Who Makes The Pros? What are the chances?

What are the odds?  What good young athlete doesn't dream of playing pro sports? The allure is intoxicating, especially for the talented, and it can warp judgment.  In fact, high school players who reach the pros are almost as rare as lottery winners, so virtually every student-athlete should have a backup: an education. That's a key message of the movie Coach Carter, yet it's easy to ignore in a society that focuses more on immediate gains than enduring ones.  So what are the probabilities of a pro career? Below are some numbers, from the NCAA. They show the chance of getting drafted by a major league team, not of playing, so the true odds are even lower:

Men’s Basketball  High school senior players who go on to play NCAA men's basketball: Less than one in 35, or 2.9 percent.  NCAA senior players drafted by an NBA team: Less than one in 75, or 1.3 percent.  High school senior players eventually drafted by an NBA team: About three in 10,000, or 0.03 percent.  That's roughly the chance of getting four of a kind in the first round of draw poker.

Women’s Basketball  High school senior players who go on to play NCAA women's basketball: About three in 100, or 3.1 percent.  NCAA senior players drafted by a WNBA team: About one in 100, or 1.0 percent.  High school senior players eventually drafted by a WNBA team: About one in 5,000, or 0.02 percent.  That's the chance that a killer asteroid will destroy civilization in the next century, according to Princeton astronomers.

Football  High school senior players who go on to play NCAA men's football: About one in 17, or 5.8 percent.  NCAA senior players drafted by an NFL team: About one in 50, or 2.0 percent.  High school senior players eventually drafted by an NFL team: About nine in 10,000, or 0.09 percent.  That's about the chance you have an IQ above 150, as measured by the Stanford-Binet test. The average IQ of Ph.D. students is 130.

Baseball  High school senior players who go on to play NCAA men`s baseball: Less than three in 50, or 5.6 percent  NCAA senior players drafted by a Major League Baseball (MLB) team: Less than eleven in 100, or 10.5 percent.  High school senior players eventually drafted by an MLB team: About one in 200, or 0.5 percent.  Drafted baseball players almost always go to a minor league team. These teams abound; there are over 150 of them, compared to 30 in the majors. The big leagues have 750 players, yet the 2004 draft alone took 1,500.  Hence some estimate that only one in 33 minor leaguers ever makes it to the pros. If that's correct, the chance of a high school player making the big leagues is one in 6,600, or percent.  That's roughly the chance of a thief guessing your PIN number on the first try.

Men’s Ice Hockey  High school senior players who go on to play NCAA men's ice hockey: Less than thirteen in 100, or about 12.9 percent.  NCAA senior players drafted by an NHL team: Less than 1 in 24, or 4.1 percent.  High school senior players eventually drafted by an NHL team: About one in 250, or 0.4 percent.  That's the chance of flipping heads eight times in a row.

Men’s Soccer  High school senior players who go on to play NCAA men's soccer: Less than three in 50, or 5.7 percent.  NCAA senior players drafted by a Major League Soccer (MLS) team: Less than one in 50, or 1.9 percent.  High school senior players eventually drafted by an MLS team: About one in 1,250, or 0.08 percent.  That's about the chance that tomorrow will be February 29.  from:  sources: and the Josephson Institute's PVWH Sportsmanship Newsleter, Feb. 05

NCAA Study Conclusion “Sadly though, it comes as a rude surprise to many athletes yearning for a professional sports career to learn that the odds against success are astronomically high. Approximately 1 percent of NCAA men’s basketball players and 2 percent of NCAA football players are drafted by NBA or NFL teams – and just being drafted is no assurance of a successful professional career. “Student-athletes” whose sole and now failed objective was to make the pros suddenly find themselves in a world that demands skills their universities did not require them to learn.”  reprinted from