NOAA CLIMAS NASA EOS NSF SAHRA NOAA GAPP Human Dimensions Climate and Society: Working with a Nation of Stakeholders Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, University of Arizona Holly C. Hartmann NASA HyDIS Raytheon Synergy

Issue: So Many Stakeholders! Continental Scale: Focus of climate modelers Watershed/Local Scale: Where impacts happen Where stakeholders exist Different Scales (time & space) Different Issues Different Stakeholders

Concerns for Climate Science Enterprise Transferability Scalability Changed decisions and decision processes Public support for climate research Enabling system-wide change Sustainability National Perspectives

Concerns for Climate Science Enterprise Transferability Scalability Changed decisions and decision processes Public support for climate research Enabling system-wide change Sustainability National Perspectives: NOAA RISA Program Integrative: researchers/stakeholders, interdisciplinary, end-to-end Participatory, Iterative: responsive to stake- holder concerns On-going Process: mutual capacity building & sustainable legacy products Products: link variability, impacts, response options Equitable: outcomes benefit participants & equitably so

Stakeholder Interactions:Multiple Techniques One-on-One Interviews Town Hall Meetings Conferences and Workshops Product Evaluation Group Discussions & Training

Poor interactions with users affects: opportunities for future work credibility of agencies, institutions and products “What are your motives?” (agenda) “How long is your project really going to last?” (failed promises of past projects) “What did you do with the last survey?” (checking your responsiveness) Lessons from Stakeholders Building Expectations and Trust Building trust requires repetition & responsiveness Concerns: agendas, science will be used to hurt them Effective stakeholder integration  generate support for science funding & programs

Efficiency Work with hydropower agencies & other high-value clients Develop customized evaluation tools Transfer to agencies Equity Also work with stakeholders affected by changing supplies & policies Develop tools for knowledge development and diverse decision processes Provide on-going support of research products and tools Impact Work with regulatory & policy agencies Inform water supply policy via peer-reviewed science & policy analysis Project Objectives Affect Tactics

Common across all groups: climate vs. weather Uninformed, mistaken about forecast interpretation Understand implications of “normal” vs. “EC” vs. “unknown” forecasts Use of forecasts limited by lack of demonstrated forecast skill Unique among stakeholders Relevant forecast variables, regions (location & scale), seasons, lead times, performance characteristics Technical sophistication: base probabilities, distributions, statistics Role of of forecasts in decision making Common across many, but not all, stakeholders Have difficulty distinguishing between “good” & “bad” products Have difficulty placing forecasts in historical context Role & Use of Climate Info & Forecasts

Re-Interpreted Forecast Products Often Wrong

New Formats: Local Seasonal Temp Outlooks

Forecast formats affect the ease, accuracy, and reliability of interpretation - and correct interpretation is essential. Climate Test Bed: process for ensuring communication effectiveness

Initially for NWS CPC climate forecasts Adding water supply forecasts Six elements in our webtool: Exploring Forecast Progression Forecast Interpretation – Tutorials Historical Context Forecast Performance Use in Decision Making Details: Forecast Techniques, Research

Historical Context for Forecasts: Analogs

A Frequency of Actual Forecasts F D B E C Forecast Forecast # Issued Coverage A JFM JJAS B JFM JJAS C JFM ONDJ D ASO ONDJ E JFM AMJJ F ASO DJFMAM temperature precipitation

Temperature: Warm Precipitation: Dry Will forecasts warn me of an impending ‘critical’ event? Given a ‘critical’ forecast, can I trust it? Probability of Detection False Alarm Rate Forecasts issued JFM, covering JJAS

Issues for Stakeholders - too much information - can’t discern ‘good’ from ‘bad’ information Facilitating Information Intermediaries & Users

Ease of Use  Profile and Projects: save a history of your work on each "project", so you can return to your work any time, easily repeat past analyses using updated data. Facilitating Information Intermediaries & Users Accessibility  Report Generation create PDF reports of your analyses for non-Internet users automatically includes legends, data sourcing, contact information, caveats, explanations sections for user-customized (value-added) comments Ease of Use  Automated Alerts: using ‘push’ technology to monitor conditions and prompt special notification

Part 1 -- Alert Detection and Notification Obtain real-time data Test against thresholds Notify individuals: , cell phone Automated Threshold Alert System Clarify thresholds Alert Levels Yellow = Hiccup Orange = Heartburn Red = Heart Attack

Automated Threshold Alert System Clarify thresholds Part 2 – Respond, Report, Review: Interactive Website Summarize threshold exceedance events: ‘Live Forms’ Community assessment of event, cause, impacts: ‘Live Forms’ Archive stable ‘.pdf’ reports for annual review Self-management of projects, without software maintenance Part 3 – New Possibility: Combine CLIDDSS and Alert System Monitor products in a portfolio, send ‘alerts’ when condition(s) meet thresholds, initiate field reports Field reports via ‘Live Web Form’ or cell phone text messages Connects human observations with automated gauges, expands the ‘observation’ network

Lessons Learned: Decision Support Tools Stakeholders Information needs, understanding, access Social Science Effective communication Natural Science Forecast skill, interpretation Computer Science Web programming Transferable, scalable tools are possible! Focus on knowledge development, not just data & information. Interactive webtools require major commitment and resources. Prototypes insufficient! Stakeholders need reliable tools, which require solid software foundation, organized development, sustainability for maintenance and expansion.

The Human Dimension of Integrated Research ??? 1. Good Intentions 2. Momentary Integration 3. Regression Physical Science Social Science Stake holders Building expectations: affects credibility of agencies, research Requires incentives, infrastructure, continuity, stability

Climate and Society: Whose Messages Get Through?