar Color vs. Hazard – Inferred vs. Measured hazards Subjectivity – PIREPS (Wright Brothers) – Weather interpretation Greater hazard is probably economic and passenger delays since Safety Rules

Background – NASA/NCAR NASA/Delta Program – Enhanced Radar – Automated Turbulence Reports (Aircraft Response) NCAR/DAL/UAL Program – Robust forecast (GTG) – NEXRAD Turbulence Detection Algorithm (NTDA) – Automated Turbulence Report (Atmospheric State)

Two Levels of turbulence (magenta) Light-Moderate (speckled) Moderate + (solid) Initial E-Turb Display

NEXRAD Turbulence Detection Algorithm NTDA

System Goals More & Better Data to drive enhancements in: – Safety – Capacity – Operational Efficiencies/Emissions Leveraged technology – Recognize Limits of Current State - ATC chat room – Integrate the tools Policies to support the goals

Potential Benefits Safety IF EVERYONE IS STRAPPED IN WITH CARTS STOWED, NO ONE GETS HURT. KEY IS NOT TO CRY WOLF & F/A IGNORE WARNINGS Efficiency/Emissions – Assumptions – Range of primary variables - %, Altitude, Time Capacity – FAA FOCUS Overall - The solutions for all 3 drivers might appear to conflict, but BETTER WEATHER KNOWLEDGE CAN DRIVE BETTER SOLUTIONS FOR ALL 3.

Solutions Forecasting – Better forecasting models – NWS, NCAR, NOAA Coordination “Now-Casting”/Tactical – 5-10 minutes – Better detection of hazards – Blended picture of hazards Reporting – Standards – Data clarification Blended solution - Sensors, Data link, & Displays

Future Path Avoid Distractions – Airline priority of the day – Mergers, Fuel, Economy – FAA vs. Airline Goals Employ Political Will – FAA – NextGen 4D Weather Cube – Airlines – Validate Benefits Decide on Products & Data Handling – Airline, Government, Commercial or Mix – Cost burdens Make a Decision–Champion Needed

Issues Accuracy and Latency of data Common Picture for end users Different airline business models Infrastructure requirements STANDARDS & POLICIES