Quote of the day “Chance favors the prepared mind” Louis Pasteur 1854 Scenario Development Methods © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

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Presentation transcript:

Quote of the day “Chance favors the prepared mind” Louis Pasteur 1854 Scenario Development Methods © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved. This PowerPoint presentation may not be duplicated, distributed or excerpted without the University’s advance written consent.

Anticipating Change… To Make Better Decisions about the Future © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

Assessing Uncertainty Adapted From: “Framework Forecasting”, Peter Bishop Limit of Plausibility Past Present  Disruption ? ? ? © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

“ There are known knowns. There are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say there are things that we now know we don't know. But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we do not know we don't know. Donald Rumsfeld at NATO Headquarters, Brussels, Belgium June 6, 2002 Uncertainty & Ambiguity © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

Uncertainty and Ambiguity is when you are not sure what the variables are Ambiguity Uncertainty is when you’ve defined the variable but don’t know its value Source: Fast Company, February 2012, p. 66 © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

Four Levels of Uncertainty Source: Hugh Courtney, “Strategy Under Uncertainty”, HBR, 1997 (ambiguity) © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

The Effects of Uncertainty Source: Hugh Courtney, “Strategy Under Uncertainty”, HBR, 1997 © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

Scenario Development “Double Uncertainty Matrix” [Global Business Network] “Alt Futures” [Institute For The Future] “Aspirational Futures” [Institute for Alternative Futures] Deductive Method Inductive Methods © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

Scenario Development “Double Uncertainty Matrix” [Global Business Network] “Alt Futures” [Institute For The Future] “Aspirational Futures” [Institute for Alternative Futures] Deductive Method Inductive Methods © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

Creating a Scenario Matrix STEPS 1.Identify top 5 uncertainties (from a broader list) 2.Prioritize top 2 uncertainties to create a matrix 3.Define the conditions within each quadrant of the matrix 4.“Brand” each scenario to bring them to life 5.Identify Signposts Best when two key uncertainties will drive future outcomes © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

Scenario Matrices – An Example © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

Global Trade Dynamics & Resource Demand Climate Change Severity Governance of Marine Use in Arctic Ocean Global Oil Prices Safety of Other Trade Routes (Suez and Panama Canals) Possibility of a Major Arctic Shipping Disaster Scenario Matrices – An Example Identifying Uncertainties © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

Global Trade Dynamics & Resource Demand Climate Change Severity Governance of Marine Use in Arctic Ocean Global Oil Prices Safety of Other Trade Routes (Suez and Panama Canals) Possibility of a Major Arctic Shipping Disaster Scenario Matrices – An Example Prioritizing Uncertainties © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

14 Scenario Matrices – An Example Source: The Future of Arctic Marine Navigation in Mid-Century, Global Business Network, May 2008 (posted on Concourse) © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

15 Scenario Matrices – An Example Source: The Future of Arctic Marine Navigation in Mid-Century, Global Business Network, May 2008 (posted on Concourse) © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

Scenario Development “Double Uncertainty Matrix” [Global Business Network] “Alt Futures” [Institute For The Future] “Aspirational Futures” [Institute for Alternative Futures] Deductive Method Inductive Methods © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

Scenario Development Alt Futures Method GrowthConstraint Collapse Trans- formation Best when major technological or societal transitions are likely © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

Scenario Development “Double Uncertainty Matrix” [Global Business Network] “Alt Futures” [Institute For The Future] “Aspirational Futures” [Institute for Alternative Futures] Deductive Method Inductive Methods © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

Scenario Development Aspirational Futures Method Best when consensus on preferred futures exists (Business As Usual) (Challenge/ Hard Times) (Visionary) © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

© 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

Aspirational Futures Scenario Method Source: “Vulnerability 2030”, Institute for Alternative Futures © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

Aspirational Futures Scenario Method Source: Institute for Alternative Futures Finalizing the Stories © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

Steps for Scenario Development 1.Indentify key forces of change 2.Explore disruptions in each force 3.Map these forces / disruptions into 4 scenarios i.e. create comparative matrix 4.Develop “Stories” Brand identities Narratives / Highlights 5.Define Signposts AlphaDelta 1BetaDelta 2 © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

Creating A Comparative Matrix © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

Scenario Highlights – Delta (Visionary)  Scenario Highlights – Delta (Visionary)  Scenario Highlights– Beta (Challenge/Hard Times)  Finalizing the Stories – Scenario Highlights Source: Institute for Alternative Futures Scenario Highlights– Alpha (Business as Usual)  © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

What We Learned Today Double Uncertainty Matrix Method Best when two uncertainties will drive future outcomes Alt Futures Scenario Method Best when major technological or societal transitions are likely Aspirational Futures Scenario Method Best when consensus on preferred futures exists © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

Team Exercise Get with your team and begin to assess the pros and cons of each scenario development method for your foresight project. Complete the Scenario Methods Evaluation Worksheet and bring to the Scenario Development Workshop in the next class © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

30 Next Class Scanning Round 3 Due Friday by Noon Read: “Learnings From The Long View” Monday - Scenario Development Workshop Meet in Giovanini Commons Plan to work as a team to develop scenarios for your foresight project Bring Laptops, Notebooks, Project Materials 30 © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.