Module 4: Introduction to the assessment based national dialogue exercise ILO, 2013

Key questions What are the objectives of the ABND exercise? What are the main steps of the ABND process? How do we ensure that all stakeholders are involved from the outset? Step 1 – Building the assessment matrix Step 2 – Costing policy options using the RAP model Step 3 – Finalization and endorsement What are the strengths and limitations of ABND?

Objectives of ABND ABND identifies the existing situation and gaps in the social protection system It develops recommendations for achieving the SPF How do we achieve the SPF and make it a reality for the whole population of a country?

 Do all residents have access to essential health care, including maternity care?  Do all children enjoy basic income security, providing access to nutrition, education, care, and any other necessary goods and services?  Do all persons in active age who cannot earn sufficient income, enjoy basic income security, particularly in cases of sickness, unemployment, maternity, disability?  Do all older persons have basic income security? Making the SPF a reality Four basic guarantees:

Some countries may have the Floor for Health, e.g. Thailand But gaps for children, working age people or the elderly still exist Poor Rest of informal sectorFormal sector Level of protection Population Making the SPF a reality

Steps of ABND 1. What is the social security situation? 2. How far are we from the achievement of the SPF? -> gaps, issues 3. What should be done to complete the SPF? 4. How much would it cost today and in the future? 5. Can the Government afford it? Do we need to increase the fiscal space? 6. How to ensure that the recommendations are endorsed and listened to? 7. How to advocate for the SPF as a whole or specific recommendations?

ABND FACTSHEET Step 1 – Building the assessment matrix including the identification of priority recommendations Step 2 – Rapid Assessment Protocol to estimate the cost of implementing the social protection provisions Step 3 – Finalisation of the assessment report for endorsement and further action by the higher levels of government Steps of ABND

1. Inventory of schemes (Jun 2011) 2. Draft Assessment Matrix (Jul 2011) 3. Dialogue # 1 on ABND matrix (Aug 2011) 4. Translation of policy recommendations into practical scenarios 5. Dialogue # 2 on proposed scenarios (Nov 2011, Feb 2012) 6. Data collection for the RAP protocol and costing of the scenarios (Nov Mar 2012) 7. Dialogue # 3 on results of costing (Mar 2012); Training on costing (May 2012) 9. Endorsement by UN/RTG joint team and presentation to the government (Oct-Nov 2012) 8. Finalization of Costing, Fiscal space, Writing ABND report (May-Aug 2012) Step 1 Step 2 Step 3 The process in Thailand Steps of ABND

ABND is a participatory approach which should involve all relevant stakeholders It entails bilateral consultations, tripartite workshops, and technical seminars Thailand: ABND conducted by Royal Thai Government / UN team on social protection, co-chaired by Ministry of Social Development and Human Security and ILO Indonesia: ABND conducted by United Nations Partnership for Development Framework (UNPDF) sub-working group on SPF, led by ILO and coordinated by Bappenas Working with stakeholders with political power and expertise can avoid potential blockage Involving stakeholders

Workers’ and employers’ organizations Civil society Local governments National Statistics Office, academicians UN agencies involved in SPF (ILO, UNICEF, WHO, UNESCAP, UNFPA, UNAIDS, UNESCO, UNWOMEN, UNDP, WFP), World Bank, ADB, other development partners Line ministries (Labour, Health, Social Welfare, Planning, Interior, Education, Finance, Rural Development, Women’s Affairs, etc.), social security institutions

Step 1: Building the assessment matrix SPF objectives Govt. strategy Existing provisions Policy gaps Implement- ation issues Recomm- endations Health Children Working age Elderly Four SPF guarantees Identifying existing situation in the country Identifying policy gaps and implementation issues, addressing which would complete the SPF Priority policy options, decided through national dialogue

Policy gaps: Missing legislation or policy leading to a part of the population being excluded from the complete SPF For e.g. Only formal sector workers and very poor people are entitled to social health protection There is no unemployment protection scheme for workers in case of loss of employment Only formal sector workers are entitled to a child allowance for pre-school children Step 1: Building the assessment matrix

Implementation issues: Despite existing policies or legislation, people do not have effective access to entitlements For e.g. Despite universal access to social health protection, people from rural areas have limited protection due to poor health care infrastructure Enforcement of the Social Security Act is low, due to employers not registering their staff and a lack of resources to reach out to informal sector workers

From Step 1 to Step 2 There are 2 types of recommendations Recommendations to introduce social insurance, work on coordination between schemes and operations, qualitative recommendations to improve quality of services We need to conduct further studies We can use the RAP Protocol Recommendations to introduce non-contributory benefits, increase non-contributory benefit amounts, extend coverage

Step 2: Rapid Assessment Protocol RAP is a simplified Excel tool developed by ILO to estimate the cost of providing SPF benefits (for health, children, working age and the elderly) over a 5-10 year period

Labour market (EAP) Demographic data (POP) Macroeconomic data (ECO) General government operations (GGO) Costing of benefits Summary and results 1. Data collection 2. Estimated cost of benefits in absolute terms, as % of GDP, and as % of government expenditure 3. Projected cost of combined benefit packages Step 2: Rapid Assessment Protocol

Cost of implementing the scenarios is calculated using RAP worksheets Recommendations are translated into scenarios, i.e. specific social protection policy options Estimated cost can be linked to fiscal space (GDP and government budget) to check their feasibility Step 2: Rapid Assessment Protocol

At the end of Step 2, we have the cost of implementing SPF benefits expressed as % of GDP (e.g. Thailand) Step 2: Rapid Assessment Protocol

Two possible cases: Case 1: The new government budget is balanced and fiscal space is available in the country. Case 2: The new government budget is in deficit. New fiscal space needs to be created through changes in budget allocations, increase in government revenues through additional taxes, etc. In both cases, especially case 2, the government needs to be convinced that investing in the SPF is good for the country and for social and economic growth. Cost of implementing scenarios over 5-10 years (Benefits worksheet) Projected government budget (GGO) New government budget + = Step 2: Rapid Assessment Protocol

Step 3: Finalization and endorsement Presenting to higher levels of Government with a ‘champion’ Government may endorse or ‘test’ some recommendations or conduct further studies: actuarial legal human capacity Finalising the ABND report with stakeholders

Advocating to policy-makers can be done with: Evidence from other countries Economic models to demonstrate the expected impact of policy options on reduction in poverty and inequality, increase in growth, productivity and employability Financial models to assess the return on social investment Communication and awareness generation among people, government, civil society, social partners Step 3: Finalization and endorsement

Strengths of ABND It provides a coordinated, holistic and coherent approach to the development of social protection in a country It initiates national dialogue on social security strategy, SPF, priority policy options, problems in providing social protection to all and ways to address the issues It provides evidence on the feasibility of different policy options It can serve as a baseline for monitoring of SPF implementation (within the national framework)

Limitations of ABND The analysis conducted under Step 1 is simplistic and does not go into details on operations and institutional capacities The social dialogue usually takes place at the technical level and higher-level policy makers or “champions” may need to be involved during Step 3 The RAP is based on some assumptions leading to rough estimates of future costs; additional actuarial studies are needed for the finalisation of the design of proposed schemes