The Economy Today: What our measures tell us about the current recession Keith Hall Commissioner Bureau of Labor Statistics March 05, 2010.

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Presentation transcript:

The Economy Today: What our measures tell us about the current recession Keith Hall Commissioner Bureau of Labor Statistics March 05, 2010

Civilian unemployment rate, Seasonally adjusted, percent NOTE: Shaded areas represent recessions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). NBER has not yet determined an endpoint for the recession that began in December SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey, March 5, Unemployment rate = 9.7% in February 2010

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Current Indicators

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Industries

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Household Survey

Unemployment rates for persons 25 years and older by educational attainment, Seasonally adjusted, percent NOTE: Shaded areas represent recessions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). NBER has not yet determined an endpoint for the recession that began in December SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey, March 5, Bachelor's degree and higherSome college or associate degree High school graduates, no college Less than a high school diploma

Unemployment rates for whites, blacks or African Americans, and persons of Hispanic or Latino ethnicity, Seasonally adjusted, percent NOTE: Shaded areas represent recessions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). NBER has not yet determined an endpoint for the recession that began in December SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey, March 5, Whites Hispanic or Latino ethnicity Blacks or African Americans

Alternative measures of labor underutilization, Seasonally adjusted, percent NOTE: Shaded areas represent recessions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). NBER has not yet determined an endpoint for the recession that began in December SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey, March 5, U-3 Unemployment rate U-2 U-1 U-4 U-5 U-6

Unemployment rate and long-term unemployment rate, Seasonally adjusted, percent NOTE: Shaded areas represent recessions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). NBER has not yet determined an endpoint for the recession that began in December SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey, March 5, Unemployment rate Long-term unemployment rate Long term unemployment rate = 4.0% in February 2010

Comparisons with Prior Recessions

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Recession Stages

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29 SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics survey, March 5, 2010.

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SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics survey, March 5,

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics survey, March 5, ** The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) denoted recessions starting in January 1980 and July 1981.