NWS Climate Products and Services to Support Decision Makers Committee for Climate Analysis, Monitoring, and Services October 30, 2007 Fiona Horsfall NOAA/National Weather Service Climate Services

Outline NWS Climate ServicesNWS Climate Services How valuable are climate forecasts?How valuable are climate forecasts? –Climate forecast skill –Extrapolation of long-term trends What’s next?What’s next?

NWS MissionNWS Mission Documented customer requirements forDocumented customer requirements for –More easily understood products –Regional and local climate products and services A comprehensive operations manualA comprehensive operations manual PartnershipsPartnerships Climate record stewardshipClimate record stewardship NWS CLIMATE SERVICES NWS has a vast and robust Climate Services Program

Extensive staff trainingExtensive staff training –Climate variability and change –Data stewardship –Customer service Standardized web pagesStandardized web pages –Data web tools –Copious help information for customers New forecast productsNew forecast products –Local 3-Month Temperature Outlook (L3MTO), with others coming soon NWS CLIMATE SERVICES NWS has a vast and robust Climate Services Program

Local 3-Month Temperature Outlook - L3MTO

L3MTO

L3MTO

L3MTO

L3MTO

L3MTO

L3MTO Formats

L3MTO Probability of Exceedance

Why is L3MTO Useful? If large-scale forecast has skill, uses forecast – downscaled to stationIf large-scale forecast has skill, uses forecast – downscaled to station Adjusts forecast to take into account local climate (micro climates)Adjusts forecast to take into account local climate (micro climates) If no skill in large-scale forecast, adjusts local climatology to incorporate local trendIf no skill in large-scale forecast, adjusts local climatology to incorporate local trend

A Quick Note about Climate Forecast Skill What do we know? There are important long-term trends in the mean temperature and precipitation climates of North America.There are important long-term trends in the mean temperature and precipitation climates of North America. Primary sources of skill for North AmericaPrimary sources of skill for North America –Trend –ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation)

Variations of the Earth’s surface temperature Globalmean14.0°C Trenberth (2004)

Weak Trends Livezey et al, 2007

a) 30-Year Hinge Temperature Trend (°C/30 yrs) - JFM b) 30-Year Hinge Precipitation Trend (cm/30 yrs) - OND <-2 -2 to to to to to to to to to 2 >+2 < to to to to to to to to to 11.4 >11.4 Strong Trends

Forecast Skill Heidke Skill ScoreHeidke Skill Score % improvement over expected% improvement over expected Count EC (equal chances) as a hitCount EC (equal chances) as a hit Forecasts become usable with scoreForecasts become usable with score > +25 > +25 Smaller cost/loss ratio – can use lower scoreSmaller cost/loss ratio – can use lower score Hits: Forecasts correct Expected: Climatology Total: Total forecasts Hits – Expected Total - Expected

3-Month Temperature Forecast Skill Non-ENSO Years Skill Livezey and Timofeyeva, 2007

3-Month Precipitation Forecast Skill Non-ENSO Years Skill? Livezey and Timofeyeva, 2007 Skill - A little in places

Temperature & Precipitation Skill Strong ENSO Years Skill Livezey and Timofeyeva, 2007

A Quick Note about Global Climate Change In order to credibly project future scenarios of high-impact weather-related events, a model must credibly treat them in the pastIn order to credibly project future scenarios of high-impact weather-related events, a model must credibly treat them in the past Existing climate models cannot reproduce weather scenarios adequately over the recent (30- year) historical recordExisting climate models cannot reproduce weather scenarios adequately over the recent (30- year) historical record Thus they cannot credibly produce future weather scenarios of other than the gross geographic and seasonal distribution of mean surface temperatureThus they cannot credibly produce future weather scenarios of other than the gross geographic and seasonal distribution of mean surface temperature This applies to all spatial scales, including regionalThis applies to all spatial scales, including regional

Climate Model Capabilities DJF JJA ? ? ?

NOAA Online Weather Data NOWData Data query system for basic climate statistics Data query system for basic climate statistics 30+ years 30+ years 3,800 surface observing stations (non- airport) 3,800 surface observing stations (non- airport) Conterminus U.S., AK, HI, PR, USVI, Guam Conterminus U.S., AK, HI, PR, USVI, Guam Ref: Bob Leffler NWS CLIMATE SERVICES

The Training Program is available at Climate Services Professional Development Series (PDS) Instructional Components of Climate Services PDS available to non-NWS users: – –Online tutorials – –Webcasts – –Teletraining NWS CLIMATE SERVICES Training

Downloadable free NWS fact sheets Available at: NWS Climate Services

Will be Precipitation Local 3-month Precipitation Outlook (L3MPO) NWS Climate Services Will be Precipitation

For Example: Pacific Islands – Sea-level forecasts Pacific Islands – Sea-level forecasts Florida – Forecasts for “storminess” or the number of storms expected to occur during the dry season Florida – Forecasts for “storminess” or the number of storms expected to occur during the dry season Baltimore, Maryland – Forecast for the likelihood of a major winter snow event Baltimore, Maryland – Forecast for the likelihood of a major winter snow event NWS Climate Services 3-Month Outlook of Local El Niño/La Niña Impacts (3MOLEI) El Niño/La Niña Outlooks based on local El Niño/La Niña signal

Summary NWS has robust Climate ServicesNWS has robust Climate Services NWS local forecast products provide services to the publicNWS local forecast products provide services to the public Climate forecasts offer some skill, but not perfectClimate forecasts offer some skill, but not perfect We are working on new products and services We are working on new products and services Contact local forecast offices for more information Contact local forecast offices for more information