THE FUTURE OF THE WORKFORCE: OUTLOOK AND CHALLENGES Dr. Mike Walden Reynolds Distinguished Professor North Carolina State University 1

THE NATIONAL ECONOMY GDP and Employment: back to pre- recessionary levels Growth rates have accelerated Confidence up 2

REASONS FOR IMPROVEMENT Rebound from initial slow growth Housing improvement Wealth upswing Continued FED stimulus 3

AND, THE PLUNGE IN GAS PRICES Like a $250 billion tax cut Doubling of US oil supply in six years Slowing of usage growth in Asia 4

THE HOUSING MARKET IMPROVEMENT, BUT….. PRE-RECESSIONARY LEVELS NOT FORESEEN WILL THE MILLENNIALS BUY? 5

INFLATION AND INTEREST RATES INFLATION IS STILL TAME RATES ARE EDGING UP STILL HISTORICALLY LOW 6

POLICY IN 2015: ALL EYES ON THE FEDERAL RESERVE MORTGAGE BUYING HAS STOPPED RAISING SHORT-TERM INTEREST RATES IS NEXT WHEN? 7

NATIONAL OUTLOOK 3% GDP GROWTH 3 MILLION PAYROLL JOBS 5.0% TO 5.5% HEADLINE JOBLESS RATE INFLATION AND INTEREST RATES STILL LOW 8

NATIONAL ECONOMIC ISSUES Missing middle income jobs Slow wage and salary gains Technological unemployment Rising dependency rate Federal fiscal balance Infrastructure improvement 9

NORTH CAROLINA ECONOMY 10

NC PAYROLL JOB GROWTH 11

ALTERNATIVE MEASURES OF THE NORTH CAROLINA UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 2007: HEADLINE, 4.5%; U5, 5.6%; U6, 8.5% 12

MIDDLE-INCOME JOBS HAVE BEEN THE SLOWEST GROWING DURING THE RECOVERY 13

GEOGRAPHIC ECONOMIC INEQUALITY ALSO CONTINUES IN NORTH CAROLINA Raleigh/Cary 15.8% Charlotte14.1% Asheville 10.4% North Carolina 9.5% Durham-CH 8.6% Wilmington 8.2% Burlington 7.9% Greenville 6.3% Greensboro-HP 5.7% Winston-Salem 5.4% Jacksonsville 4.6% Hickory3.2% Goldsboro2.1% Fayetteville 0.6% Rocky Mount -2.0% 14

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NORTH CAROLINA OUTLOOK CONTINUED GROWTH 125,000 PAYROLL JOBS 5.0% TO 5.5% HEADLINE JOBLESS RATE 16

RALEIGH-CARY METRO OUTLOOK 17

ONE OF THE MOST DYNAMIC, FAST- GROWING REGIONS IN THE COUNTRY IN TOP TEN OF LEADING TECH CENTERS #2 IN TECH JOBS ADDED A TECHNOLOGY- EDUCATIONAL COMPLEX 18

RECENT GROWTH 20,000 PAYROLL JOBS ADDED IN 2014 HEADLINE JOBLESS RATE IN 4% RANGE EXISTING HOME SALES UP 3% 19

KEY 2015 PROJECTIONS 25,000 PAYROLL JOBS 4.0% TO 4.5% HEADLINE JOBLESS RATE HOUSING SALES UP 15% 20

LONG-RUN: A “RACEHORSE” REGION WAKE COUNTY WILL DOUBLE IN POPULATION BY 2050 TREMENDOUS IMPACT OF CHATHAM PARK CONGESTION, MOBILITY, AND COST CHALLENGES 21

COUNTY GROWTH RATES,

WORKFORCE ISSUES 23

CHANGING SHARES OF NC JOBS 24

GAINS IN NC AND US EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT (% POINT CHANGE FOR ADULTS OVER 25 YEARS OF AGE ) 25

DISTRIBUTION OF EMPLOYMENT BY TASK CLASSIFICATION 26

TECHNOLOGICAL UNEMPLOYMENT OCCUPATIONS THAT COULD DISAPPEAR BY 2050: SECURITY GUARDS DISHWASHERS FAST FOOD WORKERS RECEPTIONISTS CASHIERS LOAN OFFICERS WAITERS RETAIL SALESPERSONS 27

POTENTIAL NEW OCCUPATIONS IN HOUSEHOLD MANAGEMENT REPAIR AND MAINTENANCE OF TECH. EQUIPMENT GLOBAL INTERACTION DATA MANAGEMENT AND ANALYSIS INTERNATIONAL TOURISM 28

IMPLICATIONS HALF OF OCCUPATIONS WILL LOSE JOBS DUE TO TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCES NEED A “RAPID RESPONSE EDUCATION SYSTEM” * FAST TRAINING * MONITORING TRENDS * ACCESSIBLE TO ADULTS CHANGING CAREERS 29