Demographic Trends Affecting Cities Population Change

Outline  Trends  Implications for cities  Checklist for cities  Information resources

Trends  Minnesota continues to grow  1 million more people by 2030; 2 million more by 2060  Midwest neighbors and other cold weather states seeing population declines

Trends State Demographer projection Minnesota population growth through 2060

Trends  population growth  7 of 13 metro counties in fastest 100 growing of the nation  40% of state’s population lives in metro suburbs; 57% of growth  34% of state’s population lives in greater MN; only 13% of growth

Trends Met Council and State Demographer estimates. Suburbs and collar counties account for less than half of population but 77% of growth

Trends  Regional trends projected through 2030:  Twin Cities will grow by 800,000  32% more people will live in central lakes region—mostly older adults  Central lakes region only region to see significant growth in residents under 19  North and northwest regions will grow by 14%, reversing long trend of no growth  In south and southwest regions, the only population growth will be among residents over 65

Implications for Cities  Cities with no growth or population loss  School closures  Business closures; job losses  Declining tax base  Less investment in infrastructure  No new services  Pressure to find new ways to deliver services  Difficulty filling elected and appointed positions

Implications for Cities  Cities expecting growth:  New demand for services and infrastructure  New kinds of service needs depending on changing population (e.g. more older residents, more ethnic diversity)  Finding fair distribution of burden for paying for growth among new and old residents

Implications for Cities  Density issues  Trends of people moving to low-density areas (e.g. lakes areas)  Cost of service delivery can be higher in low- density areas  Urban-style development in formerly low- density areas increases pressure for expanding infrastructure and services

Implications for Cities  City employment  City employment affected by whether region is stable, growing, or shrinking in population  Declining areas will face difficulties filling vacancies  Growing cities will face competition from private sector to find new employees  Aging and ethnic diversity trend complicate employment issues

Checklist for Cities  What is role of city in region  What are factors in people’s location decisions  How do we enter partnerships with other entities to provide services

Checklist for Cities  What are population projections  How will role of city affect growth trend  Can we change the future  How will need and demand for services change  Can we partner with other entities to meet those demands  What are future housing needs; what type of housing will residents want

Checklist for Cities  What will be impact on property values and tax base  How does size and composition of our workforce compare to future needs  What is retirement pattern of current workers  What is our workforce plan to recruit and retain staff

Resources  Office of State Demographer   League of Minnesota Cities 