Union Budget B Sai Kumar Swamy Triumphant Institute of Management Education P Ltd

Budget Basics - 1  Budget includes  Previous Financial Year  Economic Review  Assessment of Budget – Targets vs. Actuals  Next Financial Year  Economic Forecast  Revenue and Expenditure Targets  Components of Revenue and Expenditure

Budget Basics - 2  Constitutional provisions  Article 112  Budget is mandatory  Article 265  No Tax shall be levied or collected except by authority of law  Article 266  Consolidated Fund of India  Consolidated fund of the State  Article 267  Contingency Fund – President of India

Budget Basics - 3  Annual Financial Statement  Under Article 112 of the Constitution, a statement of estimated receipts and expenditure of the Government of India has to be laid before Parliament in respect of every financial year which runs from 1st April to 31st March  This statement is the AFS and is the main budget document  Comprises of  Consolidated Fund  Contingency Fund  Public Account  Upper House  Vote on Account  Appropriation Bill – Article 114  Finance Bill – Article 110

Some Important Terms  Public Account  Finance Bill  Revenue Budget  Revenue receipt  Revenue Expenditure  Capital Budget  Capital receipts  Capital Expenditure  Deficit  Revenue  Revenue Expenditure – Revenue Receipt  Fiscal  Total Expenditure – Total Receipts (excluding borrowings)  Primary  Fiscal Deficit – Interest payments  Fiscal Policy – Taxation & Govt. spending  Monetary Policy – Interest Rates & Money Supply  Debt Trap

RevenueRevenue & Expenditure

State of the Economy - Overview  GDP growth of 9.5, 9.7, 9.2 and 6.7% in the last 4 years  GDP growth projected – 7.2% ( )  GDP is estimated at Crores ~ $1285 Bn  The drivers of growth  Services and Manufacturing  Estd. To grow at 8.7% & 8.2 % resp.  Growth rate in agriculture for is estimated at -0.2%  Food grain production  in , estimated at million tonnes  Sugarcane million tonnes  -9%  Cotton million bales 

State of the Economy - Overview  Savings Rate – 32.5% of GDP  Capital Formation Rate – 34.9% of GDP  22.8 and 23.5% respectively in 2001  Inflation  – 8.4% - Jan2011 – 8.23%  Average of Apr-Dec 2009 – 1.6%  Corr. CPI Inflation numbers are 9.1% and 11.4%  Exports – -20.3%  Imports – -23.6%  Forex Reserves – 283.5Bn (298Bn)  FDI - $21.0 Bn  Fiscal Deficit – 6.5% (5.9% last year)  Revenue Deficit – 4.6% (5.9% last year)  Primary Deficit – 2.8% (2.5% last year)  Estimated at 6.8, 4.8 and 3.0% at the time of presentation of budget  FRBM??

Outstanding Liabilities

Where the Rupee comes from

Where the Rupee goes to

FM targets for this budget  Reduction in Fiscal Deficit  4.8% in and 4.1% in  Reduction in Inflation  Tame food prices  Target double digit growth  Growth currently in the 8-9% band  Expected to fall to 7-8% if high inflation persists  Infrastructure to be the key  Roads, Ports, Airports, Railways  Infrastructure Debt Fund  Companies Bill  GST  DTC

If you were to be the FM  Inflation  Challenge is to curb inflation without restricting growth  Food Grains  Supply side incentives  Farm subsidies - Fertilisers  Import Duty Cuts  Infrastructure – Stocking Food-grains  Fuel Subsidy  Fiscal Deficit  Govt. Spending  Tax Revenue  Search for new avenues – Gold; Auto; FMCG  Disinvestment

Info on Budget  Complete Budget   State of the Economy   Where the Rupee comes from  where-the-re-will-come-where-the-re-will-go.htm where-the-re-will-come-where-the-re-will-go.htm

Q & A

Receipts & Expenditure

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FRBM (Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management) ActAct  Purpose  Impose limits on Fiscal & Revenue deficit  Elimination of Revenue Deficit by 2009  Reduce this by 0.5% every year  Reduction of Fiscal Deficit to 3% of GDP by 2009  Reduce this by 0.3% every year  Curb borrowing from RBI  Review  Interim Budget  Fiscal Deficit – 5.5% ; Revenue Deficit – 4.4%  FD Cr – Public Debt- 28,98,798Cr – Debt- 42% of GDP  Return to FRBM postponed to post recovery years  Fodder for Thought  US – Gramm-Rudman-Hollings  EU – Growth & Stability Pact

Important Links  (old one but has all the relevant info)   told/347282/ told/347282/   (Excellent critique of the FRBM Act)   (India’s external Debt)